Discussing the article: "Gain An Edge Over Any Market (Part II): Forecasting Technical Indicators" - page 4

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Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
Another interpretation, in terms of causal inference. If the change in the indicator is the reason for the change in the exchange rate, it is leading. If the change in the exchange rate causes the change in the indicator, it is lagging. Therefore, all technical indicators based on prices are lagging.

When the coach says "repeat after me", does the student lag behind in repetition?

No, the student just repeats.
He was late once when he came to practice later than the scheduled time.

Above, the participants refer to repetition as tardiness.

And in a general context, they confuse prediction with latency.

They mixed three concepts into one pot and operate with them, choosing the wrong research vector.


Indicators repeat prices. They do not lag.

Only the quote on its way to the terminal and the indicator calculation time lags (lag).

And 99% of brokerage centres and the same number of people on this forum are trying to fight with something that does not exist.

Indicators do not have non-linear and long calculation to say "The forecast is correct, but while the calculation was going on, the price has already gone down to the target".
There is no stuffing, there is nothing to lag.
 
Ivan Butko #:

When the coach says "repeat after me," does the student delay repeating?

No, the student just repeats.
He was late once when he came to practice later than the scheduled time.

Above, the participants refer to repetition as tardiness.

And in a general context, they confuse prediction with latency.

They mixed three concepts into one pot and operate with them, choosing the wrong research vector.


Indicators repeat prices. They do not lag.

Only the quote on its way to the terminal and the indicator calculation time lags (lag).

And 99% of brokerage centres and the same number of people on this forum are trying to fight with something that does not exist.

Indicators do not have non-linear and long calculation to say "The forecast is correct, but while the calculation was going on, the price has already gone down to the target".
There is no stuffing, there is nothing to lag.
This is a well-established terminology, which I don't know where it came from :) I agree that we can do without it. What we have is what we have. There are leading indicators in macroeconomics, maybe from there. Or from the DSP. By analogy, everything that is not leading is lagging.

Stanislav's idea is that if indicators forecast poorly on history, then forecasting of these indicators does not give anything.
 
If we consider ASCTrend, then buying on classical marks will obviously lag the signal, because we will always buy somewhere at the top. But if we sell there, with a good trend downwards, it will be already selling at the top.
 
You can't beat the market! It's invincible!
 
webgopnik #:
You can't beat the market! It's invincible!

for the hand-wringers and especially those who believe in their inner voice.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:

"The advance or lag is defined in relation to the original series. If an indicator can forecast prices, it is leading. If it cannot, it is lagging :)"

🔥🔥🔥🙌 This definition right here💪👏
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
This is a well-established terminology, which I don't know where it came from :) I agree that we can do without it. What we have is what we have. There are leading indicators in macroeconomics, maybe from there. Or from the DSP. By analogy, everything that is not leading is lagging.

Stanislav's idea is that if indicators forecast poorly on history, then forecasting of these indicators does not give anything.

Like the relationship between stock indexes and corporate tax receipts collected by the Government.


 
webgopnik #:
You can't beat the market! It's invincible!
Then why are you here? 

I do not mean that in a rude way. What I mean is why bother playing the game,  if you don't think winning is even possible? 
 
Gamuchirai Zororo Ndawana #:

For example, the relationship between stock indices and corporate tax revenues collected by the government.


Yeah, something like that :)

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:

Yeah, something like that :)

Maximka, have you discovered new markets for yourself, there are smiles in every post

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