First sacred cow: "If the trend started, it will continue" - page 12
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
That's strong, Sergei. Why not?
When the trend is on the chart, it is time to exit the market.
Overbought and oversold is a complete abstraction.
The price does not know where it will be in a minute, and even more so in a year.
The price may be dependent on certain levels.
"When the trend is outlined on the chart, it is time to exit the market.
I agree. I was speaking about the pattern that confirms the market reversal, i.e. the beginning of the trend.
"Overbought and oversold is a complete abstraction.
I disagree. I will not write about indicators. The trend is going on and the crowd is drooling - how wonderful. No one pays attention to the blackness. Gradually the negativity accumulates, the growth starts to slow down and the trend stops, a sideways trend begins. Even stunning news does not move the market anymore. Blackness is growing, but the market is not turning around yet. One day some trivial news item "US oil inventories are down 200,000 barrels (less than one percent)" turns the market around. And exactly the same movement when oversold. From my own life. I trade RAO EU shares. I learned to identify overbought/oversold quite accurately. I am waiting for the news that will reverse the trend. And then Chubais comes out with some black ink in the overbought zone and the sweetest treacle in the oversold zone. The market turns around. And so it goes several times. I realised that this calamity of the country called Chubais has got into my computer and according to my calculations is making black ink and pouring molasses. And there's Bernanke on forex. And there are plenty of others.
"Price doesn't know where it'll be in a minute, much less a year."
The price does not know, but the crowd is carefully watching each other and at one moment the movement starts in formation and the more traders trigger the patterns of detecting the reversal, the stronger is the growth, and then it manages to draw channels, flaps, general glee begins, which ends with the overbought.
I admit there is some dependence of the price on certain levels.
Undoubtedly. It is a property of the market called "chart self-definition". It includes the bounces from the round figures, and the reversals from the Fibo levels, channels, longs, etc. But apart from bounces, there are also breakouts.
2 Vita, joo:
So you both think it's not trader's wisdom (which I naively think it is myself), but a meaningless tautology. Right?...
Right. Tautology.
It's true. How can they not?! They exist, they can't not exist. You can't, after all, claim that fantasies, about the trend, don't exist.
"When the trend is on the chart, it's time to get out of the market."
I agree. I was talking about a pattern that confirms a market reversal, i.e. the beginning of a trend.
"Overbought and oversold is a complete abstraction."
I disagree. I will not write about indicators. The trend is going and the crowd is drooling - how wonderful. No one pays attention to the blackness. Gradually the negativity accumulates, the growth starts to slow down and the trend stops, a sideways trend begins. Even stunning news does not move the market anymore. Blackness is growing, but the market is not turning around yet. One day some trivial news item "US oil inventories are down 200,000 barrels (less than one percent)" turns the market around. And exactly the same movement when oversold. From my own life. I trade RAO EU shares. I learned to identify overbought/oversold quite accurately. I am waiting for the news that will reverse the trend. And then Chubais comes out with some black ink in the overbought zone and the sweetest treacle in the oversold zone. The market turns around. And so it goes several times. I realised that this calamity of the country called Chubais has got into my computer and according to my calculations is making black ink and pouring molasses. And there's Bernanke on forex. And there are plenty of others.
"Price doesn't know where it'll be in a minute, much less a year."
The price does not know, but the crowd is carefully watching each other and at one moment the movement starts in formation and the more traders trigger the patterns of detecting the reversal, the stronger is the growth, and then it manages to draw channels, flaps, general glee begins, which ends with the overbought.
I admit there is some dependence of the price on certain levels.
Undoubtedly. It is a property of the market called "chart self-definition". It includes the bounces from the round figures, and the reversals from the Fibo levels, channels, longs, etc. But besides bounces, there are also breakouts.
That would be OK, but I do not believe that the price is controlled by the crowd. Most likely, it is separate individuals.
And they cannot be suspected in transient and ill-considered decisions.
That's strong, Sergei. Why wouldn't it be?
I wrote about it in my first post in this thread (of course - it's just my opinion). Why didn't you notice? :о) They (trends) don't exist, but there are people looking for linear regressions (or channels built according to different rules) with the maximum slope on history and assuring that they have found a trend. There are people pissing around the two lines and speculating about causes and other bullshit. If one defines trends as those channels, then yes - there are trends! But then we must admit that they also exist on random data. As a rule, very few people agree with that - they are trends after all. The word is magic.
All right - show us the trend, please. I would really like to see it.
I wrote about it in my first post in this thread (of course - this is just my opinion). Why didn't you notice? :о) They (trends) don't exist, and there are people looking for linear regressions (or channels built according to different rules) with maximum slope on history and assuring that they have found a trend. There are people pissing around the two lines and speculating about causes and other bullshit. If one defines trends as those channels, then yes - there are trends! But then we must admit that they also exist on random data. As a rule, very few people agree with that - they are trends after all. The word is magic.
All right - show us the trend, please. I'd love to see it.
Better yet, after you show a trend (not to Mathemat, but to anyone who dares to do it), open in real life so that everyone can see it, and finally understand how trends should be traded.
And so it goes once - 100 times.
I wrote about it in my first post in this thread (of course - this is just my opinion). Why didn't you notice? :о) They (trends) don't exist, but there are people looking for linear regressions (or channels, built according to different rules) with the maximum slope on history and assuring that they have found a trend. There are people pissing around the two lines and speculating about causes and other bullshit. If one defines trends as those channels, then yes - there are trends! But then we must admit that they also exist on random data. As a rule, very few people agree with that - they are trends after all. The word is magic.
All right - show us the trend, please. I'd love to see it.
You can draw a line through any 2 points. Not through any 3 points you can draw a line. (I think that's an axiom?)
The trend is a linear regression confirmed by a parallel line
Constructed on 3 lows (or highs). <--- Options for buy and sell.
..
But until you wait for that confirmation the trend is over.
Better yet, after you show a trend (not Mathemat, but anyone who dares to do it), open in real life so that everyone can see it and finally understand how to trade trends.
And so once - 100 times.
>> well, yes, it is enough to analyse the sustainability of such a trend
You can draw a line through any 2 points. Not through any 3 points a line can be drawn. (I think that's an axiom?)
Trend is a linear regression confirmed by a parallel line
Constructed on 3 lows (or highs). <--- Options for buy b sell.
..
But wait till this confirmation the trend is over.
C-4 gave a randomly generated series here. Tell me, how many such trends do you need to find on it? 7, 20, maybe 500? As many as you need, I'll find them. Will they also be trends?
Here C-4 gave a randomly generated series. How many of such trends do you need to find on it? 7, 20 or maybe 500? I will find as many for you as I need. Will they also be trends?
By this criterion you will not find any in the randomly generated one.
I'm going to refine the criterion by taking a section of the graph. On it we draw a linear regression.
If the regression is increasing we look for 3 minima .
We draw a line on minima (1 if possible), compare for parallels with regression (2 if it converges), it means a trend.