Is there a universal system? - page 5
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I'll say it now. Ahem... As a theoretical physicist, so to speak.
Gentlemen!
All you need to know about the market is that we are dealing with a non-Markovian process. The trend is what "memory" is as a self-organising structure.
Since our knowledge about non-Markovian processes is zero, it follows that any method is good, as long as it describes the "memory", even in ridiculous and crazy (at first sight!) terms. Go ahead!
Thank you for your feedback. The recommendation not to read anything is walking in an information vacuum - it's the way to get there. For faster progress it is not bad to learn about the achievements of other researchers. Study in such conditions (in the darkness) is very, very difficult. Yes, we will find working methods, but at what price?
Regarding simulators and simulators - a few years ago, when MT5 wasn't even a thing, I made myself an Expert Advisor, which allows you to open/close orders in MT4 Tester manually. So I know programmatically that there is no better simulator than a demo account.
But you still need to look at the openings made by other traders. It would be foolish not to. This is not the question. It is possible to have a lot of diplomas, but not to be able to work efficiently with information. The question is whether a person will be able to make sense of their findings?
And the second question: How many years will it take him to dig through mountains of information, watch thousands of minutes of training videos, draw hundreds of charts, read hundreds of recommended books, get out what seems to be valuable information?
Mountains are not necessary. I say that everything depends on one's ability to process information. In this case, the algorithm will be as follows: having realized in the market and in practice that one cannot trade successfully without special knowledge, one must find and master a very simple primer that gives the general picture of the market and is not overloaded with details. It should be something from the "Amusing Tomorrow" series, a series of current books for children (Amusing Mathematics, Amusing Physics, etc.). Such a book gives a kind of view of the terrain from the top.
When a map of the area is already in front of your eyes, it is time to go into detail. He already knows clearly what he has to try. The field of market trading methods is not endless, so the time for trial and error will not be long. But only if a systematic approach is used. Let me explain. For example, I like the idea of using the sliders to determine the trend. And there is no need to read a whole pile of books - it is enough to take from this pile only the information about the sliders. After several books, a person will notice that the information starts repeating itself. Therefore, he/she will start to take information about slips from every new source, which he/she didn't have before. In order not to get too much information, he should define criteria, according to which he will decide that it is necessary and enough.
In general, it turns out that here I am now chewing up a textbook on formal logic (Section of hypotheses about possibility - about existence - and so on). But unfortunately, though logic contains a set of cool tools for information processing, it does not teach HOW to use these tools correctly. This is partially taught by psychology. So it turns out that a person must first learn how to process arrays of information - to be able to work with information. To be able to work well professionally. This in real life is very valuable - in all areas of activity, where you need to make a decision and build a plan of action. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people say to themselves (and often not in words or in thoughts, but in feelings) approximately the following: "I don't need any logic, I can think anyway...".
As a result, having come across an information sea, he is simply unable to cope with it.
A man can act consciously only according to a pre-made plan. If he does not have a clear plan of HOW one should act in his mind, he will not be able to make any sensible plan. Therefore, he will not be able to do anything sensible either. He will simply have nothing to do. Or he will think he has, only he will not be aware of the fact that he is so damned wrong.
We are simply too lazy to do the thinking work. The mere phrase that it is the lot of fucking intellectuals already cuts off a lot of people from even trying to put their thoughts and consequently their deeds in order. We do not even suspect that a lot of our troubles are the results of our own wrong decisions. So we blame people around us - they are visible to the eye, while our own mistakes are not visible - they are not physical bodies, but objects of the inner world. And we are not accustomed to pay attention to them.
In short, how long a man will dig through necessary information depends on its availability and his skills of work with information. It depends on the level of preliminary preparation.
Mountains are not needed. I say that everything depends on one's ability to process information. In this case, the algorithm will be as follows: having realized in the market and in practice that one cannot trade successfully without special knowledge, one must find and master a very simple primer that gives the general picture of the market and is not overloaded with details. It should be something from the "Amusing Tomorrow" series, a series of current books for children (Amusing Mathematics, Amusing Physics, etc.). Such a book gives a kind of view of the terrain from the top.
When a map of the area is already in front of your eyes, it is time to go into detail. He already knows clearly what he has to try. The field of market trading methods is not endless, so the time for trial and error will not be long. But only if a systematic approach is used. Let me explain. For example, I like the idea of using the sliders to determine the trend. And there is no need to read a whole pile of books - it is enough to take from this pile only the information about the sliders. After several books, a person will notice that the information starts repeating itself. Therefore, he/she will start to take information about slips from every new source, which he/she didn't have before. In order not to get too much information, he should define criteria, according to which he will decide that it is necessary and enough.
In general, it turns out that here I am now chewing up a textbook on formal logic (Section of hypotheses about possibility - about existence - and so on). But unfortunately, though logic contains a set of cool tools for information processing, it does not teach HOW to use these tools correctly. This is partially taught by psychology. So it turns out that a person must first learn how to process arrays of information - to be able to work with information. To be able to work well professionally. This in real life is very valuable - in all areas of activity, where you need to make a decision and build a plan of action. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people say to themselves (and often not in words or in thoughts, but in feelings) approximately the following: "I don't need any logic, I can think anyway...".
As a result, having come across an information sea, he is simply unable to cope with it.
A man can act consciously only according to a pre-made plan. If he does not have a clear plan of HOW to act in his mind, he will not be able to make any sensible plan. Therefore, he will not be able to do anything sensible either. He will simply have nothing to do. Or he will think he has, only he will not be aware of the fact that he is so damned wrong.
We are simply too lazy to do the thinking work. The mere phrase that it is the lot of fucking intellectuals already cuts off a lot of people from even trying to get their thoughts and consequently their affairs in order. We do not even suspect that a lot of our troubles are the results of our own wrong decisions. So we blame people around us - they are visible to the eye, while our own mistakes are not visible - they are not physical bodies, but objects of the inner world. And we are not accustomed to pay attention to them.
In short, how long a man will dig through necessary information depends on its availability and his skills of work with information. It depends on the level of preliminary preparation.
http://forex.kbpauk.ru/printthread.php/Board/razvod/main/380208/type/post
http://forex.kbpauk.ru/printthread.php/Board/razvod/main/380208/type/post
A perfect illustration of how one has self-organised and realised that the most important thing is to be able to work in one's own inner world. Thank you :)
A quote:
Успех на форексе считается мифом, однако Вы показали феноменальный результат.
Поделитесь секретом вашего успеха?
"The concept of success is different for everyone. I had to go through some stages of development. A lot of things that
I planned to do, still haven't succeeded. Despite algotrading and seemingly complete
automation, sometimes you get very tired and exhausted. What can be associated with periods of
of uncontrolled trading or absence of it at all. Not to mention the constant market
research. It's all individual.
"The hardest part is thinking for yourself. I guess that's the secret.
From the internet:
Эксплуатация рыночной неэффективности
I was a business manager for over a decade before I became a full-time trader. At the time, I didn't realise how well the effort expended earlier would benefit my later trading activities. As it turned out, swing trading is highly dependent on effective management, on the idea through execution.
Traders must manage both time and information with great skill. After all, short-term speculation reflects a very attractive time-to-money principle that will lead to more profits in a short period of time than simple investments. But this activity also quickly causes heavy losses if not constantly intervened and regulated.
The aim is to exploit market inefficiencies, which are shown through price models. With this in mind, trader-managers measure the ratio of return to risk, remaining defensive and playing with complete detachment from the results. They focus on optimising entry and exit for all other considerations, guiding positions through a maze of timing structures and market movements.
Profit requires flexibility, but not too many trading strategies at once, so traders focus on playing it safe, taking advantage of the weakness of the crowd. They realise that success rarely depends on chasing an overheated market or playing on the latest news. They follow a less well-trodden path and look for an original play that carries less risk. They take a little money out of the market every day, knowing that it can eventually bring significant wealth.
Trader-managers check the timing of each part of the market day, adjusting positions to match the major cycles of the market. They always have one eye on external events which can turn a rally into a sell-off in seconds. They remain informed and look for opinions, but trust only the numbers.
Trade management starts with this golden rule: A good entry into a bad position makes more money than a bad entry into a good position. Consider a "grab the money and run away" strategy instead of holding positions through pullbacks and reversals. Increase position size to take substantial profits, but walk away quickly to manage risk. Learn to change position sizes when market conditions change. Above all, remember that it is best to enter during quiet times and exit during high activity.
Look for similarities every step of the way, from preparation to profit. Predictions are greatly improved when elements of different forms of analysis converge. Assume that each new element of similarity increases the ratio of signal reliability to market noise in your trading setup. When the various aspects of your analysis line up, market uncertainty can dissipate so quickly that price forecasting becomes crystal clear. Act without hesitation when recoveries, moving averages and trendlines work together in perfect unison.
Go in front of the crowd on pullbacks, and stand behind them on breakouts. Be prepared to move against them when conditions approve of a reversal. Stay on the sidelines when confusion prevails or the crowd can't decide on a direction. Recognise emotions through numbers and become a student of herd psychology. Understand that every pattern has a breakthrough point where the crowd will lose control, rush to run or show irrational agitation. Find that point and execute your trade just before the crowd does.
Market orders undermine trading control because they force us to chase the market. Orders, on the other hand, reinforce discipline and strategic thinking in our game. They help our management because they link decisions to certain numbers. For example, consider placing an order to open a position at a deep recovery level and then walk away. It will only execute when a low-risk entry opportunity presents itself.
Avoid external information that does not enhance your execution. Never mix fundamental and technical analysis, because one usually lies while the other tells the truth. Avoid personal bias that will ruin your trading. The end of the world may come soon, but not in the next 30 minutes or the next three days.
Modern technology makes a good trader better, but it won't help a loser. Effective trading management depends more on reading the chart pattern than on buying the latest software. As your management skills grow, you will find that execution systems become more transparent and less urgent in relation to your returns.
And you will realise that your only goal when the market opens each morning is to take the crowd's money before they take your own.