Of course we can predict the market, otherwise trading would not work... I do not understand this thread...
You did not answer the question.
Besides you are wrong. The concept never changed: Buy low, sell high.
We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market. Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots. All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following. People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true. Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.
Then why do books such as Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager exist?
The market does what the market wants to do; but we know it is continuous sine like wave with ups and downs! The biggest and hardest challenge is learning how to deal with expectations and failures. Time and extra ordinary if not supernatural patience and discipline are fundamental requirements.
Year 1: well there is a lot of money here, I'm gonna make some scalping.
Year 2: wow I've got an excellent long-term vision, I'll step into chartism.
Year 3: **** I know too many things and I can't figure how can I make money better, I'll step into trading signals.
Year 4: meh trading signals got me stressed and they are just another scam at the end, I'll step into trading advisors.
Year 5: **** that martingale made me lose almost every penny I had, sure this could be done much better... I'll step into coding.
Year 6: :__( martingales don't work, I wonder how could I step back into years 1 & 2 by doing this...
Year 7: ...
Year 12: Its too easy , no its gold mine.
100% agree!The individual trade is relatively insignificant. Even a random system can have a good winning streak. But the more trades, the more likely you are to come close to the "real" profit expectation.If you flip a coin 10 times, results like 7:3 or 8:2 are not rare. If you flip the coin 1000 times, you are very likely to get a result that is very close to 500:500. As you said, that Law of Large Numbers.
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