We CAN NOT predict the market ! - page 3

trustfultrading
129
trustfultrading  
Evgeniy Zhdan #:
The market is chaos. Mere mortals are able to predict its direction. Therefore, classic trading with one order with stop loss and take profit will break even at best. This is at its best.

Of course we can predict the market, otherwise trading would not work... I do not understand this thread...

Antonio Simon Del Vecchio
8398
Enrique Dangeroux #:

You did not answer the question.

Besides you are wrong. The concept never changed: Buy low, sell high.

And what is expensive and what is cheap?
Stephen Reynolds
42253
Sopany Zemmy:

We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market. Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots. All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following. People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true. Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.

Then why do books such as Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager exist?   

ZevMoshi7
13
ZevMoshi7  
Sopany Zemmy:

We cannot predict the direction of the market nor a point of reference for the market. Because basically the market is very dynamic and is determined by humans, not robots. All we can do is only follow the current market trend, and take immediate action when something happens against the direction we are following. People are easily influenced and exposed to delusions, over a concept or theory that is believed to be true. Whereas in trading the probability of being right is 50%, as well as the possibility of being wrong is 50% as well.

The market does what the market wants to do; but we know it is continuous sine like wave with ups and downs! The biggest and hardest challenge is learning how to deal with expectations and failures. Time and extra ordinary if not supernatural patience and discipline are fundamental requirements. 

Dao Liang Ding
287
Dao Liang Ding  
The market is chaotic and non-linear, but traders must have consistent logic, clear entry and exit rules, stick to it, and profit is in sight
John Winsome Munar
3874
You don't have to "predict." As long as you found your edge, just apply it as routinely as possible bearing in mind Law of Large Numbers.
Farrukh Aleem
3822
David Diez #:

Year 1: well there is a lot of money here, I'm gonna make some scalping.

Year 2: wow I've got an excellent long-term vision, I'll step into chartism.

Year 3: **** I know too many things and I can't figure how can I make money better, I'll step into trading signals.

Year 4: meh trading signals got me stressed and they are just another scam at the end, I'll step into trading advisors.

Year 5: **** that martingale made me lose almost every penny I had, sure this could be done much better... I'll step into coding.

Year 6: :__( martingales don't work, I wonder how could I step back into years 1 & 2 by doing this...

Year 7: ...

Year 12: Its too easy , no its gold mine.

trustfultrading
129
trustfultrading  
John Winsome Munar #:
You don't have to "predict." As long as you found your edge, just apply it as routinely as possible bearing in mind Law of Large Numbers.

100% agree!
The individual trade is relatively insignificant. Even a random system can have a good winning streak. But the more trades, the more likely you are to come close to the "real" profit expectation.
If you flip a coin 10 times, results like 7:3 or 8:2 are not rare. If you flip the coin 1000 times, you are very likely to get a result that is very close to 500:500. As you said, that Law of Large Numbers.

Marian Nelu Iopsu
298
Marian Nelu Iopsu  
if one thing is made by a human it can be predicted with highest degree of accuracy. but if we talk about market, we talk about a huge mass of humans acting and influencing it so the accuracy of prediction drops alot. then we talk about probabilities. examplea trade based on an indicator alone say RSI or another, has less probability to turn green than a trade based on RSI filtered by a let's say MACD. except investors that just buy and hold, traders try to buy low and sell high, that is the goal of everyone, call it retail trader or bank or whale. do anyone predict? no, but everyone tries to and in doing so everyone is acting based on what in their opinion has the biggest probability to happen. while the probability of beeing right or wrong is 50%, let's take note that a minimum 70% of the retail traders are losing money and that is because different actors on market have different means to act and influence it. big players like banks have a leverage over the retailers
John Winsome Munar
3874
trustfultrading #:

100% agree!
The individual trade is relatively insignificant. Even a random system can have a good winning streak. But the more trades, the more likely you are to come close to the "real" profit expectation.
If you flip a coin 10 times, results like 7:3 or 8:2 are not rare. If you flip the coin 1000 times, you are very likely to get a result that is very close to 500:500. As you said, that Law of Large Numbers.

Well explained