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Personally, I do not believe in the "Big Conspiracy Theory". "They" are nowhere near as clever as we think they are and can't write history several years in advance. Take, for example, major managed events like those terrorist attacks. How have they affected the market? Just open the market charts and the answer is no. Even "Focusum" is just a minor blip which did not affect the overall global market.
Fokushima is not a good example - it is an unbelievable event and not mainstream. You have to create a crowd opinion and then things go in the right direction. I don't see any other explanation for oil.
But I am interested in another question.
As you can see from the thread, I hold the viewpoint of trends in the markets. But trends come in (as they say, deterministic and stochastic. If the market is manipulated, we can neglect stochastic trends and any TS on the first step include stupid detrending. Now this directly concerns us.
Is it so?
That's weird. Let's take oil for example. Highly manipulative instrument and it's very difficult to make money on it, just like oil stocks. The same is true for the financial sector. The reality doesn't fit with your theories.
doesn't add up, if you think in terms of TFs m1.....m5, or even ticks ;)))))
Otherwise -- it's fine ;)
It's kind of weird. Take oil, for example. It is highly manipulative and very difficult to make money on it, just like oil stocks. The same applies to the financial sector. There's something about your theories that doesn't fit reality.
My trading practice says the same thing. Highly liquid, open instruments are much more "technical" and provide more opportunities to make money. None of the many strategies we use work well on oil and the illiquid, manipulated instruments of the Russian stock market (although much of this works even in forex). I know what I trade, and I am confident in the effectiveness of these TS. It's just that markets are different, it's a fact, and what works in one does not necessarily work in the other.
In what way - can you be more specific? You're being too brief. I just see that some people here understand market efficiency in their own way. Manipulativeness does not mean that the market in question cannot be efficient.
P.S. Well, let's just say (this isn't a hit-and-run, Vasili):
In what way - can you be more specific? You've said it too succinctly. I just see that some people here understand market efficiency in their own way. Manipulativeness does not mean that the relevant market cannot be efficient.
P.S. Well, let's just say (this isn't a hit-and-run, Vasili):
This is a peculiar way of looking at market efficiency, but it is not very consistent with what is written in the books.Why, according to the same theory, inefficient markets are those where some information is not disclosed. A lot of hidden information is an inefficient market, little hidden information is an average inefficient market, and all the information is disclosed is an efficient market. The insiders use the hidden information. They create trends, etc.
Not very accurate. There is a lot of undisclosed information on EURUSD, for example. A lot of "information" is fluff, often revised, including on "strong" news. Nevertheless, it is difficult to call this market inefficient.
It is not a question of disclosure/non-disclosure of information, but how much it can help in trading.
Why not? According to the same theory, inefficient markets are those where some information is not disclosed. A lot of hidden information is an inefficient market, little hidden information is an average inefficient market, and all information disclosed is an efficient market. The insiders use the hidden information. They create trends, etc.
It's not about hidden information, but the rational use of the available information. That is, a weak form of efficiency means that everyone knows past prices and everyone is equally rational in predicting future prices on this basis. I.e. it is impossible to think of a more efficient way of using this information. Abstraction)))