Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? - page 2

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Amir Yacoby #:
One more crucial difference between forex and stocks is the leverage applied. While stock traders mostly trade withour leverage, forex traders in average use 50 or more, which is 50 times riskier. First thing to do is to check what forex traders that trade without leverage are doing

Leverage is actually a double-edged sword. Without it there would'nt be retail traders today, on the other hand, it make the losing process to be much quicker.

 
wayne003 #:

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.


A. Einstein

wayne003 #:

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.


A. Einstein

Yes!

Facts about creativity and innovation, it doesn't usually happen unless you change the way you've been working.

also doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a definition of insanity 

A. Einstein

 
Ndumiso Mavuso #:

Leverage is actually a double-edged sword. Without it there would'nt be retail traders today, on the other hand, it make the losing process to be much quicker.

And most of them use it to perform suicide. I welcome the attitude of thinking it over from start, always. But, there's an easy explanation to the fact of most traders lose, that is logic and easy to understand, which makes it a prefarable one and one that needs to tackle first IMHO.

 
Winners know when to stop. everyone has a different reason for wanting to trade. most are deluded but staying and studying the market will teach you about life and physics but putting money in will give you experience. entropy suggests nothing in these 4 dimensions will escape .   I can look at the EURUSD chart and tell you what each stage and date taught me about life . How the USA devalued the dollar by 3trillion and we saw the spike of the wave in march 2020 on EURUSD and others.. so because we have choice there are now 5 dimensions to navigate . history has 4 dimensions the future is 5 .. the choices you made and the ones you could have .  We have to learn to juggle so that our history reflects our goals .. i have an EA you can message me about as the name was deleted from the post. all the maths is worked out so you can test history based on physics .. volume , direction, spread/commission  ,  time .. 4 dimensions .. Reasearch will show you there are patterns , however low risk patterns dont make much profit and you have to watch them like paint drying .. high risk patters change all the time  .. The literature you first find is misleading as you have questioned so thats the answer inho . However people are intelligent and there is power in knowledge .. I cant study and chase down a buck in the wild anymore , making a bow and arrow and disguising myself. Now i must chase a wild currency and eat from it .
 

Hopefully, my post can help someone reading this thread.

Many popular trading strategies developed last 100 years started to study US stock market.

For example,  Dow Theory (1900s),  Elliott Wave Theory (1930s), Volume Spread Analysis (1930s), Harmonic Pattern (1930s), Value investing (1940s), Triangle and Wedge Patterns (1930s), support and resistance (can't trace back), fibonacci ratio analysis (can't trace back) and so on.

Then all these trading strategies developed in us stock market equally work well in Forex market too.

Hence, those strategy or technical analysis had the second test in forex market but they stood up.

Commodity or future traders also use technical analysis developed from stock market.


Probability is just one sub topic in science and math. It is not necessarily the other way around.

Especially, probabilty or statistic is the math trying to derive something from the historical data.

Once again, using historical data will do something but it is not necessarily better or only approach to test or to study the market.   

In trading, we always need to get in touch with the latest information source.

Hence, one needs to be careful when they analyze the trading business through EA.


Kind regards.

 
Ndumiso Mavuso #:

Thank you Dominik.


First approach I'm busy working on right now is simple actually, first I worked out a definition of UP/Down movement, then workout probabilities then finally risk management approach.

I found a way to define an algorithm for up / down movement, worked out a very promising probability of 54%. I wont go into details its a complex subject but for reference, I got a lot of inspiration from this article .


I will publish the project as a free EA after 30 days live trading test which I hope will be after December 3rd, for further inputs from others willing to approach this differently.

Up and down is a relative term . in different time charts different things are happening you only know the direction after it has happened. why my EA opens both directions in a hedge as the starting point. direction is measured afterwards by profit one side and loss on the other .. then we do something about it .. exploiting the quantum bubble between the buy and the sell    . Ray Dalio in the principles video explains its not that he knew which way the market was going but what he did about it. Yes the literature teaches you false stories , its just the way it was and thats the info that persists.. Who is going to pay the broker so he can pay you ? its a zero sum game. winners and losers . every trade tests you. can the latest physical robots recover from a fall? Yes and  they couldnt even stand a few years ago  . change gravity will it still work ? within limits .. control the limits as gravity changes .. anyone ?
 
Bernhard Stremayr #:
Do you really think that a professional trader who has developed a trading strategy that actually works in forex (the most difficult market to trade, as you all stated by yourself) would sell it for 100 bucks etc. on platforms like mql5.com?

I agree: If you don't have the time/endurance to "educate" yourself in trading forex "24/7" for several years and if you aren't a "nerd" - forget it, you'll only waste your ressources. But basically it is possible to become one out of 100'000 forex traders who beats the market not only randomly for a while but in the long run...

Keep this discussion to general issues please, no advertising is allowed in this forum.

 
A forex analogy and how I see markets working:

Imagine a bucket full of water. That's representing all currencies.

Now imagine icecubes floating on the surface. Each representing one currency.

Now your job is to jump from a lower to a higher (short) or from a higher to a lower (long) while the bucket is being carried around.

Yes, long and short are twisted. Reason is simple: if eurusd is going up and your long position is giving profits, EUR is gaining buying power while USD is loosing buying power.

This seems to me to be one of the best analogies to forex, since it represents most if not all aspects influencing the currencies. Including inflation, deflation (amount of water in the bucket) and news (carrying the bucket).
 
Aldo Marco Ronchese #:
Winners know when to stop. everyone has a different reason for wanting to trade. most are deluded but staying and studying the market will teach you about life and physics but putting money in will give you experience. entropy suggests nothing in these 4 dimensions will escape .   I can look at the EURUSD chart and tell you what each stage and date taught me about life . How the USA devalued the dollar by 3trillion and we saw the spike of the wave in march 2020 on EURUSD and others.. so because we have choice there are now 5 dimensions to navigate . history has 4 dimensions the future is 5 .. the choices you made and the ones you could have .  We have to learn to juggle so that our history reflects our goals .. i have an EA you can message me about as the name was deleted from the post. all the maths is worked out so you can test history based on physics .. volume , direction, spread/commission  ,  time .. 4 dimensions .. Reasearch will show you there are patterns , however low risk patterns dont make much profit and you have to watch them like paint drying .. high risk patters change all the time  .. The literature you first find is misleading as you have questioned so thats the answer inho . However people are intelligent and there is power in knowledge .. I cant study and chase down a buck in the wild anymore , making a bow and arrow and disguising myself. Now i must chase a wild currency and eat from it .
You said a lot of words there. Show at least a demo results of your EA Mr. Let numbers do the talking
 
Young Ho Seo #:

Hopefully, my post can help someone reading this thread.

Many popular trading strategies developed last 100 years started to study US stock market.

For example,  Dow Theory (1900s),  Elliott Wave Theory (1930s), Volume Spread Analysis (1930s), Harmonic Pattern (1930s), Value investing (1940s), Triangle and Wedge Patterns (1930s), support and resistance (can't trace back), fibonacci ratio analysis (can't trace back) and so on.

Then all these trading strategies developed in us stock market equally work well in Forex market too.

Hence, those strategy or technical analysis had the second test in forex market but they stood up.

Commodity or future traders also use technical analysis developed from stock market.


Probability is just one sub topic in science and math. It is not necessarily the other way around.

Especially, probabilty or statistic is the math trying to derive something from the historical data.

Once again, using historical data will do something but it is not necessarily better or only approach to test or to study the market.   

In trading, we always need to get in touch with the latest information source.

Hence, one needs to be careful when they analyze the trading business through EA.


Kind regards.

But stock markets and Forex are two different things. Actually on what basis are you saying those strategies works? Any data to backup?
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