We CAN NOT predict the market ! - page 2

Yohana Parmi
10777
Sopany Zemmy:

We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market.
Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots.
...

Hello,

I completely agree with your opinion.
Due to the fact, prices can move based on real transactions made by humans.
Market participants around the world who make those real trades.
Including each central bank will intervene according to their interests at that time.
 - So we as followers can only see the results of their transactions through price charts in trading software.

Sopany Zemmy:

...
All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following.
People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true.
Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.

If we talk about 'trend' then it will be closely related to time scale, time frame.
There are conditions where the higher time frame we see it as an uptrend, but in the lower time frame we see it as a downtrend.
And on other timescales, the trend is sideways (ranging).
 - Experts believe that the larger scale will dominate the lower time scale.

I agree with you, because of the fact that many of us will often be wrong in predicting the price movement.
When people are sure of a direction movement and then open new positions,
 - but some time later market participants and interested central banks have taken the opposite action
 - that made prices return to their original prices, ranging (sideways).

Many people realized this condition too late, because at that time we often expected the price to rally in one direction.
Meanwhile, central banks are always trying hard to balance their currencies.
 - Therefore, before the price actually goes in a direction, it will generally start with ranging. 

Any field of business or profession must have challenges and difficulties.
In essence, compared to other professions, forex trading has a much more difficult challenge, especially in trading psychology. 
(overconfidence, greedy, wants to get rich quick, too quick in making decisions, have not made a trade plan, etc.)
The biggest enemy for forex traders is their own psychology, and usually they realize it too late.

An expert known as the father of world traders said, '.. before you understand the laws of the market, stay away.' 
So we must first understand the laws of the market before entering in forex trading, commodities and so on.

So what should we do? - In my opinion, it is true about the laws of the market. 
Supply and demand is one of the important keys in price movements.
At the same time you can develop other original ways of your analysis,
 - but still adhere to the rules of market law.

Good luck.

Enrique Dangeroux #:

...
The concept never changed: Buy low, sell high. 

I agree with you.

Daniel Cioca
652
Daniel Cioca  
I believe that most of us cannot predict the market, but some of us can… and they are not only predicting, but they are driving the market … 
I_See_Noises
5
I_See_Noises  
Daniel Cioca #:
I believe that most of us cannot predict the market, but some of us can… and they are not only predicting, but they are driving the market … 

I've seen this, or something that looks like it. And it's uncanny. I know people that "simply get it right". And I get on with the feeling that I am a miserable insect in trade.

But still, I'll keep rowing up the river as needed until I get where I want.

Hansen
256
Hansen  
Sure bro, it's about probability. If the profit probability is good then you go, if the probability is lower you can leave it.
Hoang Anh Khoa
4949
Hoang Anh Khoa  
Sopany Zemmy:

We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market. Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots. All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following. People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true. Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.

If you want predict,using Elliot trading example Elliot wave Prophet v.v...;using  WoodiesCCi,Mbfx, Darvas Box ,Break Box,Turtle trading(like) , Currency Streng Meter Dashboard (CSM) trading with price action trading or Ichimoku Indicator(like cause can predict and trend trade) with trend trading.You also learn Money Management trading.

Everything is relative.

Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is always limited as imagination is the circle around the world.Enstein

Perfection is not something that cannot be added, but something that cannot be reduced.
David Diez
2813
David Diez  

Year 1: well there is a lot of money here, I'm gonna make some scalping.

Year 2: wow I've got an excellent long-term vision, I'll step into chartism.

Year 3: **** I know too many things and I can't figure how can I make money better, I'll step into trading signals.

Year 4: meh trading signals got me stressed and they are just another scam at the end, I'll step into trading advisors.

Year 5: **** that martingale made me lose almost every penny I had, sure this could be done much better... I'll step into coding.

Year 6: :__( martingales don't work, I wonder how could I step back into years 1 & 2 by doing this...

Year 7: ...

Achmad Muchtar
193
Achmad Muchtar  
Fernando Carreiro #:

The only constant in the universe is change, yet it is quite orderly and chaotic at the same time. The same applies to trading and life.

Humans have evolved because they are able to adapt themselves and their environment. The same applies to trading — Adapt to the constant change!

True. Ability to adapt to a new change that makes you keep going in trading and in life as well.

Sopany Zemmy
462
Sopany Zemmy  
David Diez #:

Year 1: well there is a lot of money here, I'm gonna make some scalping.

Year 2: wow I've got an excellent long-term vision, I'll step into chartism.

Year 3: **** I know too many things and I can't figure how can I make money better, I'll step into trading signals.

Year 4: meh trading signals got me stressed and they are just another scam at the end, I'll step into trading advisors.

Year 5: **** that martingale made me lose almost every penny I had, sure this could be done much better... I'll step into coding.

Year 6: :__( martingales don't work, I wonder how could I step back into years 1 & 2 by doing this...

Year 7: ...

:D. Exactly.. that i was trying to say. we have to addapt the changes.

Eddie_83
68
Eddie_83  
Sopany Zemmy:

We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market. Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots. All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following. People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true. Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.

Read Paul wilmott's quantitative finance chapter called random behavior of assets, 
Evgeniy Zhdan
23323
The market is chaos. Mere mortals are able to predict its direction. Therefore, classic trading with one order with stop loss and take profit will break even at best. This is at its best.