Discussion of article "Moral expectation in trading" - page 3
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If we assign some desired moral expectation to the transaction, then we (from the property moral expectation is less than mathematical expectation) obtain this inequality:
p* L * TP * PV - (1-p) *L * SL *PV > F*D
i.e., instead of finding the value of TP at which the moral expectation becomes positive, we start looking for the value of TP such that the mathematical expectation becomes greater than a given value.
Counting through this formula, we will get the estimation actually through the expectation (it is, so to say, the estimation from above - less real, because there is no deposit in it). And we would like to get the estimation through the moral expectation - the estimation from below.
Counting through this formula, we will get an estimate actually through the expectation (it is, so to speak, an estimate from above - less real, since there is no deposit in it). And we would like to get an estimation through moral - an estimation from below.
The bottom estimate will be obtained if we take the inequality - moral expectation is greater than zero, as in the article
The bottom score is obtained by taking the inequality - moral expectation is greater than zero, as in the article
Well, we've gone round in circles. I took moral expectation greater than 0, in the form of F * D. I wanted to turn the formula in the opposite direction, that is, purely computationally.
If anyone finds errors in my calculations or the principle of building a grid of SL vs TP lines at a given deposit and moral expectation, please let me know.
If it's not too much trouble, could you please explain the essence of the article in theses or on your fingers? Abstract concepts are hard to understand.
Here, we take an Expert Advisor on mashes, mashes cross and.... then what? Is there some special lot calculation, TP and SL calculation? That is, we don't close on the reverse signal of the mashes?
TP and SL are set in the settings. Positions are closed only by them, the reverse signal does not affect the closing. The lot is calculated by the probability of winning and the size of TP and SL
TP and SL are set in the settings. Positions are closed only on them, the reverse signal does not affect the closing. The lot is calculated by the probability of winning and the size of TP and SL
Thank you
Done. Deposit 10000. Lot 1. EURUSD. SL(by X)/TP(by Y) curves as a function of win probability and moral expectation as a percentage of deposit.
My formula is correct.
TP and SL are set in the settings. Positions are closed only on them, the reverse signal does not affect the closing. The lot is calculated by the probability of winning and the size of TP and SL
I would prefer the opposite - to determine SL/TP by lot size and probability of winning. ;-)
The moral expectation is a purely theoretical thing, which has nothing to do with practice....
It is possible to write a PhD thesis, but it is impossible to earn money from all this nonsense....
The logic here is elementary! Any "expectation" is looking into the FUTURE, and this chip has never worked... unless you are a psychic, like VANGA....