Scold :) Interested to hear your opinion regarding... - page 8
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I apologize for interfering, I've been coming to the conclusion about T/P and S/L getting in the way for about half a year.
In fact everything has boiled down to the probability of further movement for a certain period of time, if it is high - we stay in a position without looking at anything, if it has fallen below a certain value we close it without looking at anything.
That's right. Unfortunately, this destructive heresy, to look for patterns and statistical advantages with T&Os, is widespread and pursued by semi-knowledgeable people relentlessly.
Quite right. Unfortunately, this destructive heresy, to look for regularities and statistical advantages, is widespread everywhere and is being imposed by semi-knowledgeable people relentlessly.
If only mt initially had no built-in T/p and S/L, time would be saved.
>>Why did you close with T/P 30 if the trend was 90?
I like MT.)
As for the values, constant, I just asked the question above, what do you think about it?
With a fixed TP you can clearly see which moves you caught, which you didn't, and how much you under-trended, and how much each nasty little swing didn't reach your TP. The first thing that comes to mind is to make an adaptive TP. Nothing changes fundamentally, only the analysis of deals becomes more complicated. Floating TP is just a question of what size trend you expect, i.e. it comes down to whether you can predict whether the trend will last or not? If you can, then fixed TRs and SLs don't do you any favours.
I doubt anyone has a formula indicating that the trend will last a little longer, a formula that can be run on every bar over and over again until the trend runs out. It's an illusion that encourages all sorts of trailing, floating takeovers, etc.
For me TP is a rigidly calibrated fix based on a statistical analysis of a certain situation. Each situation can be traded and analyzed. If suddenly it appears to me that I know under what circumstances I can expect a larger TP, then I have to break down a particular situation into parts and analyze each part separately, which simply creates new different situations with their own fixed stops.
I think it is already practically clear why fixed take and stops are appropriate in a volatile market. Fixed take and stops are applied to a specific (read, fixed) situation. This is a situation in which you expect to take a profit with a certain probability. That means you've got everything formalized and you know exactly what the situation is, including exactly what specific take and stop values will bring you the maximum profit. You have no reason to be nervous and reduce the probability of getting the maximum return.
If you want to calculate TP on the fly, it means that your system is not very formalized, you have vague and intuitive ideas about the distribution, and you don't have statanalysis. Otherwise I must believe, that you have the trend law (formula) in your hands, into which you put the data and get the answer - is it worth to take TP or not?
Quite right. Unfortunately, this pernicious heresy, to look for patterns and statistical advantages with the help of takes and stops, is widespread and is being imposed by semi-knowledgeable people relentlessly.
Why do you judge all approaches to market research only by yourself? Today you think that T&C and S/L are universal evils, and tomorrow you may think ... You can't make all EAs look alike. And those semi-knowledgeable people are relentlessly proving you, the experts, that you may be wrong (https://championship.mql4.com/ru/).
2 Mishek: If there is a strategy based on stable (even for some period of time) market features, one can and should exploit this feature.
If you knew the price you would live in Sochi (about 30 and he went further). It is simply ridiculous to reason in this way.
Why do you, dear one, judge all market research approaches on your own merits? Today you think that S/L is the universal evil, and tomorrow perhaps ... You can't make all EAs into one thing. And those semi-knowledgeable people are relentlessly proving you, the experts, that you may be wrong (https://championship.mql4.com/ru/).
2 Mishek: If there is a strategy based on stable (even for a certain period of time) market properties, you can and should exploit this property.
If you knew the price you would live in Sochi (about 30 and he went further). It is simply ridiculous to reason like that.
I remember children whose last hope argument in kindergarten was: "Ask my mum". I could be wrong, and I'm not even afraid of that. That's why I make arguments, I criticise ideas, not personalities. I realise that your arguments are all at your mum's, ie somewhere at https://championship.mql5.com/2012/ru/, but still, could you give an example of finding a pattern or stat advantage with the help of tees and stops as an argument here? Just give an argument. It would also be interesting to hear how any particular take and stop can become a countable property of the market?
Just for fun - today I made a logical mistake in the code, and got such an image (under a certain condition positions were opened in the trend, on each bar). Fun :) This is for 6 months :)
Bars in test 36456
Ticks modelled 71897
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 100000.00
Total net profit 571001.31
Gross profit 2794707.81
Gross loss -2223706.50
Profit factor 1.26
Expected payoff 165.94
Absolute drawdown 14279.06
Maximal drawdown 830925.98 (55.72%)
Relative drawdown 66.75% (403293.26)
Total trades 3441
Short positions (won %) 3343 (36.55%)
Long positions (won %) 98 (51.02%)
Profit trades (% of total) 1272 (36.97%)
Loss trades (% of total) 2169 (63.03%)
Largest
profit trade 3889.46
loss trade -1938.21
Average
profit trade 2197.10
loss trade -1025.22
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 134 (484656.84)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 135 (-168971.99)
Maximal
consecutive gains (count of wins) 484656.84 (134)
consecutive losses (count of losses) -168971.99 (135)
Average
consecutive wins 10
consecutive losses 17
I agree with you that it's a moot point to look for a pattern by trying out take profit levels. But you don't have to give up using Take Profit and Stop Loss levels either.
What's the difference between the two, you ask?
Imagine a hypothetical situation.
We are sitting at the country house, playing word games about a black box...
And in the black box there is a trading system running, and we do not know anything about the presence and quality of bets - what is there - is it an open order or what kind of order?
We only see the entire current and historical market. By controlling the trade, we can influence a single lever - switch it up or down. Perhaps this model does not fully answer the trader's situation during a trade, but it makes it easier to formulate the question:
Here, if the lever is "up", what do you think it is? SL Sell or TP Sell?
And the most important thing - this model shows that by switching the lever, we are not just clicking randomly, but making a trading decision based on some kind of trading system. If we use the Vita terminology, then we have a useful formula with the statistical advantage. Then we click on the formula, but not because we "cut lots".
SL and TP are the essence of the order to stop there and start back. They are two sides of the same coin, they are mirror images of the same thing.
---
A word about terminology.
Here this StopLoss is emotionally perceived as "stop doing me wrong" and Profit as "Give me mine soon". This perception of terms to a large extent predetermines our own use of them.
Parkinson writes very well about the impact of such accidents.
In the American Parliament there is a semi-circular hall. The deputies are arranged pro rata to their convictions - on the left are leftists, on the right - rightists, and those in the middle are to the left of John, but to the right of Harry.
In the English Parliament, the room is ... two-sided. Every MP is forced to sit either for Labour or Conservative. And you can clearly see who's where :) And this arrangement of the chamber has largely defined the party system in England.
Вот, представьте гипотетическую ситуацию.
........question:
Here, if the lever is "up", what do you think it is? SL Sell or TP Sell?
I think it is TP Buy or SL Buy:)
Actually, give me some time to digest this hypothetical situation.
SL and TP are essentially orders to stop there and start back.
Well why the extremes, there could be more options than these two.
Vita писал (а)
To Alex or anyone else interested.
Long time ago I came up with an "exercise" for myself when it became very embarrassing that, with the rarest of exceptions, everyone is focused on finding an entry.
Depending on free time we write the entrance schedule 1-2 times a day for a month ahead, absolutely random.
Entry is mandatory, you can close it immediately.
At the first stage we learn to minimize the losses.
But when in a couple of weeks or later the P.Factor goes up (and this is at random entries) radically changes the notion of take and stop.
Of course you should follow the schedule honestly. Self-deception does not help anyone.