First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 5

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Mathemat писал(а) >>

Hello all. The topic of the thread is a well-known, tortured and even, one might say, trite classic statement.

Although the topic is muddied, it is basic. First of all, a preamble.

I've been following the forum for almost a year and noticed that many interesting topics have been killed by highly qualified forum members professionally associated with the word "probability", in particular Mathemat .

Despite the fact that dubious Swedish committee laureates have shamed millions of investors out of trillions of dollars in the last year (the last figure I saw was 11 trillion), various words like "stochastic process", "variance" "DSP" continue to live on. People don't want to see that the market (currency, stock, commodity) has nothing to do with the life of molecules, fuelled by the professional predilections of 90% of specialists working in the market.
Dear Mathemat!
I think the way you're framing the trend questionе is not correct, because there are many trends at the same time.ow. First of all, it is necessary to determine the length of the trend you wish to work with: 100, 500, 2000 pips. It is clear that at the moment we have a flat market, with the width1 of 0.9-1.7. Having decided on the size of the trend it is possible to choose the timeframe, in which these trends occur as trends, and the sideways movement of this trend is correspondingly smaller. For example, if on EURUSD the market movement is 200-300 pips on H1, then this is your timeframe, where you will potentially need 200 pips of movement.
On H1 there will be trends and there will be corrections which, in fact, contain trends for sure on M5 and especially on M1. If you open D1, it will turn out that they have their own trends there, and your trend on H1 is nothing more than a part of a sideways trend on D1. Which trends does your question refer to?
In the future you will have to give a trend definition. For example, "a trend is the direction of price movement between two of its reversals". At our selected TF H1 we plot ZZ, obtain reversals and trend directions. It is a nice picture, except for two circumstances. What is the period of ZZ and what to do with the last link of ZZ? Not only does the last end of ZZ move, which is understandable, but it can and often does lead to a redrawing of the last found reversal.
In my opinion, ZZ is an ideal model for demonstrating a trend problem. What counts as forming a reversal? Keep in mind that a reversal is at the beginning of a trend and at the end of a trend. As I see it, a reversal occurs when a certain "pattern" appears - a set of some elements of the price quotation, which gives more than 50% probability of its occurrence. The notion of pattern is central for me. I can elaborate on it further.
 
faa1947 >> :
Central to me is the notion of pattern

There, right man speaks. I've come to that too.

 
Mathemat >> :

Hi all.

Of course, I'm not suggesting anyone here to do this, but here's my question: what is your own understanding of this almost platitude?


P.S. By the way, why don't we say "if the flat started, it will continue"?

Imho, all the answers are right before the questions. Apparently people have gone a bit sideways, so we can continue in private. If you need any help, I'll try to help.


ZZZH because the flat state is unstable.

 
DrShumiloff писал(а) >>

Who told you that it will fall off? What are you guaranteed to find out with the help of higher TFs?

IMHO, what helps in this case (and only to a very small extent) is wave analysis, and just on the lower TFs. Then we will know if it is, say, the fifth wave has ended or only the first one...

The whole price moves within certain limits of the channel, when the price exceeds these limits (for me these limits are percentage limits of the channel) the movement either fades in this direction or the reversal takes place, the price has passed these boundary conditions of the reversal can be confidently told only by looking at the higher TF with deep analysis of several parameters... Sometimes the price may make a 30 point reverse and then continue in the direction it was moving, then it turns out, with no additional data closed

What can you guarantee to find out with the help of higher TF?
More than two days ago I was looking through the information about EURUSD and analyzing H4 timeframe and made a accurate prediction about the up move by 100 pips and the subsequent fall, which is now happening and this without watching any news, as some do post at the forum, it is interesting to read, but it confirms my thoughts which I see already.
 
TheXpert писал(а) >>

ZYZH because the flat state is unstable.

Back at the end of 2007 I was watching the EURUSD charts watching the price freeze for 2 hours, then it would come back to life and make moves again, you can try to find the quotes of this period, and set the terminal so that you can say based on the work done that in those cases, after the flat - the trend will go in the direction that the system indicates...

TheXpert wrote >>

Imho, all the answers are right in front of the questions. Apparently people have gone a bit sideways, so you can continue in private. If you need any help, I'll do my best to help.

You may be right about the topic getting sideways, but my answer to that question was shown above in the form of a picture

 

what could be more trivial and accurate for trend detection

http://www.forextimes.ru/article/a28160.htm

 
OZ0 писал(а) >>

what could be more trivial and accurate for trend detection

http://www.forextimes.ru/article/a28160.htm

I can't agree about the triviality of trend definition. The definition I adhere to "direction between two reversals" as I showed earlier in the forum, is also not unambiguous. It is even worse with other definitions . For example, connecting lows or highs. I have lectured on technical analysis - the basics to people who knew nothing about it. One of my first lectures and of course "trend". Told them, showed schemes, real quotes. Students are much above average - speciality in mathematical statistics, they memorized almost the whole lecture. In a practical lesson, using Metastock, I suggest constructing a trend. Not a single student managed to build anything like that the first time. Not one.

 
faa1947 >> :

Couldn't agree more about the triviality of the trend definition. The definition I adhere to, "direction between two reversals" as I showed earlier in the forum, is also not unambiguous. Things are even worse with other definitions . For example, connecting lows or highs. I have lectured on technical analysis - the basics to people who knew nothing about it. One of my first lectures and of course "trend". Told them, showed schemes, real quotes. Students are much above average - speciality in mathematical statistics, they memorized almost the whole lecture. In a practical lesson, using Metastock, I suggest constructing a trend. Not a single student managed to build anything like that the first time. Not one.

they didn't read the article http://www.forextimes.ru/article/a28160.htm

otherwise it would be hard not to build a trend using the methodology from this article

Moishe taught it as far back as .... years ago.

And if we consider each completed combination (holding) also as an elementary cell - we have .... TREND

 

An interesting topic. Not in itself, but the conclusions and implications arising from the reasoning behind it. But I won't talk about them.

The "market" field is so worn out that there is no fresh grass left at all. It's not impossible to discover anything new,

but incredibly difficult in view of the ingrained stereotypes of thinking about the market.

To think in these stereotypes is to trample on the spot. And in our world, like in Wonderland, you have to run very fast

to stay in place, and to move forward, you have to run even faster.

To prove theorems, you need axioms. To prove new theorems (especially if they contradict old ones),

you need new axioms, or a revision of old ones.

Here are concepts of old axioms, which, by the way, are perceived differently by people:

Trend, Flat, Volatility, Risk, Forecast, Forecast Accuracy, etc....

They do not know what science (economics and the like) is all about when no one really knows what it is all about. Or rather, everyone thinks that only they know?

The problem is the lack of clear concepts. For example - a trend. They will talk endlessly about what it is! The same thing will happen if we talk about flat, etc. That's why I stopped reading all sorts of "Elder books" before I've even read the first one in the middle.

I do not pretend to create new postulates in economics. I have created new postulates for myself. You can move on to proving theorems. New theorems.

The creation of a new universal and unified paradigm of trading science by forum participants seems very unlikely, due to the specifics of this area of research, the material interest of each and the desire to keep their know-how secret. The confirmation of this - public invitations to communicate in private.Since the Market is the only legal way to make a lot of money out of money.

First of all, I propose to abandon the concept of trend-flation.

 
joo >> :

An interesting topic. Not in itself, but the conclusions and implications arising from the reasoning behind it. But I will not speak about them.

...

First of all, I propose to reject the notion - "trend-flat".

That's why I wrote about the article - "Elementary particles" of price charts

and those particles, then there's no need to define a trend

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