Discussing the article: "Economic forecasts: Exploring the Python potential"

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Check out the new article: Economic forecasts: Exploring the Python potential.

How to use World Bank economic data for forecasts? What happens when you combine AI models and economics?

Financial markets are a good barometer of the economy. They react to the slightest changes. The result can be either predictable or unexpected. Let's look at examples where readings cause this barometer to fluctuate.

When GDP grows, markets usually react positively. When inflation rises, unrest is usually expected. When unemployment falls, this is usually seen as good news. However, there might be exceptions. Trade balance, interest rates - each indicator affects market sentiment.

As practice shows, markets often react not to the actual result, but to the expectations of the majority of players. "Buy rumors, sell facts" - this old stock market wisdom most accurately reflects the essence of what is happening. Also, the lack of significant changes can cause more volatility in the market than unexpected news.


Author: Yevgeniy Koshtenko

 
Good afternoon, please tell me, what model is the basis of CatBoostRegressor ?
 
Evgeniy Chernish #:
Good afternoon! Please, tell me, what model is the basis of CatBoostRegressor ?

Gradient boosting.

 
Author! Don't copy text from LLM models so obviously - put more effort into adapting it to human language!!!
 

Thanks, interesting article.

I just need to add more price and sentiment signs (COT reports from CFTC) and the grail is inevitable).

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin #:
Author! Don't copy text from LLM models so obviously - make more effort to adapt it to human language!!!

But the article is handwritten

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin #:
Author! Don't copy text from LLM models so obviously - make more effort to adapt it to human language!!!

Moderators are fair and will not let articles from LLM)

 
Aleksey Nikolayev grail is inevitable).

Thank you very much. This is in the plans There will be also an analysis of traders' sentiment in one of the next articles, obtained from MFXBook, but for now there are some problems with it, I didn't find where they store the history of sentiment).

 

What I don't understand is, what does MQ even do?


That's the author's signal above.

 
Yevgeniy Koshtenko #:

Thank you very much. This is in the plans There will be also an analysis of traders' sentiment in one of the next articles, obtained from MFXBook, but for now there are some problems with it, I didn't find where they store the sentiment history).

Take it from here. An old article on the topic.

 
Yevgeniy Koshtenko #:

But the article is handwritten

As an argument - in the text, you can't tell whose code is whose...

"In our code, the forecast function works on probabilities."

"Unfortunately, your code doesn't have an explicit visualisation of the results yet."

And there were a lot of strange things there, I've already got it out of my head, I won't read it again now.

Of course, the topic is interesting, but the text seemed strange in the wording of the thought.

Since we have taken up this issue, I will propose in the next article to check the usefulness of macroeconomic data in general, by training a model using them before their publication. That is, if we were insiders. It is possible to shift in different ways before the beginning of the month for which the analyst.

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