Twenty-four, and not one iota more! - page 13
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I do not believe in optimization on the history, because I know how two or three studs in a month can fundamentally change the whole picture and give an answer to the question "where to place a stop and where to take" with an error of nearly hundreds of pips. I.e. it is optimized for the most distorted prices that will probably never happen again. This is nonsense.
That's what I'm asking. How can two cases affect 200? Reduce income by 2%? Is that a disaster?
Yeah, and there's no such thing as a "normal market" and an "abnormal" market.
"Yes, and there is no such thing as a 'normal market' and an 'abnormal' market" - of course, I'm being polemical. Just by testing and trying to figure out the most efficient SL and TP statistically, you are fooling yourself, because the results of such optimization depend on random, chaotic fluctuations, not the most frequent ones... Well, I don't know how else to explain it... I myself sat down at one time when I saw what we were optimising...
I'm telling you - studs. You trade quietly for a month, until the 29th day, everything is quiet and orderly, you get your stats, and suddenly on 30 and 31 a couple of these crazy spikes pops up... And it turns out that your optimized TP, instead of 40 pips, should be 120 (or vice versa), in short, all the normal market conditions go sideways, and the whole point of optimization is lost, because you're not optimizing for the normal market trend, but for two crooked bastards. Drop the machines, run your hands a couple of times, at least for a month, and you will see the impact of completely random outliers on the overall result, on the TP-SL combination. So it's self-defeating.
When you "hand-test" on history, it's the same kind of testing. And when you try to change something in the system and analyze the result of these changes, it's optimization. That's why I don't see how you can trade without optimization. You have to be born with the knowledge of grail and trade it to the bitter end))))
"Yes, and there is no such thing as a 'normal market' and an 'abnormal market'" - self-evidently, I'm being polemical. Just by testing and trying to figure out the most efficient SL and TP statistically, you are fooling yourself, because the results of such optimization depend on random, chaotic fluctuations, not on the most frequent ones... Well, I don't know how else to explain it... I myself sat down at one time when I saw what we were optimising...
well, you have to know what to optimize. If you go through exit options (the same stop options), that's also optimization.
May I ask, what were your considerations when you "put 24 pivots on the chart"? What made you think that the pivots might help to determine the trend at least to some extent? Didn't you ever look at the left part of the charts - "just put them on" and forgot about them?) ?
"Yes, and there is no such thing as a 'normal market' and an 'abnormal market'" - self-evidently, I'm being polemical. Just by testing and trying to figure out the most efficient SL and TP statistically, you are fooling yourself, because the results of such optimization depend on random, chaotic fluctuations, not on the most frequent ones... Well, I don't know how else to explain it... I myself sat down at one time when I saw what we were optimising...
you need to know what to optimise. If you go through the exit options (the same stop options), that is also optimisation.
I went through the motions and realised that it was a monkey's work. That was the end of the optimisation.
It means that optimisation was a good thing :) Now you know what to look for/optimise differently
You see, there's a law of large numbers. So if you have 300 or so trials, two studs won't make any difference.
Two a month? Yeah, it won't... It will only affect your deposit while you are losing, but like a pioneer believing that "the star of happiness will come"... And the longer and more statistically reliable your sample is, the more likely you will drive your deposit to zero - the shitty downside of this Janus.
How can I put it... Pivots are just an average with HLC/3 price, only static. Why doesn't it say anything about the direction of the price, if that's what it's calculated from? The picture on the first page, I think, is quite eloquent, you can see the direction very well. And it was the static pivot I took, because it ignores random spikes... Only I'm afraid to wait 24 hours for it to change my mind - I may not have enough money... :) That's why 24.