Market condition - flat or trend? Which dominates? - page 4
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What is it... for what? For my system? I said I'm not guided by these concepts in building a trading system.
For your system? Well, that's... that's where your cards are in your hands. When you figure it out, let us know, it will be interesting to hear.
In general, of course, things will be different.
Of course, everyone has their own approach and view of things and processes. It is not the aim to convince you that you need it. In any case, thank you for taking part in the discussion.
I, unfortunately, have no programming skills. Therefore, if anyone is interested in this subject, I am willing to share my vision. The result IMHO, has not only theoretical, but also quite applied value. I have a positive result from the use, but my doubts are gnawing - what if I was just lucky all the time? I would like to check it. If I manage to find someone who is interested in it, I will inform you about the results.
Really, I wonder who it is for? :-) (...... When you find out, let us know, it will be interesting to hear.)
And what are the terms you are guided by? (if it is not a secret)
Before looking for the difference between a trend and a "flat", you should first decide how you are going to define a trend. If it is a straight line equation and the slope of this line indicates a trend (50 degrees, let's say). Then simply by taking a different sample size (data set) you will get a different slope angle, etc.
That's why they say that every TS has its own concept, its own philosophy.
IHMO there is no flat at all, there is only a trend = a straight line with a different slope angle
Xadviser
Before looking for the difference between a trend and a "flat", first define how you are going to define a trend. If it is a straight line equation and the slope of this line indicates a trend (50 degrees, let's say). Then simply by taking a different sample size (data set) you will get a different slope angle, etc.
That's why they say that every TS has its own concept, its own philosophy.
IHMO there is no flat at all, there is only a trend = a straight line with a different slope angle
It may be a flat - it all depends on the period, on which you are working. In particular, the last 2 days of trading on EURUSD on H1 did not look like a trend...
It may be called a flat, when the price is not much different at the beginning and at the end of the day (within the range of 20-40 points).
a little late:
PS1: I have a question, (from a neighbouring thread) where can I read about optimal reinvestment theory? I think it will come in handy soon.
I can't fit in the archives because of the volume.
Look online: V.Zhizhilev "Optimal Strategies for Profit Extraction" and Ezhov A.A., Shumsky S.A. "Neurocomputing".
Thanks :o))))
Xadviser
Before looking for the difference between a trend and a "flat", you should first decide how you are going to define a trend. If it is a straight line equation and the slope of this line indicates a trend (50 degrees, let's say). Then simply by taking a different sample size (data set) you will get a different slope angle, etc.
That's why they say that every TS has its own concept, its own philosophy.
IHMO there is no flat at all, there is only a trend = a line with a different slope angle
Flat can happen - it all depends on the period you are working on. In particular, last 2 days of trading on EuroDollar on H1 would not be called a trend...
We can call a flat the period when the price is not much different at the beginning and at the end of the day (within 20-40 points).
Your definition of flat is too philosophical. It only depends on the beginning and the end of the day, and all + you've chosen the criterion of difference. If the price went up 5 times by 100 points and 6 times down by 100 points, and the difference between the beginning and the end of the day is 100 points, then it is clearly a trend day. Then it is clearly a trendy day :-) or so.
Attention all current and future (I hope) discussants!
PLEASE read the thread topic and its contents carefully.
1. It is not the task of defining what is a trend and a flat, respectively
2. It'snot the task to define the boundaries of one and the beginning of the other.
As correctly observed by SK. 30.03.2008 17:49
The conditions (the parameters of some process) exist before the notions of trend and flat are born. Within the framework of some particular process it is possible to define the notions of a trend and a flat. Moreover, it can be done
based on one's own will. You can do it on the basis of some calculated threshold in some trading system.
https://forum.mql4.com/ru/11661/page3
And I agree with him.
Let us assume that the boundaries already exist. Let's assume (conditionally) that the trend average value for the analyzed pair and for the given TF is one day, we have 400 intervals with the trend
turned out to be 400. Then having analyzed a considerably longer period of time (for example, three years) we obtain that PRECAUSTED PARAMETERS in the trade shows price during 400 days and 695 days in
flat. The ratio 36.5% trend to 63.5% flat.
Questions:
1. Has anyone calculated similar ratios and at what given parameters?
2. How will ratios change:
a) with other parameters on the same TF
b) on other TFs on the same currency pair
c) on other currency pairs
Now why all this?
In my opinion, statistical indicators are the essence of certain regularities of price movements (or their absence. It all depends on the statistical data obtained)
They (regularities) may be used as a factor in trading (as the main or auxiliary, depending on your taste).
1. Many traders decide which tactic to use either breakout or rebound in the channel. If we take as a base the statement I quoted at the beginning of the branch (about
80% of time), the question should be solved by itself. However, there is no confirmation of this statement. And so far nobody, with the exception of
grasn 28.03.2008 11:32
After my own, trivial experiments came to another conclusion: local (and no other) flat and trend exist in approximately the same proportion.
https://forum.mql4.com/ru/11661
has not give any proof (not speculation) on this subject.
2. The topic of martingale has been (and is) hotly debated more than once.
As SK has repeatedly pointed out . 28.03.2008 22:59
The main mistake a is to take into account the history of events on the game account.
https://forum.mql4.com/ru/11667/page3
SK. 29.03.2008 16:14
The market is certainly not random, but the development of the market does not depend on the trading history of the individual account. Therefore the history of trades cannot be considered as a criterion for either
determining the direction or value of new trades (or rather, it can be considered, but this consideration will not lead to a positive result).
https://forum.mql4.com/ru/11667/page5
Martingale in its pure form as a history of previous deals (as a rule increasing bets after losing) is not applicable in trading. Opponents of this assertion prove their point
opponents of this statement prove their point of view by means of increasing balance graphs. However, in this case, it is not the history of transactions that works in their favor, but the PRICES MOTION LEGISLATION. The more it works, the higher is the sought-after
ratio of flat to trend.
Without answering basic questions and assessing basic patterns there is no point in starting a trade. "This is a popular wisdom.
1. It is not the task of defining what is a trend and a flat, respectively
2. It is not the task of defining the boundaries of one and the beginning of the other.
Several people have already tried to tell you that it is impossible to determine the trend/flat ratio without solving these problems.
Your "Let's assume" and "Assume (conventionally)" are not problem conditions (to be solved) or question statements (to be answered).
And instead of reading and thinking, you yell at everyone else. This is not good...
So far the questions are really philosophical. "Is there a trend?", "when does it start?", "what is a flat?", etc.
Several people have already tried to tell you that it is impossible to determine the trend/flat ratio without solving these problems.
Your "Let's assume" and "Assume (conventionally)" are not problem conditions (to be solved) or question statements (to be answered).
And instead of reading and thinking you yell at everyone else. This is not good...
While the questions are really philosophical. "Is there a trend?", "when does it start?", "what is a flat?", etc.
Your comment is constructive, although it does not answer the questions posed.
Perhaps I didn't formulate my question quite correctly, using the unformalized concepts of "trend" and "flat". But I was "pushed" to use them by the original source
It is generally accepted that the market is mostly sideways and trends in the market about 15-20% of the time. https://book.mql4.com/ru/samples/expert
It would be more correct to use the term "Price Range". And as mentioned above it (price range = flat) can simply be set, not solved. (although I agree that at least a simple solution as justification should be there). It's just that for me this "philosophical question" has been solved, and so I've moved on to the next one, not taking into account the lack of answer many have to the first one.
If someone thought that my request to conduct a constructive dialog, was followed by a tone of voice (turning into a shout :-)), I AGREE TO PRAY, because I did not intend to hurt anyone, to offend, etc.
If you are willing to assist me in solving this problem, I would be very grateful. As promised, I will post the results here. Or you can do it too. Perhaps the results will make a useful article, so as not to return to this topic.
2 Xadviser:
Do I understand correctly that you have a "definition" of trend/float, but since that definition is actually the essence of a breakout TS you don't want to publish it? But for other "definitions" the statistics will, in general, be different. So the point of this thread personally remains unclear to me. If the problem is in the program for collecting statistics, you do have to share your "definition" with at least one of the programmers. But you are unlikely to find the definitions that allow you to build a reliable and profitable TS. Even if someone has such a definition. Which of course is unlikely :)
Xadviser
You are told throughout this thread, but in different words, that every trader's TS has its own notion of a trend. Not to mention the flat. In order to continue further constructive conversation. Express your philosophical thoughts as follows
1. TrendThe formula is considered so-and-so.
2. FlatThe formula is so-and-so and so-and-so.
Let's have the formulae in a studio. You can yell at yourselves and have a conversation with yourself.
Z.U. And you are so reverent, to this branch and ask to speak on the subject, but in other branches that do. Are all posts there on topic? With links to this thread.