Testing real-time forecasting systems - page 16
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Dear Gentlemen Oracles of Finance, Forecasters, Programmers!!!
I have recently started trading GBPJPY. I have formed a channel. On the chart it is bounded by two red lines for clarity.
Can you please tell me where the price will go in the near future? This is vital for me to know!
Dear Gentlemen Oracles of Finance, Forecasters, Programmers!!!
I have recently started trading GBPJPY. I have formed a channel. On the chart it is bounded by two red lines for clarity.
Can you please tell me where the price will go in the near future? This is vital for me to know!
..... and I'm not amused....
Nice hedgehog!
And I love astrology, but I'm experimenting with non-traditional astrologer tools. For example, I was in a cafe, drinking coffee. Decided to use the hard sediment in a cup for its intended purpose, a very malleable material for creativity :o). As a result - a dirty table and very doubtful forecast on 15 minutes of EURUSD coffee grounds for the whole Monday, which makes the forecast absolutely useless, because it will probably be wrong.
This is what the initial state of the system probability field looks like:
x - time samples
y - price levels
z - probability
I apologize at once that there are integers by levels. These are peculiarities of model calculation and peculiarities of MathCAD for these types of charts. At least I haven't figured out how to fix it yet (to feed normal numbers for visualization). Nearby for clarity I have placed correspondence of levels to their numbers:
The most probable movement is sideways, there is a probability that it will go down and a very small probability that after the 40th count (each count is 15 minutes) there will be a strong move up.
Next, the same, but only a contour representation (processed, the main thing left out):
A few statistically possible realisations of the process don't need to be looked at at all (it's too early to look at them carefully yet), except to estimate the main stat parameters:
Maybe there will be a strong move down in the zone of 7-12 counts to the level of 1.3232. Or maybe not, statistics is an exact science in terms of probability, it may or may not happen.
PS:
Hopefully no one will trade on the levels shown, the overall assessment of the feasibility of the forecast is very modest (for a variety of reasons).
I wonder if anyone remembers this ginger prediction at all ^__^