is on bearish ranging with 1.0461 support level
is on bearish for breaking 1.1097 support level on open MN1 bar
If D1 price will break 1.0461 support level on close D1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing (good to open sell trade)If D1 price will break 1.1041
resistance level so we will have the secondary market rally within the primary bearish market conditionIf not so it will be bearish ranging between 1.0461 and 1.1041 levels
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-03-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
2015-03-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
2015-03-23 16:20 GMT (or 18:20 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Fischer Speech]
2015-03-24 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2015-03-24 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
2015-03-25 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
2015-03-25 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
2015-03-26 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2015-03-26 13:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Lockhart Speech]
2015-03-27 10:30 GMT (or 12:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Fischer Speech]
2015-03-27 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2015-03-27 19:45 GMT (or 21:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearishTREND : ranging
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.03.20 17:40
newdigital, 2015.03.23 11:31
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Greece Current Account] = The current account, released by the Bank of Greece
is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services and
interest payments into and out of Greece. A current account surplus
indicates that the flow of capital into Greece exceeds the capital
reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro,
whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Greek current account deficit widens in January
Greece's current account
deficit widened in January compared to the same month a year
earlier while tourism receipts rose slightly, according to
central bank data published on Monday.
The deficit stood at 0.85 billion euros ($917 million)
versus a deficit of 0.34 billion euros in January 2014, mainly
due to a drop in the export of goods.
Tourism revenues rose slightly to 170 million euros in
January from 156 million euros in the same month in 2014.
KEY FIGURES (bln euros) 2015 2014
January -0.847 -0.336
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.03.23
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 61 pips price movement by EUR - Greece Current Account news event
newdigital, 2015.03.23 18:39
[USD - FOMC Member Fischer Speech] = Due to deliver a speech titled "Monetary Policy Lessons and the Way Ahead" at the Economic Club of New York. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key
interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop
subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
"As the FOMC responds to incoming information, it will continue to
be absolutely transparent in explaining its decisions and how and why
they contribute to meeting the legally mandated dual goals of monetary
policy. That transparency serves three purposes: First, it is required
if we are to be accountable to the public; second, it is the best way of
ensuring that monetary policy decisionmakers continue to follow
sensible and rational policies; and third, it is the best way of
informing the private sector of the basis on which monetary policy
decisions are made and will continue to be made.
With respect to forward guidance: its role has been and continues
to be important in the long period in which eventual liftoff has been
the key interest rate decision confronting the FOMC and the focus of
market expectations. However, as monetary policy is normalized, interest
rates will sometimes have to be increased, and sometimes decreased.
Market participants will be able to form their expectations of future
interest rates on the basis of three elements: first, the policy record
of the FOMC, which might be approximated as a reaction function; second,
their analysis of the current economic and financial situation and
outlook; and, third, whatever guidance the FOMC will provide as to how
it sees monetary policy decisions likely to unfold given the economic
situation and outlook. It is likely that explicit long-term forward
guidance will play less of a role in monetary policy after liftoff than
it has during the past few years.
Policymakers' behavior is sometimes summarized as a reaction
function, which can be an algebraic description of how the interest rate
is set--for instance, a Taylor-type rule in which the federal funds
rate reacts simultaneously to the rate of inflation and expectations of
inflation as well as to the rate of unemployment and expected changes in
the level of unemployment.21 However,
a simple rule of that sort will, by necessity, leave out many factors
that appropriately influence monetary policy, such as financial
developments, temporary divergences in relationships between different
measures of economic activity or inflation, and the like. A simple rule
can provide the starting point for the decisions made by the FOMC, but
in reaching their interest rate decision, members of the Committee will
always have to use their judgment to identify the special circumstances
confronting the economy, and how to react to them.
To ensure that monetary policy operates in as stabilizing a way
as possible, the FOMC will continue to set out, as clearly as it can,
the basis of every decision that it makes, and to provide guidance on
its expectations of future decisions. And on the basis of the
information provided by the FOMC, of their understanding of the
historical record of Fed policy decisions, and of their analysis and
expectations of the state of the economy and, particularly, the
financial markets, market participants will make the best decisions they
EURUSD M5: 47 pips price movement by FOMC Member Fischer Speaks news event
newdigital, 2015.03.20 19:22
The euro is going bananas (based on businessinsider article)
The euro is climbing against the dollar again on Friday, rising more than 1.7% to as high as $1.085 as of around 12:40 pm ET.
The euro spiked against the dollar when the Fed's latest decisions
came out, as the US central bank looked less likely to hike rates in
June (which would typically strengthen the dollar).
As it stands so far, the euro's depreciation bottomed out five days
ago, below $1.05. A lot of people are still expecting parity by the end
newdigital, 2015.03.24 10:50
EUR/USD continues higher (based on finances.com article)
newdigital, 2015.03.24 13:40
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
Consumer Price Index Summary"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in shelter, energy, and food indexes all contributing. The energy index rose after a long series of declines, increasing 1.0 percent as the gasoline index turned up after falling in recent months. The food index, unchanged last month, also rose in February, though major grocery store food group indexes were mixed. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January. In addition to shelter, the indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, tobacco, and airline fares were among those that increased. The medical care index was unchanged, while the personal care index declined. The all items index was unchanged over the past 12 months, after showing a 0.1-percent decline for the 12 months ending January. Over the last 12 months the food index rose 3.0 percent and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent. These increases were offset by an 18.8-percent decline in the energy index."
EURUSD, M5, 2015.03.24
EURUSD M5: 55 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2015.03.24 15:51
Euro gains against dollar on robust PMI surveys (based on reuters article)
Robust French, German PMIs help euro
Fed's Williams repeats mid-year rate rise may be
Dollar still feeling impact of last week's dovish Fed
The euro rose for the third day
running against the dollar on Tuesday, bolstered by
better-than-expected euro zone business surveys that pointed to
a broader recovery taking place in the currency bloc.
The dollar was under pressure, with investors awaiting
consumer price inflation data later in the day. A softer number,
as was registered earlier on Tuesday in Britain, could boost
expectations that the Federal Reserve will be in no hurry to
raise interest rates.
San Francisco Fed chief John Williams weighed in on the
debate over the dollar's gains, saying the U.S. economy could
handle a stronger currency and pointing to the chance of an
interest rate rise in June.
Other Federal Reserve officials, and new forecasts from the
U.S. central bank, have cast doubt on how much more appreciation
of the dollar the Fed will easily tolerate and raised
speculation it will push back any tightening of monetary policy.
"The bigger question of whether the economic recovery has
any legs remains unanswered," Societe Generale analysts said in
"In the meantime, after breaking above key resistance at
$1.0940 yesterday, the euro's next technical target is $1.1070
and we'd be more interested in re-selling there than in looking
for much follow-though from this morning's initial weakness."
newdigital, 2015.03.25 04:05
I don't trust the market, but EURUSD at a key test (based on forexlive article)
price moved below the lower trend line on the hourly chart and made new
lows. The price correction higher has taken the pair back toward the
high corrective price from the day after the FOMC spike at the 1.0918
(see red horizontal line). If the rally can stall here, the seller may
have more control. If it does not, the bias should reverse."
Something Interesting in Financial Video March 2015
newdigital, 2015.03.25 10:53
Video: Euro Traders Should Watch Greece’s Financial Health Closely
The Euro has tumbled on the sharp move towards accommodation from the
ECB. While a dovish policy trend from the central bank will keep the
pressure on the currency, another round of panicked selling behind the
currency is unlikely to occur on a monetary policy basis. Rather, it is
likely to come through financial trouble. And, Greece is staring at
imminent trouble. The country's leaders are scrambling to come up with
reforms that would open up funds from its creditors to offer a
medium-term chance to pay down its debts while also supporting growth.
However, the risk may be more severe and imminent than many expect. A
financial crisis may explode before officials come up with a solution.
We discuss the risk Greece poses to the Euro and what to watch in
today's Strategy Video.
newdigital, 2015.03.25 14:09
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Unexpected Decrease In February
With orders for transportation equipment showing a notable pullback,
the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing that new
orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods unexpectedly decreased in
the month of February.
The report said durable goods orders fell
by 1.4 percent in February following a downwardly revised 2.0 percent
increase in January.
The drop in orders came as a surprise to
economists, who had expected orders to climb by 0.7 percent compared to
the 2.8 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
a 3.5 percent drop in transportation orders, durable goods orders still
fell by 0.4 percent in February after sliding by 0.7 percent in
January. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to rise by 0.3
EURUSD, M5, 2015.03.25
EURUSD M5: 40 pips price range movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event