Statistics, optimisation and "lucky coin" .... - page 9
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1. I am not aware of any TS that consistently produce profits (read "found a pattern") based on an understanding of "where the market is going". In my opinion, the market is really a "coin". Give me some examples to support what you are saying, plz.
not "where the market is going", but what methods are massively used in the market. Entry, exit methods and their methods (limit/market). If people are massively placing stop-losses, or breakout entries behind extrema, then a strategy that frontruns them is working. An example no longer working in this form, but a well-known one (turtles). After mass use, "turtle soup" worked. On some instruments their combination still works.
2. It is important to understand the pattern being exploited by TC. Because you can get to such a part of history, during optimization, that won't happen again. And this part of the history can have any beginning and any end.
To summarize, I want to note that there are several types of TS that are as similar to each other as water in different aggregate states... therefore, we should not speak about optimization and statistics in such a generalized way. In some cases, it applies in a slightly different way than is commonly assumed, i.e. there is no banwl fit to the story.
It is clear that most of the discussions are dominated by pseudo-TS based on ideas of well-known indicators which show nothing.
p.s. so as not to throw stones, and not to call me a chatterbox, let me give you an example of my trade statistics:
can, of course, get in. And yes, it is important to understand. This is what applies to point 1.
p.s. not sure what your picture explains or proves))
not "where the market is going", but what methods are massively used in the market. Entry, exit methods and their methods (limit/market). If people are massively placing stop-losses, or breakout entries behind extrema, then a strategy that frontruns them is working. An example no longer working in this form, but a well-known one (turtles). After mass use, "turtle soup" worked. A combination of them still works on some instruments.
OK, although I could argue that the turtle TC just happened to fall into a favourable time period, by accident. But let's assume you're right.
The whole question is, how do you plan to determine traders' positions?
OK, although I could argue that the TC turtles just happened to fall into a favourable time period, by accident. But suppose you're right.
any system works in its favourable time period and then it doesn't.)
The whole question is, how do you plan to determine traders' positions?
just assume that the stereotype in order placement (and in general, the method of making entry/exit decisions) does not change quickly. You can only find out accurately after the fact, or by being an insider.
By "coin" here do you mean absolute randomness?
The market is by no means a "coin". But understanding and seeing it can be a "coin" ;)
Understanding "where the market is going" takes a long time and a lot of hard work.
Genius.
Genius.
You think it's the other way around?
Understanding "where the market is going" takes a long time and a lot of hard work.
How do you know?))
Do you suppose it's the other way round?
I suppose it's beyond anyone's control. Yes, as has been said, there are insiders and EVERYTHING else. The latter is a trick by giving false impressions. Insiders, on the other hand, are against the law, but they can help one time, and that is from word of mouth... I have not come across them myself.
how do you know?))
Do you have any objections?