Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 2769

 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:

Signs will be the price spread over the entire history of the instrument divided by the price step)))) And their combination. It seems not the purpose of the number of signs. There are curses.))))

Zy, only without TRIZ))))).
Yes, exactly so, but it is possible to reduce the number of variants using the brain, to discard cosmic variants (discard), to reduce the dimensionality by creating a model (discard) , to discretise/cluster the data (discard).
And now we have billions of options.
Then we do an efficient (as much as possible) search...
It's as simple as that.)


What's wrong with TRIZ?

 
mytarmailS #:
Yes, exactly, but you can reduce the number of options by using your brain, discard space options (discard), reduce dimensionality by creating a model (discard) , discretise/cluster the data (discard)
And then we're down to billions of options.
Then we can do an efficient (as much as possible) search...
It's as simple as that.)


What's wrong with TRIZ?

Well, that's right, it's a pity that there are no substantive discussions of these steps, although everyone here has them, but apparently for some reason they are considered secret))))

There is nothing wrong with TRIZ, as long as it is used as intended))))) The paradigm of correct decisions from the correctness of the approach is generally obvious))))))

I am trying to describe extremums, I came to the conclusion that it is necessary to describe not the extremums themselves, but what is inside / between them, then you can get some description of the state. Also patterns are mostly too different inside to be meaningfully informative. Machine sifting of patterns is certainly better than visual sifting, but it is quite possible to look inside on the lower TFs.

Just some small thoughts)))

 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:

Well, it's true, it's a pity that there are no substantial discussions of these steps, although everyone here has them, but apparently for some reason they are considered secret))))))

There is nothing wrong with trise, as long as it is used as intended))))) The paradigm of correct decisions from the correctness of the approach is generally obvious)))))

I am trying to describe extremums, I came to the conclusion that it is necessary to describe not the extremums themselves, but what is inside / between them, then you can get some description of the state. Also patterns are mostly too different inside to be meaningfully informative. Machine sifting of patterns is certainly better than visual sifting, but it is quite possible that we need to look inside on the lower TFs.

So, small thoughts))))

If there are more patterns than bars in the history, there is something wrong with them already
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
If there are more patterns than bars in the history, there is something wrong with them already

I hope for fractality) And maybe some dynamic descriptions. Dynamic characteristics usually cover whole groups of static ones.

The task of describing the state of a process close to the SB, it doesn't matter why it is close, whether it is the SB or the sum of functions not known to us, it doesn't matter, the task is close in essence to the search for standard states in environments similar to the SB)))))

But the goals are different and accordingly the approaches of solutions.

I like this task more than searching for something in chaotic environments.

 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:

I hope for fractality) And maybe some dynamic descriptions. Dynamic characteristics usually cover whole groups of static ones.

The task of describing the state of a process close to the SB, it makes no difference why it is close, whether it is the SB or the sum of functions unknown to us, it makes no difference, the task is close in essence to the search for standard states in environments similar to SB))))

But the goals are different and accordingly approaches of solutions.

I like this task better than searching for something in chaotic environments.

You do not take into account the very structure of the market, you look at the abstraction... SB or the sum of functions....

I'll show you what you don't consider when you look at an abstraction.
Let's take the example of the sum of functions, I like it better, but it doesn't matter, it's just an example.

So we have a hypothesis that the market is a sum of unknown functions/interference...

So we find the functions, we forecast each function, the sum of forecasts is the total forecast, right? And this will work for abstraction....
But what are we forecasting?
The market is made up of engines - market orders and limit orders, the former move the market, the latter stop it....

So we forecast the market functions, in the course it is like the dynamics of market orders, and here we got the forecast - up, but the market went down.....

Why? Maybe we even correctly predicted the dynamics of market orders, but a limit player appeared and ate them all at the same price.....

The model does not take this into account, the model should take into account the real processes behind the time series, and not just be an abstraction of the SB, or function....

Maybe it's rambling, but as best I can from my phone...
 
mytarmailS #:
You don't take into account the market structure itself, you look at the abstraction... SB or sum of functions....

I'll show you what you don't take into account when you look at abstractions.
Let's take the example of the sum of functions, I like it better, but it doesn't matter, it's just an example.

So we have a hypothesis that the market is the sum of unknown functions/interference...

So we find the functions, forecast each one, the sum of forecasts is the total forecast, right? And it will work for abstraction....
But what are we forecasting?
The market is made up of engines - market orders and limit orders, the former move the market, the latter stop it....

So we forecast market functions, in the course of it is like the dynamics of market orders, and here we got a forecast - up, and the market took and fell.....

Why? Maybe we even correctly predicted the dynamics of market orders, but a limit player appeared and ate them all at the same price.....

The model does not take this into account, the model should take into account the real processes behind the time series, and not just be an abstraction of the SB, or function....

Maybe it's rambling, but as best I can from my phone...

Of course I don't take into account, and I don't set such a task, I'mafraid) )))) I can't cope))))))

I set myself a simpler task, to describe some stable states (not all of course)))) ) through some indicators obtained from history. Weather is described not only by temperature, but also by pressure, wind speed, humidity, sky transparency. We initially have only 2 parameters, price and time. They are definitely not enough to describe the state.

 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:

Of course I don't, and I don't set such a task, I'mafraid as it is) )))))) I can't cope))))))))

I set a simpler task for myself, to describe some stable states (not all of them, of course)))) ) through some indicators obtained from history. Weather is described not only by temperature, but also by pressure, wind speed, humidity, sky transparency. We initially have only 2 parameters, price and time. They're definitely not enough to describe the condition.

Well, I've achieved what bousting can't achieve with a hundred features....
Or rather, it can be bousting, and even better, but it is impossible to load a billion signs into it....

So price and time are enough, processing algorithms are important...

Remember we talked about pixels...? Only three colours of RGB, and how much information it carries in itself if it is processed by the brain....

And all they do here is feed the last 10 pixels from the window, and what is that ungodly AMO supposed to find????
And then there's the non-stationarity in the aftermath.
 

An unprecedented thing happened - in the MO branch they accidentally noticed that quotes are not an abstract series of double values :-) but they try hard to ignore it, because it's difficult

trading EURUSD (euro vs dollar). what do we see?

at least 4 categorically different states: (1) It's day in Europe and national banks change currencies (and the exchange back and forth to the dollar, this is Europe, the states don't need it, they have enough dollars), (2) the states are switched on and the revaluation of funds starts (fixed assets in the states), (3) Europe ends, the states remain, (4) only all others are left.

this is superimposed on the structure of the session: three pronounced peaks in volume - a clear substantial one at the opening, a slightly smeared one after the local lunch and a small final one before the closing. That's how banks work.

And to keep things interesting, leading exchanges organise fixing - at a strictly scheduled time they evaluate potential rates (and conduct corresponding trades). This will be the reference price, but the "big companies" will try to trade actively at this time (this is their "arrow" - it is convenient for them to trade with each other). At these happy times, there are NO TICKS.

That is, there is already a hell of a difference :-)

And as a cherry on the cake - our distributed forex, where each node can be represented as a mass service system; which again has a couple of states - it has time to service orders and react to changes in its neighbours (ticks are regular, 1-2 points each) and it does not have time (ticks are at a "jagged pace" and changes are significant)

 
mytarmailS #:
Well, I've achieved on cloze alone what bousting with a hundred features can't achieve....
Or rather, it can be bousting, and even better, but it is impossible to load a billion signs into it....

So price and time are enough, processing algorithms are important...

Remember we talked about pixels...? Only three colours of RGB, and how much information it carries in itself if it is processed by the brain....

And all they do here is feed the last 10 pixels from the window, and what is that ungodly AMO supposed to find????
And also not a statsyonarstvo in addition to that.
It's good when there are cuts)))) motivation)))))))
A good example with colours, there are of course a lot of them from 3 turns out, all if exactly, but the main 7. And besides the wavelength they also have the saturation of colour, like a wavelength))))) the medium has an optimal number of characteristics to describe the state. A small number gives an inaccurate description, if more we have several sets of characteristics for the same state.


 
Maxim Kuznetsov pace" and changes are significant)
Formalisation has never been simple)))))
Reason: