Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 2565

 
Rorschach #:
A funny thing. I am picking ticks on the Hearst and I get values very different from 0.5 in the spread scale and the larger the time scale, the closer the Hearst is to 0.5. I have made a primitive system on a mask and began to substitute periods of 10, 100, 1000, 10000. All of them have approximately the same expectation. That's what an efficient market is.

I'm almost sure that you can use MO if you read about what this coefficient means.

To teach the system a pattern, depending on the value of the coefficient would not be bad

 
Renat Akhtyamov #:

I'm pretty sure you can apply MO if you read up on what the coefficient means

it would not be bad to teach the system a pattern depending on the value of the coefficient

Come back when you are completely sure
 
Aleksey Vyazmikin #:

First we discard it, and then we combine it.

So, for each predictor we take a rule like 0.5<X<7.3, then we build a number of all possible combinations, where each rule is either included or not. We get 2^N possible variants, where N is the number of predictors. If we take all leaves of all trees obtained by boosting as initial rules, then N is the number of these leaves. In any case, even with a small number of predictors we get a large number of variants, which is connected with two problems:

1) it turns out to be a very long search enumeration

2) The method is too flexible and our compromise between bias and variance is strongly biased towards increasing variance.

In general, for small N (depends on sample size) it can work, but for large - there will be overtraining.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
Come back when you are completely sure

I'm not looking for permission, you misunderstood the meaning of the post

 
Renat Akhtyamov #:

I'm not looking for permission, you misunderstood the meaning of the post

You have to predict its dynamics, plus it's laggy
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
You have to predict its dynamics, plus it's lagging

in terms of

it's just a coefficient.

you find it, make conclusions and forget about Hearst

who says in forex that the quotient has a fractal structure and plus up and down,

literally tick up, tick down.

and the fractal here is practically a triangle similar in appearance to the lognormal distribution chart, the only pattern, there is no other

which by the way was proven by Samuelson and he got a Nobel for it

so let's get the neuronics going

 
Renat Akhtyamov #:

in terms of

it's just a coefficient.

found it, made conclusions and forgot about Hearst

who says in forex that the quotient has a fractal structure and plus up, plus down,

literally tick up, tick down.

and the fractal here is practically a triangle similar in appearance to the lognormal distribution chart, the only pattern, there is no other

which by the way was proven by Samuelson and he got a Nobel for it

So let's get the neuronics going.

At least do not shame Samuelson - he did not prove anything like that.

 
Renat Akhtyamov #:

in terms of

it's just a coefficient.

found it, made conclusions and forgot about Hearst

who says in forex that the quotient has a fractal structure and plus up, plus down,

literally tick up, tick down.

and the fractal here is practically a triangle similar in appearance to the lognormal distribution chart, the only pattern, there is no other

which by the way was proven by Samuelson and he got a Nobel for it

So let's get the neuronics going

What conclusions were drawn?
 
Dmytryi Nazarchuk #:

At least don't shame Samuelson - he didn't prove any such thing.

It would do you good to educate yourself.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky #:
What conclusions were drawn?

https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/375928/page2

If 0 ≤ H < 0.5 - prices are fractals, the validity of FMH is proved, there are "heavy tails" in the distribution of variables, antipersistent series, i.e. negative correlation in price changes, pink noise with frequent changes of price direction;
Reason: