Not the Grail, just a regular one - Bablokos!!! - page 81
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again-twenty-five... but not with the same!
a series of six eagles is, on average, less frequent than a series of five, despite the independence of the result of one shot from the other. A paradox? Of course it is. Nevertheless, with each new eagle the probability of getting tails is not, not so - the number of tails after the fifth eagle will be more than the number of tails after the fourth.
Now that is a SERIOUS claim.
It needs to be proven with real data.
Do you have instructions on how to get them, or can I just poke around in Excel?
Yes, you can poke around at least. Take at least a hundred thousand random ones and zeros and count the number of series of one or two or three... zeros in a row.
If the length of the series turns out to be inversely proportional to the frequency of its falling out, then my serious statement above can be considered proven.
No way... So you do the math.
And I'll count exactly - how many percents of zeros fell out after 5 units.
(And what do you think the result will be? ;-)
( and that's where Ostap got carried away... )))
the old dickhead has left our sinful isle without giving us the benefit of it(((
Not this author.
The smoker is alive. h ttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/7685
The smoker is alive. h ttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/7685
Amnesty or something?
I understand all that, Vlads. But, unfortunately, the coin knows nothing about it.
Please clarify, do you intend exactly to RECOVERY CHANGE the probability, or to use some STATISTICAL property of the sequence for the benefit...?
1- She doesn't have to know
2- or does it "know"? because there is no ideal SB, and if so, then the coin does not initially have absolutely equal sides. In that case, how can you tell which side has a preponderance and what can you do if
1- The preponderance of one side has a variable preponderance relative to the unchanging weight of the other side.
2- if both sides change their weighting
Perhaps if you build some kind of function of the weights of the sides in the game (or set the necessary parameters of this function), then something interesting will come out.
Amnesty or something?
That is, if the coin is perfect, the probabilities will be 50/50, regardless of the results of the previous rolls. If deformed, one side will fall out more often than the other, again regardless of previous results.
Have you personally tried to formalise the mechanism for "detecting" uneven sides above (my post just above, about the variability of uneven sides)?
I read in the thread someone posted a link on page 9 about Equity on Sat.
If you don't mind, please link to it.
About whether the coin knows its previous statistics or not, and whether it doesn't give a damn about it.
What if the result of flipping a coin - a series - exists by itself, always, whether we flip it or not, and obeys the laws stated above, including the desire for equilibrium. And the actual flip of a coin in this case only shows this result as an indicator. Then each series of flips is not a new reference point. And then indeed, by trying to understand through the actual flip at which point of the existing series we are at, it is possible to predict further results of the actual flips.