What does the market follow? Is there an implicit nature?
What does the market follow?
Nothing... or everything all at once. Either way, it's tough to discern.
Is there an implicit nature?
No... or yes─total chaos.
That's where the strategy tester comes in. You have an idea or a pattern, and the tester (real market conditions) molds it into what the market actually is.
I mostly agree with that, but I don't spend much time trying to define what the market actually is. To say that the Tester can mold your idea to the market is a bit of a stretch. I'm satisfied to accept that the Tester and I have identified an intermittently recurring pattern in a random data set─which should actually be impossible.
Fun fact: Choosing between math versus opinion is known as the Trader's Paradox.
I mostly agree with that, but I don't spend much time trying to define what the market actually is. To say that the Tester can mold your idea to the market is a bit of a stretch. I'm satisfied to accept that the Tester and I have identified an intermittently recurring pattern in a random data set─which should actually be impossible.
Sometime when I'm coding I start thinking about this ideas, I like thinking the market as a living thing.
But I also agree with the idea of finding a recurring patterns.
Fun fact: Choosing between math versus opinion is known as the Trader's Paradox.
What do you prefer?
In my case, since I'm a mathematician, maths.
I think it’s a bit of both to be honest.
Pure randomness doesn’t really explain why certain patterns keep reappearing, but at the same time trying to “fully understand” the market as something structured often leads to overfitting.
I do find the mathematical approach very interesting, for me it’s essential for identifying edges. The real challenge is knowing when a pattern is still valid and when it’s just noise.
Lately I've been thinking: a trader's journey often starts by trying to fit their strategies into the market. When the market doesn't follow their expectations, frustration follows. I suspect there's something larger—something we don't fully grasp—that is always there ruling.
That's where the strategy tester comes in. You have an idea or a pattern, and the tester (real market conditions) molds it into what the market actually is.
I think it’s a bit of both to be honest.
Pure randomness doesn’t really explain why certain patterns keep reappearing, but at the same time trying to “fully understand” the market as something structured often leads to overfitting.
I do find the mathematical approach very interesting, for me it’s essential for identifying edges. The real challenge is knowing when a pattern is still valid and when it’s just noise.
Yeap It think that it's a bit of both also...
I also think of the market as a living thing.
Panic and greed for sure are a few quite impactful drivers that move markets.
Yeap, but I think that quantifying this is kinda hard.
Yeah that’s a good point, panic and greed definitely play a role, but like you said, quantifying that is the hard part.
I think that’s where the mathematical side becomes interesting, not necessarily to fully “explain” the market, but to capture small, repeatable effects that come from that behavior.
At the same time, it’s easy to mistake noise for structure, so for me it’s always a balance between trusting the data and staying skeptical about it.
I also really like that you have the urge approach this from a mathematical perspective
Math for sure.
I think of my bot as my well-trained pet psychopath─making scary decisions in mere milliseconds with zero emotion.
Osmar, that should seriously be a quote somewhere 😆 I actually laughed out loud when I read that about your “well-trained pet psychopath” bot! And honestly, I totally get it, that’s exactly the kind of ruthless precision a bot needs.
To be clear, that was my post.
Please be careful. My pet has zero tolerance for "error"-prone "statements."
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Lately I've been thinking: a trader's journey often starts by trying to fit their strategies into the market. When the market doesn't follow their expectations, frustration follows. I suspect there's something larger—something we don't fully grasp—that is always there ruling.
That's where the strategy tester comes in. You have an idea or a pattern, and the tester (real market conditions) molds it into what the market actually is.