is on bearish with market rally started on open W1 bar; Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator came to be very close to the price for possible breakout of the price movement (good to open buy trade in the future)
is on bearish ranging market condition
If D1 price will break 1142.69 support level on close D1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing (good to open sell trade)If D1 price will break 1177.81
resistance level so we will have the secondary market rally within the primary bearish with the possibility of the reversal of the price movement from bearish to bullish conditionIf not so it will be bearish ranging between 1142.69 and 1177.81 levels
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on XAUUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-03-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
2015-03-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
2015-03-23 15:45 GMT (or 17:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Fischer Speech]
2015-03-24 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2015-03-24 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
2015-03-25 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
2015-03-27 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2015-03-27 19:45 GMT (or 21:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on XAUUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearishTREND : market rally
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.03.20 17:40
newdigital, 2014.01.06 18:38
newdigital, 2015.03.23 16:28
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Existing Home Sales] = Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home
triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are
done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and
brokers are paid to execute the transaction.
U.S. Existing Home Sales Climb 1.2% In February
After reporting a steep drop in existing home sales in the U.S. in the
previous, the National Association of Realtors released a report on
Monday showing a rebound in existing home sales in the month of
NAR said existing home sales rose 1.2 percent to an
annual rate of 4.88 million in February after tumbling 4.9 percent to a
rate of 4.82 million in January. Economists had expected existing home
sales to climb to a rate of 4.90 million.
With the monthly
increase, existing home sales are up by 4.7 percent compared to a rate
of 4.66 million in the same month a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR
chief economist, said, "Insufficient supply appears to be hampering
prospective buyers in several areas of the country and is hiking prices
to near unsuitable levels."
"Stronger price growth is a boon for
homeowners looking to build additional equity, but it continues to be an
obstacle for current buyers looking to close before rates rise," he
The report said housing inventory climbed 1.6 percent to
1.89 million existing homes available for sale at the end of February
but were down 0.5 percent year-over-year.
The homes for sale at
the end of the month represent 4.6 months of supply at the current sales
pace, unchanged from the previous month.
Tuesday morning, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of February.
Economists expect new home sales to drop to a rate of 462,000 in the month of February from a rate of 481,000 in January.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, M5, 2015.03.23
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
XAUUSD M5: 6.03 dollars (603 pips) price movement by USD - Existing Home Sales news event
newdigital, 2015.03.21 08:33
GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish
are sharply higher this week with the precious metal advancing 2.14% to
trade at 1183 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes
on the back of the FOMC
policy meeting where Yellen and company talked down expectations for a
mid-2015 rate hike with the central bank lowering expectations for
growth and inflation.
Even though the FOMC removed the ‘patience’ language
from the forward-guidance, the updated projections coming out of the
central bank dragged on the dollar as Fed officials pushed back their
interest rate forecast. Indeed, the downward shift in the interest rate
dot-plot raises the risk of seeing the Fed retain the zero-interest rate
policy (ZIRP) into the second-half of the year, with the normalization
cycle likely be on a more gradual trajectory. Accordingly, the USD
may get a brief respite from its recent rally with gold set to stage a
near-term recovery amid softer interest rate expectations and a subdued
outlook for inflation.
Looking into next week, traders will be closely
eyeing key US data points with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Durable
Goods Orders & the final read on the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
report on tap. Despite the cautions tone laid out by Chair Yellen,
stickiness in the core rate of inflation along with an upward rising in
the growth rate may cap dollar-losses in the days ahead as market
participants now anticipate the central bank to take a softer approach
in the normalization cycle.
From a technical standpoint, gold has now rebounded off the key support region we’ve been noting over the past few weeks
at 1150/51. Price action this week completes a sizeable key outside
reversal candle off of a critical support region with the rally taking
prices briefly through the 23.6% retracement of the decline off the
January highs at 1181 before settling just below. Look for near-term
support at 1167/68 which is defined by the March 18th reversal-day close & the January stretch low.
newdigital, 2015.03.21 14:29
Gold forecast for the week of March 23, 2015, Technical Analysis
The gold markets
as you can see initially fell during the course of the week but found
enough support at the 1140 level to turn things back around and break
out to the upside. Now that we have cleared the 1180 level, we feel that
this market will more than likely head to the $1200 level. However, we
recognize that you will have to be able to deal with quite a bit of
volatility. Regardless though, we have no interest in selling for the
longer-term until we break down below the 1140 level, which is something
that we haven’t done quite yet.
newdigital, 2015.03.24 13:40
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
Consumer Price Index Summary"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in shelter, energy, and food indexes all contributing. The energy index rose after a long series of declines, increasing 1.0 percent as the gasoline index turned up after falling in recent months. The food index, unchanged last month, also rose in February, though major grocery store food group indexes were mixed. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January. In addition to shelter, the indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, tobacco, and airline fares were among those that increased. The medical care index was unchanged, while the personal care index declined. The all items index was unchanged over the past 12 months, after showing a 0.1-percent decline for the 12 months ending January. Over the last 12 months the food index rose 3.0 percent and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent. These increases were offset by an 18.8-percent decline in the energy index."
XAUUSD, M5, 2015.03.24
XAUUSD M5: 483 pips ($4.83) price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2015.03.25 04:21
Gold set for fifth day of gains on U.S. rate speculation (based on reuters article)
Gold hits 2-1/2 week high above $1,190/oz
Euro zone data helps euro strength vs dollar
$1,200/oz seen as major resistance level
(Updates prices, adds comment)
Gold rose to a 2-1/2
week high on Tuesday, rising for the fifth straight session on
growing expectations that a U.S. interest rate increase could be
pushed to September.
Spot gold climbed to its highest level since March 6
at $1,195.30 an ounce before paring gains to trade up 0.4
percent at $1,193.70 by 2:26 p.m. EDT (1826 GMT).
U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose $3.70, or
0.3 percent, to settle at $1,187.70 an ounce.
Prices were on course to post their longest winning streak
since January last year, with investors favoring bullion over
the past few days because of a slump in the dollar after the
Federal Reserve's cautious stance on the U.S. economy and
diminishing likelihood of an early rate increase.
The metal, which does not pay any interest, had suffered
from earlier speculation of higher U.S. rates as early as June.
"Since the Fed (statement), we've seen a pretty solid
uptrend under the premise that the dark cloud of a rising
interest rate environment has been pushed further off in the
distance and there's some clear sailing ahead in the near term,"
said David Meger, director of metals trading for High Ridge
Futures in Chicago.
newdigital, 2015.03.25 10:33
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (based on dailyfx article)
Prices look poised for another move
above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
at 1205.58 exposes the 50% level at 1225.04. Alternatively, a turn
below the 23.6% Fib at 1181.51 targets the 1166.67-1170.09 area (channel
top resistance-turned-support, 14.6% retracement).
newdigital, 2015.03.25 14:09
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Unexpected Decrease In February
With orders for transportation equipment showing a notable pullback,
the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing that new
orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods unexpectedly decreased in
the month of February.
The report said durable goods orders fell
by 1.4 percent in February following a downwardly revised 2.0 percent
increase in January.
The drop in orders came as a surprise to
economists, who had expected orders to climb by 0.7 percent compared to
the 2.8 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
a 3.5 percent drop in transportation orders, durable goods orders still
fell by 0.4 percent in February after sliding by 0.7 percent in
January. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to rise by 0.3
XAUUSD, M5, 2015.03.25
XAUUSD M5: 356 pips ($3.56) price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event