A probability theory problem - page 7
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It seems to me that the probabilistic approach to trading, from my point of view, is unpromising.
The fact is that the behaviour of the market is subject to fairly strict laws, the regularities of which are understood by a few. For most people, market behaviour appears chaotic and unpredictable... But it is not. The algorithm of market behavior at any given moment is set by the specific events happening in the world. Therefore, a successful trader, knowing about the occurrence of certain or sudden events, can accurately enough specify the movement of this or that pair. The task of each trader, from my point of view, is to find these regularities of market behavior.
From my point of view - a very promising direction can be an attempt to describe market behavior at a certain moment of time as a physical ball, which receives some impulse to move. And the stronger this impulse is, the more (due to its inertia) obvious will be the direction of movement and the possible path...
I think you're not quite right, of course in terms of signal generation TS the probabilistic approach is just unwise - as you put it is unpromising, but this approach is the basis for the system of rules for money management, in creating TS.
From 1943 R.Wiener as a mathematician participated in the development of an anti-aircraft fire control system,
in which the probable hit sectors of the individual anti-aircraft machines overlapped the likely trajectory of the target.
As a result of this work, R. Wiener declared a new science - cybernetics.
The application of probability theory to pre-1943 stock trading is unwise.
№1
Among the 20 electrical appliances there are 2 faulty ones. Draw the law of distribution of the number of faulty appliances among the four simultaneously observed. Find the mathematical expectation and the standard deviation of this random variable.
No. 2
The error of a measuring instrument is a random variable distributed according to the normal law. Its standard deviation is 4 µ and there is no systematic error. Find the probability that in 6 independent measurements the error will exceed (modulo)3 μ less than 4 times.
No.3
As a result of gun wear and tear the probability of hitting the target decreases by 0.1% with each shot. For the first shot this probability is 0.9. Find the limits of the number of hits at 100 shots that are guaranteed with a probability of at least 0.9.
If I don't make it by tomorrow, I'll be killed : (
Thank you very much in advance!
Try here, you'll find it easier to deal with.
Good afternoon all:) Please help me solve this.
Especially the first one)
Olga, you can find examples of solving exactly the same problems in any textbook, so why come here?
The first problem is solved using the Moab-Laplace integral theorem, the second problem is solved using the binomial distribution formula, the third problem is solved using the Bayes formula, the fourth problem is solved using the full probability formula, the fifth problem is solved by finding the number of combinations using the combinatorial formula and dividing by the total number of cases, the sixth problem is solved simply by writing the number of placements without repetitions.
Hello.
Help me decide, please)
1) 70% of the products of the Yunost association are of the highest grade. What is the probability that among 1000 products of this association the highest grade will be at least 682 and no more than 760 products?
2) The lot contains 10% of the substandard products. Three products are chosen at random. Formulate the law of distribution of the number of non-standard products among the 3 selected. Find M(x) and D(x).
Thank you very much in advance)
Completely confused as to how to determine the total probability of events:
Task:
Let's say an up candle is '1', a down candle is '0'.
Event: 000 => 1 (the first three candles are down, so the next one is up). Event Probability: 0.7
Event: 00 => 1 (the previous two candles are down, the next one is up). Event Probability: 0.33
Event: 0 => 1 (previous candle is down, it means the next one is up). Probability of event: 0.5
And it does not necessarily mean that with 000 => 1 comes also 00 => 1 etc.
What is the probability of these simultaneous occurrences (000 => 1 and 00 => 1, and 0 => 1)?
Zero. The events 0001, 001? and 01? - are mutually exclusive, hence they cannot occur simultaneously.
Either the problem statement is incorrect.
Hello.
70% of the products of the association "Yunost" are of the highest grade. What is the probability that there will be at least 682 products of this association out of 1000?Mari-katrin:
70% of the products of the Yunost association are of the highest grade. What is the probability that there are no more than 760 products of this association among 1,000 products of the highest grade?
Mari-katrin:
There are 10% non-standard products in a batch. Randomly choose 3 products. Write the law of distribution of the number of non-standard products among the 3 chosen products.
Distribution:
0 (unst. ed.) - 0.729
1 - 0.243
2 - 0.027
3 - 0.001
Mari-katrin:
Find M(x) and D(x)