D1 price was on bearish stopped by 1.0841 support level.
H4 price is on primary bearish with secondary flat stopped by same support level: 1.0841.
is on ranging correction within primary bullish and with 1.0814 as nearest support level
D1 price will break 1.0841 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDCAD price movement for this coming week)
2014-06-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]
2014-06-17 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Foreign Direct Investment]
2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2014-06-18 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Wholesale Sales]
2014-06-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2014-06-19 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
2014-06-20 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - CPI]
2014-06-20 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Retail Sales]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDCAD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:18
newdigital, 2014.06.13 21:41
newdigital, 2014.06.16 14:57
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases] = total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked
because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the
Canadian foreign securities purchases increase more-than-expected
Foreign investors’ acquisitions of Canadian securities increased more-than-expected in April, official data showed on Monday.
In a report, Statistics Canada said that foreign investment increased
by a seasonally adjusted C$10.13 billion in April, above expectations
for purchases of C$4.27 billion.
Foreign investors sold C$1.41 billion worth of Canadian securities in March.
At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to C$2.5 billion.
Following the release of the data, the Canadian dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart, with USD/CAD rising 0.15% to trade at 1.0873.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
USDCAD M5 : 11 pips price movement by CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases news event
newdigital, 2014.06.14 18:30
The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, as you can see on
the chart. This market seems to find plenty of support near the 1.08
handle, so we feel that the market is supportive enough that we can
continue to buy on dips and believe that the market will ultimately be
bullish enough to continue on to the 1.12 level or so. With this, we
also believe that the uptrend line that we have seen for some time now
is going to continue to push the market higher as well. Pullbacks should
be thought of as value.
newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:21
newdigital, 2014.06.18 08:56
USD/CAD Forecast June 18, 2014, Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair
rose during the course of the session on Tuesday, but found enough in
the way of resistance above to pull back down and form a shooting star.
The shooting star signifies that the market will probably continue to
fall from here, but there is a significant amount of support below at
the 1.08 handle. It is not until we clear that area to the downside that
we can start selling, aiming for the 1.06 handle. On the other hand, if
we break the top of the range from the Monday session, we would be
confident enough to start buying again and aim for the 1.0950 level.
newdigital, 2014.06.18 14:29
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and Federal Funds Rate (based on dailyfx article)
Despite expectations for another $10B reduction in the Federal Open
Market Committee’s (FOMC) asset-purchase program, the central bank’s
updated forecasts (growth, inflation & interest rate) may have a
greater impact in driving the U.S. dollar as market participants weigh
the outlook for monetary policy.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there’s limited scope of seeing a material shift in the Fed’s
policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to normalize
monetary policy, and the interest rate decision may spur a bearish
dollar reaction (bullish EUR/USD) should we get more of the same from
the central bank.Sticky inflation paired with the ongoing improvement in the labor market
may encourage the FOMC to soft its dovish tone for monetary policy, and
the fresh developments coming out of the central bank may generate a bullish outlook for the dollar should we see a greater dissent within the committee.However, the slowdown in the housing market along with the dismal 1Q GDP
reading may push the FOMC to lower its fundamental projections for the
U.S. economy, and the updated forecasts may heighten the bearish
sentiment surrounding the greenback should the calculations drag on
interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Cuts Another $10B & Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize
USDCAD M5 : 29 pips range price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event:
newdigital, 2014.06.19 12:46
USD/CAD Awaiting Reversal Signal Near Range-Bottom (based on dailyfx article)
As noted in yesterday’s candlesticks report the June FOMC Meeting offered the potential for significant US Dollar volatility. The resulting price action has negated a Gravestone Doji on the daily for USD/CADwhich
had suggested at a potential shift in sentiment for the pair. With
bullish reversal signals now absent, doubt is cast over the possibility
of a bounce. At the same time the range-bottom may offer some support to
the Loonie and leave limited scope for further declines.
USD/CAD: Awaiting Bullish Signal Near Range-Bottom
An examination of the four hour chart similarly
reveals a notable absence of bullish signals, despite the pair pushing
on noteworthy support at 108.15.
newdigital, 2014.06.19 14:40
USD/CAD: Is Bullish Bias Breaking Down?
While we remained above 1.08 my USD/CAD
bias was for a resumption of the weekly bullish trend. However recent
price action developments bring this into question and for a
newdigital, 2014.06.19 20:05
USD/CAD is trading at 1.0820, down -0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0844 and low at 1.0806.USD/CAD
is pressing lower again through the consolidation and congestion in the
30 pip range from the handle. Looking ahead, Canada's CPI for May is
released along with April retail sales. RBS strategists explained that
after base effects helped boost headline inflation in April, they see
the risks favouring a slightly weaker than consensus result in May.
“Either way, the June statement indicated the Bank of Canada appears
fully committed to looking through near-term inflation pressure amid a
still tepid growth outlook. The sales impact of the late Easter may lead
to a boost in April Canadian retail sales. While USD/CAD has tested the
2014 lows, short term interest rate support has moved in favour of the
USD over the past few weeks. (see chart in attached pdf) The positive
carry environment, and still negative CAD positioning, may keep the CAD
supported but we are cautious on chasing CAD gains further from current
levels, particularly as rate differentials have moved against it. We are
neutral on at current levels, with a medium-term bias to sell CAD”.USD/CAD LevelsWith
spot trading at 1.0820, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.0830
(Hourly 20 EMA), 1.0833 (Yesterday's Low), 1.0835 (Daily Open), (Monthly
Low) and 1.0835 (Weekly Low). Support below can be found at 1.0814
(Weekly Classic S1), 1.0813 (Daily Classic S1), 1.0806 (Daily Low),
1.0790 (Daily Classic S2) and 1.0777 (Daily 200 SMA).