How strong movements are born - page 6
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Theoretically, the impossibility of predicting the direction follows from the lack of inertia property of the price.
And if we suppose (theoretically) that there is a trading channel that is so wide at a certain moment in time that the price rebounds when it touches its border, it changes its direction. Then the direction of movement will be very easy to determine.
And if we assume (theoretically) that there is a trading channel which is so wide at a particular moment in time that when it touches its boundaries, the price rebounds and changes its direction. Then the direction of movement will be very easy to determine.
Of course, trading channels do exist - you can easily see them on the history.
But how to determine its width in advance?
The problem is that even without knowing the width of the channel, you can easily make a profit by splitting up one position into several, each time opening at a better price, with some displacement from previous positions. However, in this case the price of a direction error is very high - you can trade only in profit for half a year, and then lose everything in a day - during a big trend.
Another problem. Even if the channel width is determined correctly, the channel may turn out to be not strictly horizontal, but sloping, i.e. after a while the stop loss will still trigger.
One more problem. If one always tries to predict the direction, then during a trend the algorithm will try to trade against the trend. The "trap" is that you might think that all possible trend ranges can be found on history, but every year there are new surprises - the ranges change so much that no "safety margin" saves you. So, during a trend, there is no choice but to turn off the forecast and follow the price.
It follows from this that the forecast algorithm for the direction or width of the channel should be activated from time to time, and definitely should be deactivated during a trend.
If you know the direction, you can put a small stop loss and a big target.
If you don't know the direction, you have to calculate the stop loss more carefully in some way, so that it doesn't get hit by accident.
In general, it is changing from one stop to another and on average we get 50/50 on a long period, i.e. breakeven at most.
According to our tests, it is impossible to predict the direction, i.e. we are not aware of any methods that could do that.
Theoretically, the impossibility to predict the direction follows from the lack of inertia property of the price.
Many people think that inertia of the price exists, but in fact it doesn't. Inertia in the price is an illusion.
In other words, the price "movement" can stop at any moment and also instantly change its direction to the opposite.
It is impossible to predict the moment of a change of direction with sufficient accuracy for making a profit.
Victor! All of this is pure speculation!
If you make such claims, then provide the appropriate arguments.
That's why it's necessary to put a note under all this, that it's only your personal opinion, based on sensual perception.
Victor! It's all a load of nonsense!
If you make such a claim, provide the appropriate arguments.
That's why you should put a note under all this, that it's only your personal opinion, based on sensory perception.
All of what? Point by point.
If you mean the impossibility of predicting direction, then look at the statistics - most traders are losing.
Consequently, most traders do not have a statistically reliable method of predicting direction.
As I wrote above: "According to our tests it is impossible to predict the direction". Of course, we are talking about time periods of at least several years. On shorter periods, the direction is just randomly guessed :)
I.e. I am not aware of any such method either.
If you know a method for predicting direction - let's discuss it.
If you mean inertia, I won't argue about it - I don't care about other people's delusions.
In other words, if you think that price has inertia, then prove it and maybe I will agree with you.
In the meantime, I tend to believe that big capital purposely creates the illusion of price movement so that miscellaneous small things, "by inertia" try to follow the movement - this habit is from birth in every human being - after all, all surrounding objects move by inertia, so this model is easily transferable to any other movement, even illusory ones (which are only in our minds, not in the real world).
There is a choice of direction in any trade (either buy or sell).
VictorArt, do you perhaps mean that you cannot predict the direction of a future trend? Enter at the beginning of the movement with a minimum stop. So you reject classical trend following systems? Or in principle the possibility of building systems with tp>>sl?
In theory, the impossibility of predicting direction follows from the lack of inertia property of the price.
Nonsense. The presence and/or absence of inertia has no effect on anything (except the position of the drunk in the hallway can be predicted :D). I don't understand why you are attached to inertia at all. Is it not enough other characteristics? Consider the price not as a body (with inertia, etc.), but simply as a sequence of numbers - a time series. For example, some time series (on certain periods for some instruments) are antipersistent - accordingly, directions can be guessed. Not even that it is guessable! If you run all this stuff on several instruments at the same time - you can also stay on your means (i.e. at least, not to drain).
As I wrote above: "According to our tests, the direction cannot be predicted". We are of course talking about time periods of at least a few years. On shorter periods, the direction is simply guessed at random :)
That is, I am not aware of any such method either.
I have to assume that all existing possibilities were included in your tests ? The question, of course, is rhetorical. You don't have to answer it.
Your tests were based solely on your private notion of predictive capabilities. And it is undoubtedly very limited. In order that you again do not take it as a personal insult I can explain: private perceptions of any person and any team are quite organic.
Therefore your meaningful phrase "according to our tests" is equivalent to a very modest statement "in my opinion"="as it seems to me". To use it as justification for your categorical statements is presumptuous and stupid. It's very reminiscent of the OTT - same eggs, just the side view.
PS
You have already suffered a fiasco with the promotion of your system in another branch, so decided to transfer its activity here?
I warn you right away: neither your system, nor your PR has anything to do with the topic of this thread. Especially because, according to you, predicting the direction of the movement is impossible at all.
Open your own thread and discuss your own topic as much as you like. You are an advocate of the culture of communication, right? So it's very uncivilized to take the blanket over yourself.
For my indicator, I was looking for an intersection
What are these lines? What is the difference between them?
I presume that your tests included all existing possibilities ?
That's what I wrote - I'm not aware of any successful directional prediction methods.
Tried many things - the result was negative.
If you know a method for predicting direction, let's discuss it.
Why on earth would you do that? Why fuss with you when it's more interesting to use it without discussing it with anyone else?
Discuss what you know like a pig in oranges. And you have to make a stern face for the sake of relevance. You know, and you could use the patent numbers to make a strong argument.
All foolishness is done with an intelligent expression (c) Mark Twain