First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 40
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So, the three concepts are: "trend", "started", "continued". How do you understand them in the context of the branch's topic?
I'll try to start:
P.S. The linear regression channel can be replaced with an equidistant channel.
N - number of bars, on which we define the trend (external parameter),
K - coefficient defining the trend/flit border (external parameter),
H - channel height in points (see fig.),
SumH - total height of all bars (in points) composing the channel,
Чего? О чем тут речь?
ЧЕГО, собственно, началось?
What is a trend - conceptually? OK, I'll try to give my concept - as applied to Forex on short term movements (medium and long term have different laws).
A trend is not a disaster of a whole pair, but of just one currency in a pair. It probably happens for both, but that is rare. The notion of a catastrophe is not negative, it is not necessarily a fall.
There is no trend of a pair. It is always the trend of the whole market of a given currency. Trend is a concept that requires multi-currency analysis.
The trend has started: all currencies have started a strictly (or almost strictly) correlated movement relative to the currency that is crashing (KKK). When applied to pairs that have KKK in their composition: the movement of all such pairs can be interpreted as a directional movement of the "disaster currency" KKK.
But this is not enough. In the thread on the absurdity of multi-currency analysis from getch, I laid out the elementary reasoning that proves that KKK exists at any given time. It takes an additional condition (a decent kick at the start) for all this to become a real disaster.
The trend will continue: the KKK catastrophe condition will continue for some time after the correlated move starts. I have not yet come up with a criterion for terminating the KKK catastrophe. We need a decent flat concept (a more complex and subtle concept).
P.S. Alexander, thanks. But your explanation is not a concept. It is its formalization and reduction.
P.P.S. I still haven't found a concept, which allows to formalize the notion of a trend on the basis of information about only one pair.
Mmmm... And how do you think many understood the trend/start/continuation like you of those who have shone here? Particularly valuable, apparently, was the fact that they didn't label their idea of both synergy and the primary sex characteristics of the process in any way.
I can't find a quote from you now, but the point was that prehistory defines history.
That's not even the point!
It's very difficult for me, as an applied scientist, to talk to analysts - they keep confusing what's happening with how it's happening. It's all about goal-setting. Do you want to make money or do you want to explain? But!!! The interesting thing is that if you earn, you can also explain! Motivation of movements - where without it.
It is possible to answer the question of how this or that event was organized. This is one approach. And it is possible to answer how to behave in this situation. I.e. to earn.
Можно ответить на вопрос, как то или иное событие организовалось. Это один подход. А можно отвечать на то, как себя в этой ситуации вести. Т.е. - зарабатывать.
Yeah. The concept I cited solves both problems - it allows you to understand what happened, and it can make money. Of course, if it is properly developed and implemented.
P.S. I'm not saying that it is fundamentally impossible to create a normal profitable system without multicurrency analysis. No one has yet proved that the quoting process is a martingale, even only by the flow of quotors themselves.
A couple more words about processes: the quoting process of each major pair is almost a perfect martingale by the flow of quotes themselves. The trend emergence is very difficult to identify in time (FA is not used!). But the trick is that if we look at several of these streams at the same time, the situation changes: there are periodic intervals when KKK emerges and all pairs start a synchronous movement against the currency of KKK.
Okay. If you take your nightmare - Oak's martingale.))
Well, it wouldn't be a martingale if you removed the nectr. elements from the set. Or did I misunderstand the proof?
Fuck knows. I didn't look closely at the proof.
Можно долг уменьшить не только мартингалом. Удвоение порождает риск, можно проще. Пусть например позиция с долгом станет индикатором и направляющей.
No. Martingale is from set theory. Martingale is from games.
Different things.
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But thanks for the feedback anyway!
Any channel will not show when a trend wants to change positions and stubbornly start making way in the other direction. The channel is for past situations, it is finding some kind of pattern.
The direction of the trend should be taken and held all the time. And any position, even a negative one, should not be seen as negative but as indicative of an opposite bet.
To put it down to mathematics, a trend is identified as an increment over time in relation to volatility. The more specific definitions of trend in TA are based on particular properties of the price series. They are useful, but not universal. Therefore the trend can be formalised in many ways - as long as it is profitable