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eurjpy will bearish or bullish

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waqasabdur
495
waqasabdur  
eurjpy will sell or buy in today and tommorow
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

It is difficult to say because it depends on timeframe.

H1 timeframe - bullish.
This is flat for now (within the primary bullish).
If the price will cross 135.95 resistance level (you can see this level from the chart below) - on close H1 bar - so the bullish will be continuing.
Means - it may be good to open buy trade (buy stop pending order for example at 136.00).


If not so it will be flat or correction

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  
H4 timeframe - bullish.
Same 135.95 resistance level we can see here (on the chart).
It means: if the price will cross this level on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing, if not so it will be flat or correction.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

D1 timeframe - bearish
As we see from the chart below - the nearest resistance is 136.68 and support level is 132.55
It means the following: if the price will cross 136.68 resistance (from below to above) on close D1 bar so we may see market rally (market rally is counter trend which is opposite to correction); if the price will break 132.55 support from above to below so the bearish trend will be continuing; if not so it will be ranging within those 2 levels.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  
Thus, if we summarize this information for those 3 timeframes - we can see that it may be bullish according to H1 and H4 timeframes (same key level should be broken for that), but in general view - it will be just a counter trend for D1 timeframe (because D1 is on bearish in general).
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

Next question may be the following: when can we expect uptrend?

If we look at D1 timeframe so Ichimoku cloud is changing the direction for tomorrow (I marked this date by vertical green line on the chart):


When the direction of this pair may be changed totally from bearish to the bullish?
8th of March:



But it is just a probability ... because future is not set :)

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

135.95 resistance level was broken now for H1 close bar and for H4 close bar (new H1 bar and new H4 bar were started above this level):



So, if someone opened buy stop pending order at 135.95 (or 136.00 as I suggested) - you should have 15 pips in profit for now (based on 'equity open trades').

Next level is 136.02 for H1/H4.

D1: everything is same one.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  
newdigital:

... Next level is 136.02 for H1/H4.


What does it mean?
What means: "next level ..."?

Level means - support/resistance level, or if we are trading it - this is take profit/stop loss levels (for partial order closing for example, or for whole trade to be closed in profit or in loss), and/or level to enter (it may be the level to enter or to re-enter).

But some traders are using some gap/distance to open the trade. For example, if we see 135.95 level so we may open the trade to be few pips above it (136.00 for example). For support level (for sell trade) it may be few pips below the level (as a distance to open the trade).

Other traders are waiting ... they do not care about distance so much (they can use 10 or 15 pips distance ... they are waiting for more probability ... they want to know exactly: this trade will be in profit or not. They agree with 15 pips in profit in case they knew about direction before openning the trade.
What they are waiting for? The price may be rebounded from the level.
It may be rebounded for 2 times - means: false price/level crossing. So, they are waiting for the 3th attempt
for the price to cross/to break the level. Because the 3th time attempt may be final one: it may be false in general, or it may be real crossing (signal to open the trade).

That is why some traders are using the distance: they are openning the trade few pips above the level in case of buy trade, and few pips below the level in case of sell trade. Why? Just to increase the probability for real/valid signal and to reduce false breakouts (false breakout/breakdown = rebounding in our case).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

This is our buy trade (which we were talking about here):



Rozana Sustar
2291
Rozana Sustar  

Hello.

Based on my analysis.

H1:

STRONG SELL

H4:

NEUTRAL 

DAILY:

WEAK BUY 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
96868
Sergey Golubev  

This is the situation for now: 21 pips in profit


Stop loss was moved to breakeven ... so i can close Metatrader to go to sleep :)

12
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