Strategic foresight systems - page 16

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Banzai!!!!

Probability of a trend change (>50-55% trend change missed):

Quotation Trend type Start date Duration (days) 07.03
P (%)
AUDJPY(+)02.181064.5
AUDUSD(+)02.161231.5
CHFJPY(+)02.101635.9
EURCHF(-)02.141475
EURGBP(+)02.171130.5
EURJPY(-)02.22876.4
EURUSD(+)02.161222
GBPCHF(-)02.151359.6
GBPJPY(-)02.181067.2
GBPUSD(+)02.141437.4
NZDUSD(-)02.032149.2
USDCAD(-)02.101632.4
USDCHF(-)02.141438.3
USDJPY(-)02.171152.2+

NZDUSD (beautiful trend): something like this could be for the next 5 days ():

PS: for discussion, not for trading

 
NZDUSD (красивый тренд): как то так может быть на ближайшие 5 дней ():

My variant on Slose. Seems to go lower than the middle for your points.


 
-Aleksey-:

My variant on Slose. Seems to go lower than the middle for your points.


Monday'sopening prices have "postponed" (or not confirmed) the NZDUSD reversal. The probability of a trend change has now dropped to 20.6%.
 
Farnsworth:
Monday's opening prices have "postponed" (or not confirmed) the NZDUSD reversal. The probability of a trend change has now fallen to 20.6%.
Does your 20.6% probability of a trend change mean that the probability of its continuation is 79.4%, or are these independent things within the system?
 
-Aleksey-:
Do you have a 20.6% probability of trend change that means a 79.4% probability of trend continuation, or are these independent things within the system?

theoretically dependent, which is what I am trying to check. For NZDUSD it was 49.2, now it is 20.6, i.e. an estimate of future deviations will "leave" the price in the trend continuation area. Presumably the exit/exit error on trend change is a few bars at most, which for the trend duration statistics shown earlier gives some hope.

PS: Monday - can very often change the result in a jumpy fashion...

 
Quote Trend Type Start date Duration (days) 07.03
P (%)		 08.03
P (%)
AUDJPY(+)02.181164.5 52.9
AUDUSD(+)02.161331.5 46.5
CHFJPY(+)02.101735.9 22.4
EURCHF(-) -> (+)02.28575 38
EURGBP(+)02.171230.5 41
EURJPY(-) -> (+)02.28576.4 19.6
EURUSD(+)02.161322 24
GBPCHF (-)02.151459.6 60.1
GBPJPY(-)02.181067.2 80.9
GBPUSD(+)02.141537.4 27.9
NZDUSD(-)02.032249.2 20.6
USDCAD(-)02.101732.4 42.8
USDCHF(-)02.141538.3 29.1
USDJPY(-)02.171252.2+ 56.9

  • AUDJPY - probably "inside" the forecast horizon "sitting" a short trend of (2-3) days duration. It will go down further. It is a difficult situation to analyze.
  • EURCHF - a "formal" change of trend has passed.
  • EURJPY - a "formal" change of the trend has passed.
  • EURUSD does not want to go down. It seems that it will move up for 5-7 days. Does anybody have the same assumptions?
  • GBPJPY - it seems that tomorrow it will formally change its trend.

 

Colleagues, there's an error that keeps popping up at an enviable rate:

Memory handler: cannot allocate 170241764 bytes of memory

I did a search and they recommend increasing the size of the history window. I did, but it doesn't help. Is this error critical?

 
Farnsworth:

Colleagues, there's an error that keeps popping up at an enviable rate:

I did a search and they recommend increasing the size of the history window. I did, but it doesn't help. Is this error critical?

You just don't have enough memory. Check the amount of memory available.
 
alsu:
You just don't have enough memory. Check the amount of available memory.

Yes it's clear, it's not clear which one and why:

RAM - 4 G (how to see what's physically in use - I've forgotten, there was a utility)

virtual - several GB, free 80%

free disk space - 208 GB

 
Forgot the main thing - the trick is that the story is already re-downloaded and takes up 3GB. What is it missing? :о(
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