EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 24.05 - 31.05: breakdown to the ranging zone of the correction with good reversal possibility to the bearish - page 2
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 12:48
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Snaps 3-Day Loss Streak (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro paused to digest losses above the 1.08 figure against the US Dollar having turned lower as expected. Near-term support is at 1.0804, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 1.0647. Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib at 1.0930 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 1.1056.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 15:09
2015-05-28 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
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"In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 282,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 274,000 to 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 266,250 to 266,500."
"The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.7 percent for the week ending May 16, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending May 16 was 2,222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,211,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,221,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,229,750. This is the lowest level for this average since November 25, 2000 when it was 2,211,250."==========
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 50 pips range price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 06:19
A fresh factor will drive EUR/USD declines - Deutsche Bank (based on forexlive article)
Cleaner positioning. "Equally, positioning metrics suggest that dollar longs have being pared back. A regression of currency manager index returns against the DXY now points to flat positioning, while the IMM shows a greater than 50% paring back in dollar longs," Deutsche Bank notes.
All about the Fed. "History has been all about the ECB, but the dominant driver of FX is now likely to be the Fed. On that front, monetary policy could come back in focus sooner than many expect," Deutsche Bank argues.
Euro still a good short. "While market focus is very likely to shift to the other side of the Atlantic, EUR/USD is still a good vehicle to express dollar longs. To start with, the euro is a consistent underperformer around Fed turning points," DB advises.
Negative euro flows. "Beyond that, the European flow picture remains very negative. The recent VaR shock in bund yields is likely to further discourage, rather than encourage fixed income inflows," Deutsche Bank adds.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 10:37
Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
A marked downward revision in the preliminary 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the greenback and spur a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve looks to carry its zero-interest rate policy into the second-half of 2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Fed pledges to look past the economic weakness drive by transitory factors, a larger-than-expected contraction in the growth rate may spur a further delay in the central bank’s normalization cycle as it undermines expectations for a stronger recovery.
Nevertheless, increased business outputs paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may offer a better-than-expected GDP print, and prospects for a stronger recovery may spur a bullish reaction in the dollar as the Fed remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Contracts 0.9% or Greater
- Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
- If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: 1Q GDP Report Exceeds Market Forecast- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
4Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EURUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
Even though the preliminary 4Q U.S. GDP print was revised down to an annualized 2.2% from an initial forecast of 2.6%, the print still managed to exceed market expectations for a 2.0% rate of growth. At the same time, Personal Consumption was also revised down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) remained unchanged at 1.1% during the same period. The better-than-expected GDP reading may keep the Fed on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in the year ahead. The greenback strengthened following the report, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.1200 handle to end the North American session at 1.1189.
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 42 pips rangeprice movement by USD - GDP news event