[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 6: August 2011) - page 29

New comment
 

In the first half of the day the single currency fell against the US dollar to its lowest level since 21 July at $1.4150.

.... The market remains extremely concerned about the situation in Italy. In addition the growth outlook for the global economy has recently become more uncertain.

Yields on Italian 10-year bonds have reached the highest since 1997. Spanish securities have also fallen in value ahead of auctions for securities maturing in 2014 and 2015.

Eurozone producer price inflation slowed from 6.2% in May to 5.9% in June. Therefore, the likelihood that the ECB will raise rates has decreased. The central bank meeting will be held on Thursday, August 4.

In the afternoon EUR/USD was able to recoup its losses after the release of negative US Personal Spending data - the figure declined by 0.2% in June.

 
margaret:
Look at the pros with MT5 inti Post #7162 on page 359


"A picture is emerging on the m15.
Movement to 1.4145 with a possible pullback to 1.4250
A breakdown on the news, if there is one."

I'll give you the link right away so they don't say it's plagiarised)))

http://ruforum.mt5.com/threads/8492-EUR-USD-%202011q3/page359

We all used to be like that, and even now we sometimes get a bit crazy))))

 
Again, America has attracted global attention with its enormous debt. Attracted and said: "And we're not actually worried about it. Do not worry! We will decide for ourselves when it is time to repay. Moreover, the size of our debt is our own business. If we want it, we raise it. If we don't want to - we don't give it back.... What's the problem?". Now that the US government debt issue is off the agenda, the markets have switched to the eurozone interest rate issue, which implies an assessment of the ECB head's rhetoric during the August 4 press conference, and the slowing US economy with the possible launch of an additional stimulus programme in the US economy.

At the ECB meeting (August 4) and the following press conference, central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet will probably not be hurting the psyche of already agitated market participants with hints of an interest rate hike in the Eurozone in September. This conclusion may be suggested by:

  • Recent weak macroeconomic statistics in the region (industrial production data, ZEW report, confidence and business sentiment indices) suggest a weakening of economic activity in the region;
  • lower inflationary pressures on consumer prices (CPI for July was 2.5%, the forecast was 2.7%)
  • still unclear situation with the troubled Eurozone countries.

With this in mind, further buying of the Euro against a rise in interest rates is not a well-founded decision at the moment. The interest rate expectations curve, by the way, also works in support of this idea and indicates that the ECB will take a wait-and-see attitude towards interest rate hikes in the region in the coming months.

 

By the way - this picture is a "beginner's reference" =)))

Buy at the top and sell at the bottom =))

 
What's pulling the euro down? The debt crisis in Europe. As before, two factors such as the ECB meeting and speculation about QE3 should not be underestimated. Significantly in this case, the yield on 10-year US government bonds has fallen yesterday to around 2.75% or lows since November 2010 which might be an indicator not only of a flight to quality but also a signal that someone is actively getting ready for a third round of quantitative easing. In this context, a very important meeting of the US Federal Reserve in a week will be very important in terms of the development of the USD. The main opponent of the dollar, the euro, is looking down. Spain's 10-year government bond yield is approaching 6.2%, Italy's is again near 6%, along with talk in the market that EU leaders have certainly bought time at the expense of the second bailout package for Greece, but not as much as last year. We also see a number of publications on Bloomberg that Merill Lynch Global Wealth Management has abandoned Italian and Spanish bonds altogether and DWS Investment is reducing the share of troubled European bonds in its portfolio. In short, there are fears that a relapse in Europe is imminent, not with Greek bonds but with bonds of another country. Remember how it was in 2008, when after Bear Stearns was rescued by mortgage agencies, a number of banks and AIG, but Lehman Brothers ran out of money for one reason or another. Money, in general, has the basic uncomfortable property of running out at the most inopportune moment. The situation in Europe could all follow the same scenario, where at some point a decision will be made to declare a full-fledged default in one country or another.
 

All 16 member states of the euro zone have expressed their willingness to invest in another tranche for financially struggling Greece, the European Commission announced today. The money is due to be transferred to Athens in September, and so far everyone - even Spain and Italy, whose participation was questionable - is willing to help.

"All eurozone countries are ready to participate in the next tranche of financial aid to Greece. There is no indication that any country will not provide funds for the next tranche," Reuters quoted European Commission spokeswoman Chantal Hugh as saying.

 
Debt crisis puts bankers out of work https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub3mkWVQmUA
 
US President Obama will start his speech around 16:15 GTM
 
margaret:
US President Obama will start his speech around 16:15 GTM
Thanks :) very valuable info! almost an insider ;)
 
There is still the option of going to 4330 https://c.mql4.com/forum/2011/08/H1_2_2.jpg, but don't count on it much....
1...222324252627282930313233343536...202
New comment
Reason: