Donald - Nathanson - page 6
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Good question. :) Same place as a million.
...
If you have 1000 dollars and earn 10% per annum, how many years do you need to earn a billion?
If you have a thousand dollars and you're satisfied with 10% per annum, then you do not need this Forex - put it in the bank, Investment deposit, 10.5% per annum.
And no hassle at all, no forum-raiding, strategy-testing, etc...
If you have $ 1000 and you are satisfied with 10% per annum, then you do not need this Forex - put it in the bank, Investment deposit, 10.5% per annum.
In general, there is no hassle at all, no forum-rolling, no making up and testing strategies, etc.
I gave 10% as an example of a minimum risk-free income. I know what the yield at the bank is.
If there was nothing random, it would be completely predictable, and that is at least 200-300 pips per day and no drawdown, that is, you can go for everything, and in a couple of weeks milliner, or even in one week.
And how do you predict the actions of large traders, banks and market makers? The result of their actions is seen post factum, after the price has reversed.
My point is this. Different methods of analysis allow you to change the probability of guessing. It used to be 50/50 and becomes 60-40.
A deterministic series is a series that is 100% predictable.
A stochastic series is a series that is 100% unpredictable.
A random series is a combination of a deterministic and a stochastic series.
All probability theory, mathematical statistics, machine learning is random series prediction. All forecasting methods distinguish a random series with a deterministic part and a stochastic part
completely unpredictable would be a series where everything is random, including where the distribution itself is random...
for example if price moved like this: 1...55....-300....1567....35...-7...-450...25...1000...
in financial random series there are things that can be more or less accurately predicted...these are standard deviations and probability density...
if the price is now 1.20035 you can predict with high probability that it will not reach 5.08763 in a minute
but what does that mean practically? - nothing... because directional trading trades the direction, which is exactly what you can't predict... and this part (the one we need) is not determinable in any way...............
The top starter may disagree with me as well as many others, but in my opinion there is nothing random about price movements. If demand is higher than supply the price goes up demand is lower the price goes down. The direction of price movement cannot just turn sharply in the opposite direction just because a random event occurred. The actions of the crowd (small traders or meat),big traders, banks and other market makers are behind that. If you add an element of analysis to this system then you can increase the number of profitable trades by another 10%.
captain obviousness) price is naturally shaped by people and not by flashes in the sun...
When I say that the market is random, I mean completely unpredictable, and it does not matter whether it happens by flipping a coin or the actions of "rational" investors ...
the result is the same.......
You didn't mention another mechanism that allows you to profitably trade SBs with variable lot, no betting restrictions, no fear for the deposit, both practically and theoretically.
Rationale: there is NO LESS "creative" potential than "destructive" potential in the movement of raw data values
The top starter may disagree with me, as may many others, but in my opinion there is nothing random about price movements. If demand is higher than supply the price goes up demand is lower the price goes down. The direction of price movement cannot just turn sharply in the opposite direction just because a random event occurred. The actions of the crowd (small traders or meat),big traders, banks and other market makers are behind that. If you add an element of analysis to this system then you can increase the number of profitable trades by another 10%.
Unless there is a limit. buyers cannot buy 100 times what they normally buy at one moment.
There are limits from below and from above.
You cannot do it with constant stakes. But with Martingale and the like methods with increasing the lot you can (theoretical, but practical or not enough money, or a betting limit).
somewhere around 512 tries, you'll reach a point where you have to put 512 dollars on the line.
and then you'll either make 512 or lose 512.
You either double up or you lose - like everywhere else.
captain obviousness) naturally price is formed by people and not by flashes in the sun...
When I say that the market is random, I mean completely unpredictable, and it does not matter whether it happens by flipping a coin or the actions of "rational" investors ...
the result is the same.......
As you have seen on the Hub, the price is always moving near one.
it's all your theorising. you don't profit from it...
...
And, like, you can even tell me why
You cannot take the market as a Sat. it is an axiom. on the Sun, you cannot make profit. on the contrary, look how Forex differs from Sat.
the price is always near one. on Sat, have you ever seen the price constantly hovering near one?
you can't? ..... oh man... that's too bad... but if you really want to, maybe you can? or you can't anyway?
"you have to look for the difference between forex and sb..."
that's all 99% of traders do)... the structure of the market is different ... i.e., the main trade is in the Forex market ... i do not think that it is easy to compare forex to roulette ... it makes traders frustrated ... they even lose appetite and sleep badly at night ...
but if you put the MACD on the chart and make a deal - that's called working in the forex market)
then the transaction becomes a deeply informed, serious decision and one can sleep peacefully....
You should never use a strategy tester, only a notebook and a pen. Otherwise you may get rid of your illusions too quickly, or you may whisper to yourself about discipline, lack of experience, and so on.
Somewhere around 512 tries, you'll get to a point where you have to put 512 dollars on the line.
and you'll either make 512 or lose 512.
You either double up or lose - as you do everywhere else.
On your 512th try, there will be a number with 150 zeros.