From theory to practice - page 250
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Are you kidding?
There's money in here!
Statistics and other heuristic guessing games don't work.
Just finance and credit, economics a bit, politics!
Yeah, I forgot -- you're old school. Fundamental analysis, forecasting... Where's all that now? There's no one left... Only the Wizard is out there.
Yeah, I forgot - you're from the old guard. Fundamental analysis, forecasting... Where's all that now? There's no one left... One Warlock around here somewhere.
In your language....
Do you know how the PCB tracing algorithm works?
It's almost the same algorithm, but with a quote...
Point up, point down, where the market equity is added, that's where we go.
So physics in this case, hell no!
They can write whatever they like below, but as they say - first let him show us his forex money, and then we will listen.Yeah, I forgot - you're from the old guard. Fundamental analysis, forecasting... Where's all that now? There's no one left... Sorcerer's out there somewhere.
He's monkeying around in all the threads, he's a freeloader, and you've been trying to communicate with him in earnest for a long time :)
He's talking bullshit. I think he's a DC bot.
Throw it in, Maxim, I have an appetite!))) I added you)))
Yes, it's ready, I uploaded it to Gdisk, I sent you the link.
Throw it in, Maxim, I have an appetite!))) I've added you)))
Thanks, I downloaded it))) Not sending messages.
Thank you, downloaded))) Not sending messages.
strange, i added it too... maybe something is not working after the service update
I'm probably going to write something stupid now, but I can't help but pour out here what occurred to me during my thoughtful reading of this post of yours.
1. What is a non-Markovian process by definition? It is a process whose evolution depends on its past. As far as I understood your research showed that price series is a NOT Markovian process. It seems to me at this point all the technicians should cry hallelujah! All of them from Charles Dow and the ancient Japanese, to Larry Williams and Herczyk! Because you've given technical analysis a chance, and importantly, you've given it a chance in terms of mathematics!!! Previously they had based it all on postulates: "history repeats itself", tra-la-la, "trends", back and forth. But now it follows from your research that there is some dependence of the market in the future on the market in the past. So it can be attempted to be predicted. So forecasting can make sense at all. That alone is sufficient material for an article, if only you can more or less rigorously prove that the price series of today's markets is aNOT Markovian process.
Well yes I understand, there won't be such an article, because all you're thinking about now is "five golds on the field of miracles"... :)
2. How on earth are you trying to make your billions by making such a discovery? Paradoxical!!! You come up with tricks to turn a non-Markovian process into a Markovian one! That is, not dependent on the past! But to which "your mathematics" is applicable - exactly the mathematical apparatus you know well. Why not? Yes, you can!
Here's what you write: "In the exponential time-price scale, most entry points behind support/resistance lines mean a return to the mean. However, in my 20% of 100%, crossing these lines means, well, let's say mid-trend, which is exactly the sign that the process memory cannot be completely 'destroyed'."
In trading parlance, if I understand you correctly, it translates as follows: you are trying to make a counter-trend trading strategy and according to your tests so far 80% of trades are profitable! That's awesome! Really! In 20% of trades it gets taken away on an unexpected trend - this is the expected behaviour of counter-trend strategies! If this is true, then the approach looks logical! After all, if you reduced everything to a Markov process, then the link to the past is gone! And that means you can no longer predict movements! So how can there be prediction in a random process? But you just can calculate characteristics of a given random process - first of all mathematical expectation, and possibly the form of distribution, from which you can draw interesting levels - that's valuable.
3. I used to read somewhere in this voluminous thread "let's make money on fat distribution tails", and to be honest at the time I understood it as a "black swan" variant. Now I understand that fat tails for your strategy means just enough trades - if they were thin, the trades would be few. And the target is always a mathematical expectation. Have I understood your idea correctly?
By the way, more than once I've read studies showing that distributions of market price series do have thick tails - certainly much thicker than in a normal distribution. Also, the long-established, plausible opinion is that the currency market is flat 70% of the time and trends 30% of the time. I wish someone would illustrate this statement statistically, with calculations...
4 I do not understand why you think that "the crossing of these lines means, well, say, the middle of a trend, which is just a sign that the process memory cannot be completely "destroyed"."
Why is it that if a trend has begun, it is from" processmemory "? Let's think about it, where does the trend lead? Either to the tail of the distribution, farther back than the point where you entered the return to the mean - it's not really a trend, just an anomalous deviation. Or the trend leads to a complete move of the average together with the bell of the distribution to another location by price - this is really a trend and this is the natural behavior of the market. Do you think that if some transformation rips up the "memory" of the process, trends will disappear?????
Absolutely excellent post.
There's not even much to add here. It's exactly like that.
For non-Markovian processes the mathematical apparatus is not developed from the word "at all", that's the problem.
I was just working with ticks and found out an amazing thing. If you take the average RMS value of the sliding sample volume, it turns out that this value is almost a constant!!! And at the point in time when it starts to decrease, there is a trend that sort of restores this constant value of variance. That's what self-organisation of the process is all about.
But! I have found it very difficult to process huge data sets from any point of view (computer resources, power requirements, communication channel stability, etc.). This task is extremely difficult to solve at home.
But there are diffusion equations for Markovian processes. Everything is clear and understandable. That's why I started to transform our time process. Whether it is good or bad - I do not know. At least I have a footing under my feet. I'm more or less sure of the strategy, rather than guessing and tinkering, which is why I don't put any stops.
To be blunt - I'm not quite sure I'll have +100% per month all the time, but so far there's no reason to think this strategy will lead to outright failure.
And yes - if you break the "memory" completely - what we used to call a trend will look like just a deviation of let's say 4-5 RMS at most. And this is already happening now 80% of the time.
But 20% - yes, some additional parameter is needed. Looking for.
Sergey and Alexander, the trend is because people don't want to buy when the price goes up, but they won't stop selling.
And until they run out of money in their deposits, there will be that trend, in this case upwards.
And the notorious memory that you whisper about is the memory of speculators that the price goes up and down. This memory is the reason they are pouring in.
Therefore, the grail is to calmly and slowly figure out where the price will go for at least a couple of months, not a day or two, and make your move!!!!
The buy/sell command, at certain times. The bot just executes commands.
Do you know or is that a guess?
A normal bot should do far more than just execute buy/sell commands.
Do you know or is that a guess?
A normal bot should do far more than just execute buy/sell commands.
Bas knows a lot :))) No irony, by the way. But he doesn't say a word.