An effective trading strategy based on multi-currency analysis of multiple DCs - page 2
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and uses lagged quotes
I think you misunderstood what we are talking about and what I am suggesting in this strategy.
1 - it's the same picture on the real.
2 - "so with a strong confidence in the result. "You are absolutely right, after three weeks of trading it was an absolute certainty.
3 - We are not talking about pipsing here at all. When an Expert Advisor is trained on the basis of multicurrency analysis, its algorithm is based on comparing the dynamics of changes in various symbols, and if these changes are stable and one instrument is constantly ahead of the other in its movement, even a fraction of a second, it will be enough for the expert system to understand and remember this fact. Due to this, the accuracy of both short-term and medium-term forecasts increases. And when using quotes from several brokerage companies the difference in dynamics becomes even more significant, and I tried to draw your attention to it.
1 - Have you tested the method on a real account?
2 - Why was the absolute certainty?
3 - If we are not talking about pipsing, then tell me how the accuracy of predictions, both short-term and medium-term, may be affected by changes in the dynamics of various instruments of different brokerage companies, even for a fraction of a second?
Don't take it as a criticism, I'm just trying to understand what this strategy is about and what you are suggesting :)
2). Confidence is a psychological concept. When you trade and see that you keep the situation under control, and can react in time to market changes, and the practice of several weeks confirms it, then comes the confidence.
3). To understand it thoroughly you need to master the basics of time series forecasting. But in brief, it can be explained this way: during training of an expert system based on multicurrency analysis for forecasting behavior of some security, we select the group of the most correlated with it symbols. And if movement of one security predetermines movement of another security correlated with it throughout the entire training phase on a sufficiently large sample of historical data, then the expert system in its training takes it into account when forming further forecasts. But I want to emphasize that an Expert Advisor, if it has no special block of generating trade signals adjusted to a certain type of trading, makes forecasts for a certain time interval in advance, for which it was trained. Deciding how to trade, pipsing, intraday trading or mid-term trading, is done by the trading system or a person, in manual trading.
For example, my Expert Advisor gives a forecast one hour ahead on a 5-minute timeframe, i.e. I have a chart on High, Low, Close and also on the trend which is separated from Close by means of vivelet transformation for 12 time steps, and I have to decide myself how to use this information.
In this strategy I propose first of all to widen my view on the possibilities of effective trading on forex, and not to fixate only on indicators, which cannot give any prediction, when building my trading systems.
My understanding of the author is that he created an index of different pairs
then took some DTs.
and uses lagged quotes.
this strategy needs a good quality internet to get a stream of quotes for several instruments
from different dealers
Piligrimm right ?
If you have confidence, then why offer something to the general public? It is necessary to quietly order the writing of the expert to a qualified programmer and start making money. If you do not have start-up money, you have to earn money to write the EA, even if it is a "sure" system, and then relax and start examining catalogues of ocean-going yachts. Why all this blah-blah-blah? Or are you already writing from a yacht and are you driven solely by the desire to help your neighbour?
Tough... but true.
As I understand it, the author of the post is confident in what he got by the given statement and in what he observed at real quotes... well, and something else. However the author's wish to become more confident in case he suddenly realizes his system in a form of an automaton that will show the results expected by the author during back and forward tests; or to give up the idea having lost confidence in case the machine shows opposite results; or to give up the idea to use help and advice of forum participants in case the discussion results show that the machine cannot be created and try to create it by himself; or something else, but then I do not see the point of this post.
I once read somewhere that 'we all trade on our beliefs'. Someone believes the dollar will rise and he invests in the dollar. It doesn't matter what his belief is based on. He may have been wrong, but he didn't just babble on, he acted, he staked his conviction on it. If even the author of the idea does not believe in it enough to invest real money in it, what kind of conviction can we talk about? Do you want to scratch your tongue about virtual millions?
As a matter of fact - it is suggested to try to exploit the imperfection of dealing centres rather than the market, i.e. to take money not from the market, but from the pockets of DCs. This may work for some time. We may even bankrupt a particular dealing center and get nothing as a result. In my opinion, a purely kitchen approach - not interesting.
I once read somewhere that "we all trade on our beliefs".
You read it in B. Williams, in his profound rants about trading chaos. If you treat that phrase (and all his writing) not too critically, you can get a strong conviction that all is as he writes and, as a result, get very screwed.I mean that one must not confuse one's "beliefs" with reality. It is typical of beginners, adventurers, women, etc.
If a trader wants to use a TS, he must first get practical confirmation that it works for him and not against him.
timbo - you and I have different ideas about life values. I have always been a professional market trader, I have learned it from my experience when I started in trading.
DrawDown - read the first lines of the post, and you will understand why it was created, I said so in the preface.
I don't need any additional "confidence", I'm not a programmer, I'm an analyst, and for the most part, I've been developing algorithms and strategies and not only in the application to trading for many years. If you're talking about "back and forward tests", then you have not understood the essence of the idea. Multicurrency strategies, especially using multiple brokerage companies quotes, cannot be tested that way. You have not read my posts carefully, and then make conclusions for me, distorting the essence of what I've said. I have already implemented a multi-currency strategy in another version, I've been experimenting in this direction for years, and I'm not asking for anyone's help. I have not implemented the proposed idea, as I wrote before, only because of the lack of computer resources, and because there are many ideas that I want to implement, and this is not a first-priority one.
The timbo is not about using imperfection of a particular DC, it is about using imperfection of the information system that we have, and the ability to increase the informativeness of those signs that we get, through efficient preprocessing. The system, only a tool, how you use it is up to you. If you use pips, based on predictions that you get, surely brokerage companies will cut off your oxygen.
It seems that I put my suggestions in the wrong place at the wrong time. I offered the indicator - Kristi, but it quickly disappeared in summer, that is, in the archives. I think, well, people here are creative, they do not need ready-made solutions, they need ideas, everyone wants to do everything with their own hands, I offer an effective proven strategy, and again, instead of substantive discussion - just idle chatter.
All right, let's consider the topic closed.
It seems that I am putting my suggestions in the wrong place at the wrong time. I offered the indicator by Kristi, but it quickly disappeared into oblivion, i.e. into the archive. I think, well, people gathered here creative, they do not need ready-made solutions for nothing, they need ideas, everyone wants to do everything with their own hands, I offer an effective proven strategy, and again, instead of substantive discussion - idle chatter.
To be honest, it was very strange to hear you accusing the forum participants of not being interested in your indicator Kristi!
In the first post of your article you wrote the following directly in the first place
Dear traders, I offer you my trend indicator - Kristi. ' Piligrimm 20.03.2007 01:02
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Please do not ask any questions about the algorithm and how it is created, I will not disclose the algorithm.
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At first sight the indicator looks like more than 1000 lines of code filled with formulas without any comments!
You haven't given any clear examples of its use. All you have is the following phrase:
"...I'm not testing this indicator during demo-program, everyone can test it themselves, according to their tasks..."
"...I developed this indicator more than a year ago, but I gave it up, because I wasn't able to get what I wanted, I wanted to get a trend forecast..."
"...If anyone makes a trading system, showing decent results, based on this indicator - please contact me and give me some help..."
So after all this you're offended that this post of yours turned out to be of no interest to anyone?????
Just think a little bit about what you wrote before you accuse someone of reacting inappropriately in your opinion.
PS: And people here are really creative. And if there is a subject for discussion (and your encryption of infinite formulas in the form of an indicator Kristi cannot be a subject for discussion), then there will be and constructive conversation! However, there are cases when the authors of threads are not interested in constructive conversations, especially when they are pointed to some problems with their proposed ideas. And you can find plenty of such examples on this forum, but that's another issue...