WHY ARE TRADERS LOSING MONEY? - page 16
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Soon we will fly to Mars, soon there will be settlements there, but no one can match this price, the minds in Roscosmos are sitting, why can't they calculate the trajectory of the euro/bucks?
They would have flown long ago if they had learned to calculate it.
Richie, I suspect that they only invite mathematicians and physicists with degrees who know much more about Bernoulli and Fourier than you and I put together. Finance (practical trading) is a field for professionals, which is not something you become in a month or a couple of years after becoming familiar with the field.
Похоже в самой функции цены уже заложена вся эта "математическая хрень".
It doesn't take much to put all the bullshit you can into it to prevent anyone from steadily beating the market. It's enough to make the whole process a martingale given the known information. If there are still pros who are consistently beating it, then it's not that bad.
2 alexx_v: how should I know. The rumour is that it's high-frequency trading (probably arbitrage) on a very large number of instruments.
P.S. The highlighted in blue is the most important place to dig. Depending on how this information is understood, there are three different EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) hypotheses - weak, moderate and strong. Only the strong one states that the market is fundamentally efficient, i.e. no statistical advantage can be found in it under any circumstances.
Here on this forum they are used to talking about "just martingales" without talking about this information - and some particularly brave ones even claim that it has already been proven that the market is a martingale. This is bullshit, because one must always stipulate what "known information" is being referred to.
Secondly, even if we assume that all known information is just prices (even without volumes), even in this simplest case nobody has proved that the market is a martingale.
P.P.S. I deliberately set out mathematical material in my posts at a level above that accepted here. This is not to show how cool I am. The main purpose is to stimulate the mental process. It is interesting for me to communicate with a person who, after reading something incomprehensible, will not reject it, - say, to hell with these higher matters, let theorists talk about them, - but will try to understand it and thus at least slightly improve their level. The ability and desire to train one's thinking is the main quality that fundamentally distinguishes the successful from the unsuccessful.
Happy holidays to all, dear colleagues!
I won't state it, but I can't help expressing my opinion.
As mentioned along the way, some traders (and those who consider themselves as such) can indeed make profits in the short term, some over a longer period of time. What can it be: a series of successful deals? a skillfully coded algorithm? mastery of fundamental or technical analysis?
Everyone who trades on financial markets has his own secrets, and even if the result of a trade is negative, no one will ever fully disclose the means and tools used in their trading. Besides, almost everything around us happens by itself according to (supposedly) laws, formulated by man himself. In my opinion, financial markets, invented, by the way, by the same man, are no exception. Therefore the possibility of some manipulating factor is quite probable.
But this is lyrical digression. I will move on to the variants of answers to the questions posed.
Вопрос такой: почему большинство трейдеров-программистов не могут понять закономерности изменения цен
инструментов в такой степени, чтобы на этом можно было бы длительное время хорошо зарабатывать ?
I suppose the price movement is chaotic and unpredictable and the indicators are just the reflection of the demand which has already formed. Regularities of price changes on historical data cannot always serve as a reliable source for building a machine code algorithm, so the market deviation from the accepted as an axiom model of behavior can change the balance of the deposit to some extent. Unfortunately, in financial markets the paradox of a regularity works more brutally, and the ways of its solution are more in the domain of human psychology than in the domain of programming.
I am not going to talk about the degree of knowledge mastery here, that is a separate topic.
Is it
possible to earn good money on Forex market with using only technical analysis tools (indicators) for long
time?
It is possible, but with a combination of many factors, the main of which I personally believe:
- Correctly selected tools for your trading style;
- a deposit properly distributed by instruments (MM + MM);
- adhering to your trading style, no matter what.
That said, the length of time is a very relative concept. For someone it is a long time - a couple of years, and for someone a month without losing his/her deposit - happiness.
Is it possible to earn good money on Forex market with using
only theory of probability?
It is possible, but (as any other theory) it might not work when you need it the most.
P.S. As another digression I will add that some people simply are not given to get a profit in the market, well, at least knock yourselves up against a wall. I do not know why, but it happens too.
I am not imposing my opinion on anyone. I'm just saying what I've been thinking about for a long time.
What are the tools to beat it with? With what mathematical tools? Fourier? Lagrangian? Bernoulli? Vasya Pupkin's polynomial? With what?
I tried to do it with Fourier. Not in MQL, I wrote a program in another language. No way. It does not predict with the required precision.
I will say nothing about Lagrangian. Using the probability theory did not work.
It looks like the price function itself has all this "mathematical bullshit" built in.
And the most interesting thing is that none of these docents and professors are even trying to trade on the exchange.
Seikota has been beaten by one muvin. It's a lot simpler than it sounds.
There is always an opportunity to make money on the Fora. Yes!
The price chart is always open. This is not a game of poker, where a pair of cards is closed (even closed cards with a high degree can be calculated).
Prices can go either up or down (standing in place does not count - you can't lose much :))).
Who can prevent us from going in the right direction with the price? Who gives us the price in the opposite direction and prevents us from getting it right?
It's just a misunderstanding of the nature of the market and price behaviour.
The price is predictable on any TF on any instrument, you just need to be able to see it.
THIS can only be achieved by hard work, losing years of free time in finding your way to understand the market.
Unfortunately, many people, because of their mindset are not able to understand it. And no wonder because not everyone can be a nerd:))).
Я говорил о двух. На счёт второго - точно не знаю. Первый - живёт сейчас в США и живёт неплохо.
Подробности тут - gerchik.ru/about/biography
He does not make money on the exchange (and it is not proven that he did), but on the suckers to whom he sells seminars, and then on the commissions from them, when they start to drain their dough through the network of his broker and a bunch of intermediaries, which have multiplied in the Soviet Union very actively, probably competing to see who can benefit from the suckers faster.
Он не на бирже зарабатывает (и не доказано, что зарабатывал), а на лохах, которым семинары впаривает, а потом на комиссии с них же, когда они начинают сливать свою бабло через сеть его брокера и кучи посредников, которые наплодились в совке как-то уж очень активно, наверное, соревнуются в том, кто быстрее отблагодетельствует лохов.
Yeah...
Он не на бирже зарабатывает (и не доказано, что зарабатывал), а на лохах, которым семинары впаривает, а потом на комиссии с них же, когда они начинают сливать свою бабло через сеть его брокера и кучи посредников, которые наплодились в совке как-то уж очень активно, наверное, соревнуются в том, кто быстрее отблагодетельствует лохов.
I too have formed that opinion.