Classical analysis 'doesn't work'? - page 5
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Livermore didn't seem to have any reason to "show off". He certainly had nothing and no one to prove. A book had already been written about him and there was constant media interest. He, too, wrote a book trying to explain his approach to trading... Like later authors, he failed (or rather, being a clever man, he did not try) to present his semi-mythical "strategy".
Excerpt from the preface:
"The stock market game is the most fascinating game in the world . But it is not a game for the stupid, thoughtlessly lazy person with low emotional balance, nor is it a game for the adventurer seeking to get rich quick . They will die poor .
For many years I rarely attended a dinner party, did not like strangers who sat down near me and after the usual joking question :
"How can I make some money in the market ?", I had to answer something ...
...If I had been young, I would have needed considerable effort to explain all the difficulties faced by someone who simply wanted to take quick and dashing money out of the market ; by courteous evasiveness I worked out my way out of that trap . In my mature years my answer was simple: "I don't know".
It is difficult to be patient with such people. Firstly, such a question cannot be complimented by a person who has done scientific research on investments and speculation. It would be just as fair for a layman to ask a lawyer or a surgeon:
"How can I make some quick money in law or surgery?"
However, I have come to believe that many people interested in stock market investment and speculation would be willing to work and learn to achieve remarkable results if they had a guide or pointer to point them in the right direction. And this book has been written for them . ....
I can only light the way and I will be happy if with my guidance you take away more money from the stock market than you put in there .
"
That's all!
I suspect that my comment about the death of classical analysis in the next thread prompted Helen to rush to CTA's defence. If so, I only meant that TA does not allow for long-range predictions with a tolerable probability. And those colourful pictures which are created on the basis of TA and supposedly are the prognosis, have no sense, though they come true from time to time.
And here is the classics: If PAMM is profitable, he takes a bow, if it is losing, then with the finger on the trainee.
The meaning of a trainee on a PAMM is completely unclear.
Sorry, what are you talking about?
Sta2066, where was it written that it was a PAMM trainee?
Livermore is a different story - he knew the industry inside out and used TA as a tool to profit from that knowledge. At least when he was trading on the exchange. In the beginning, he traded in a DC analogue purely on the basis of statistical observations.
Unformalized trading should be based on real knowledge which most do not have. Otherwise, one can easily be "fooled by chance". For mere mortals the formalisation of ideas and their comprehensive checking with statistics gives a better chance of systematic earnings. imho
Strongly stated. The same could be said for Williams and DeMark, etc., etc. Each has published something out there... of trading techniques... Has anyone published their trading strategy? Stingy? Hiding it so enemies don't get their hands on it? How can you describe, publish, show in a fixed form, something that is constantly changing and never takes shape? And trading tricks - no problem!
Good words. But shouldn't the sales techniques follow what is constantly changing? Is it always necessary to buy when the crocodile opens its mouth and sell when it sticks out its tongue through its tightly closed lips? I highly doubt it. The problem with "classics" is that they are rather static, the markets were very different at the time when these indicators were created. But probably we can even prove a theorem that on history we will always find periods, parameters and techniques. I have a different problem: CTA is designed for manual trading, which is why I personally don't need it.
The other problem is that CTA is manual trade, so I personally don't need it. The only thing for CTA is no proven profitable tactics and techniques.
Кто-нибудь опубликовал свою торговую стратегию? Жлобятся? Скрывают, чтоб врагам не досталось?... Как можно описать, опубликовать - показать в застывшей форме, то, что постоянно изменяется и никогда не принимает формы?
Well I published an adaptive EA - a full-fledged strategy in source code :)
Ну я же опубликовал адаптивный советник - полноценную стратегию в исходном коде :)
Do you think the results of your "advisor's" activities are not already known to everyone here?
You think everyone here hasn't heard about your "advisor's" performance yet?
Shhhh!!! .....)))) He had a gain of +32% in his last trading interval. He is in pathos ))))). But this growth was formed due to the increase of the deposit load, and consequently the risk increase, although it was announced low risk and smooth equity......)))))
Livermore is a different story - he knew the industry inside out and used TA as a tool to profit from that knowledge. Informalised trading has to be based on real knowledge, which most people don't have. Otherwise, one can easily be "fooled by chance". For mere mortals, formalising ideas and checking them comprehensively with statistics gives a better chance of earning systematically. imho
Mmm... How about this: did he KNOW the industry from the inside over time? And at that time he was making money without "knowing the industry inside out" yet. And, by the way, as we know from "Memories of a Stock Speculator", his TS (let's call it that) was constantly changing. I think Livermore could have formulated his TS... but only valid at one time. Hence - not usable. The great thing about a trading strategy is that it's constantly "looking for it", so... elusive :)
And for us "mere mortals", sticking to a frozen form is disastrous. Also IMHO.