AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Possible Reversal? - page 2
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Breakdown is going on for AUDUSD H4 timeframe:
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AUDUSD, H4, 2014.07.29
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newdigital, 2014.07.29 09:15
What Could Make Or Break the Dollar This Week? (based on forexminute article)
Last week was a really good week to be a dollar bull. The currency gained against all of its major counterparts and even established new highs against some. EUR/USD is currently trading at its 8-month lows around 1.3430; GBP/USD tapped its 4-week lows around 1.6960; USD/CAD is at its 5-week highs above 1.08100.
However, the currency’s fate on the charts could quickly turn this week as the focus shifts back to the United States and the reports due out of the country. The following are the biggest event risks for USD-pairs in the next few days:
1. Q2 2014 Advance GDP
Price action should start to get interesting by Wednesday when the advance GDP report for the second quarter of 2014 is released. Due at 6:00 pm GMT, the report is anticipated to print at 3.1%.
Analysts expect a rebound from the weakness in economic growth that we saw in the first three months of the year because the weather has significantly improved and should not have hampered economic activity anymore in April to June.
2. FOMC Statement
Policymakers are then scheduled to take center stage with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. At 6:00 pm GMT on Wednesday, July 30, no changes to interest rates are expected to be announced.
The Federal Reserve has been notably optimistic about labor market conditions in its past few announcements. And so, market participants will be looking for traces of the central bank’s positivity in this week’s upcoming statement too. The lack of which may cause the dollar to give up ground against some of its counterparts.
3. NFP report for July
The jobs report for July is arguably the biggest market-mover for the dollar this week. On Friday, August 1, at 12:30 pm GMT, markets expect to see another month of strong job growth with the forecast up at 230,000 to follow the 288,000 reading that we saw for June.
Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as well as other key Fed policymakers have been vocal about how important the health of the labor market is in their future monetary policy decisions. And so, the release could once again spark volatility in the markets, like it usually does every month.
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9425 with targets @ 0.938 & 0.9355 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9425 look for further upside with 0.945 & 0.9475 as targets.
Comment: A break below 0.938 would trigger a drop towards 0.9355.
Breakdown is going on for AUDUSD H4 timeframe:
H4 price did not break 0.9384 support level so - ranging:
But if we look at M30 timeframe so it is breakout may be going on soon:
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newdigital, 2014.07.29 18:07
US Dollar May Rise Before Key Data on Firming Consumer Confidence (based on dailyfx article)
July’s Consumer Confidence reading is in focus, with expectations suggesting the index will rise to a six-year high of 85.4. The outcome may help to set the stage for an overstuffed week of high-profile US releases including the FOMC policy announcement, the second-quarter GDP reading and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls number.
The central object of speculation is the length of the time gap between October’s end of the Fed’s “QE3”stimulus program and the beginning of interest rate hikes. With that in mind, upbeat US economic outcomes are likely to support the view that tightening will materialize relatively sooner versus later, pushing the US Dollar higher. Needless to say, soft outcomes are likely to yield opposite result. We remain long the greenback against the Euro as well as the Canadian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade, sliding 0.13 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move lower tracked an overnight decline in S&P 500 index futures, hinting at eroding risk appetite as the catalyst behind selling pressure facing the sentiment-sensitive currency.
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 07:04
Trading Video: Dollar at Resistance, S&P 500 at Support Ahead of GDP and FOMC (based on dailyfx article)
MY preference: Long positions Above 0.93711
MY preference: Long positions with targets @ 0.97566 in extension.