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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2014, 15.06 - 22.06: Ranging Bearish

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.15 09:55 

D1 price was on bearish stopped by 1.0841 support level.

H4 price is on primary bearish with secondary flat stopped by same support level: 1.0841.

W1 price is on ranging correction within primary bullish and with 1.0814 as nearest support level

If D1 price will break 1.0841 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.

  • Recommendation for short: watch D1 price for breaking 1.0841 support level on close bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: n/a
  • Trading Summary: ranging

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDCAD price movement for this coming week)

2014-06-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]

2014-06-17 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Foreign Direct Investment]

2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]

2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

2014-06-18 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Wholesale Sales]

2014-06-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

2014-06-19 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

2014-06-20 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - CPI]

2014-06-20 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Retail Sales]

Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDCAD price movement

Resistance
Support
1.0869
1.0847
1.0959
1.0841
1.1052
1.0814



SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging


Intraday Chart

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.15 17:33  

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newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:18

Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The dollar ended Friday’s session flat against a basket of other major currencies as escalating tensions in Iraq underpinned safe haven demand for the greenback, offsetting an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence.

Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, after insurgents took control of the Iraqi cities Mosul and Tikrit, fuelling fears over the impact of reduced oil supply on global growth.

The escalating violence in Iraq overshadowed a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 80.75 late Friday.

The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.28% to 101.99 late Friday. For the week, the pair was down 0.49%.

The euro edged lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD dipping 0.08% to 1.3541 at the close, not far from the four-month trough of 1.3502 reached on June 5. For the week, the pair lost 0.38%.

The single currency has weakened broadly since the European Central Bank cut rates to record lows earlier this month, in order to combat the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area.

Elsewhere, the pound ended the week close to five year highs against the dollar after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that U.K. interest rates could rise sooner than investors expect.

GBP/USD was up 0.24% to 1.6968 late Friday, after rising as high as 1.6990 earlier in the session, the most in almost five years. The pair ended the week with gains of 0.99%.

Sterling rose to one-and-a-half year highs against the broadly weaker euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.30% to 0.7981 late Friday, extending the week’s losses to 1.32%.

The New Zealand dollar turned lower on Friday amid increased safe haven demand, with NZD/USD slipping 0.26% to 0.8663.

The pair rallied to a one month high of 0.8699 Thursday after the Reserve Bank raised its benchmark interest rate to a five-year high of 3.25% and indicated that borrowing costs would rise again as strong economic growth fuels inflation pressures.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Monday’s preliminary report on euro zone inflation will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 16
  • The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
  • Canada is to publish a report on foreign securities purchases.
  • The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.
Tuesday, June 17
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
  • Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation, while the U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.
  • The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
  • Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.
Wednesday, June 18
  • New Zealand is to release data on the current account, while Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.
  • The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Japan is also to release data on the trade balance.
  • The BoE is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.
  • The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
  • Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
  • Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Thursday, June 19
  • New Zealand is to publish data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
  • The Swiss National Bank is to announce its libor rate. The bank is also to publish its quarterly monetary policy assessment and hold a press conference.
  • The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
  • The Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers are to hold meeting in Brussels.
  • The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, June 20
  • Germany is to publish data on producer price inflation.
  • BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.
  • The euro zone is to release data on the current account, while the euro area’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council is to hold meetings in Brussels.
  • The U.K. is to release data on public sector net borrowing.
  • Canada is to round up the week with data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.16 08:11  

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newdigital, 2014.06.13 21:41

Forex Fundamentals Weekly Outlook June 16-20

The dollar and the euro were on the back foot in the past week. The focus is now on the Fed decision and the UK inflation data. In addition, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and inflation figures will be of interest. Here are the main events on our FX calendar. Here is an outlook on the market-movers for the coming week. A jump in US job openings underpinned the US dollar. While this figure is lagging, it closely watched by the Federal Reserve. However, other figures from the US, such as retail sales, were mediocre. The UK enjoyed encouraging employment figures that lift the prospects of an early rate hike, and Carney indeed explicitly said that a rate hike make come sooner than later, sending the pound jumping up.. In Europe, the lower bond yields and the implementation of the negative deposit rate weighed on the common currency. Another currency that stood out is the kiwi that leaped up: the RBNZ hiked the rate and did not signal a pause.

  1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Annual inflation in the UK edged up to 1.8% in April, rising for the first time in almost a year, following 1.6% in the previous month. The main cause for this rise was higher travel and energy prices. Analysts expected a smaller climb of 0.1%. However rising inflation ignites new fears that the standard of living will decline due to falling wages. CPI is expected to slide to an annual level of 1.7%. The RPI is predicted to remain at 2.5% and Core CPI to slide to 1.7%.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German economic sentiment plunged in May by 10.1 points, to 33.1, hitting the lowest level since January 2013. The Ukraine crisis was the probable cause for this fall starting effect economic activity, especially in the eastern part of the country. Economists expected a 2.2 points fall to 41.3 in May. A rise to 35.2 points is expected now. The all-European figure is also expected to advance to 59.6 points.
  3. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. building permits soared in April to their highest level in nearly six years, reaching 1.08 million-unit pace. The sharp rise offered hope that the recent sluggishness in the housing market may be over. The 90,000 rise surprised analysts expecting a 1.01 million-unit pace. A similar level of 1.07 million is estimated now. Housing starts carry expectations of dropping from 1.07 to 1.04 million.
  4. US inflation data: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in April after posting a 0.2% gain in March, as food prices edged up for a fourth consecutive month and the cost of gasoline climbed. The reading was consistent with analysts’ forecast. In the 12 months through April, CPI gained 2.0% after a 1.5% rise in March, the biggest increase since July last year. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% above predictions of a 0.1% rise and following a 0.2% rate in the previous month. US inflation remains in Goldilocks territory. Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to rise 0.2% m/m.
  5. UK MPC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 8:30. After Carney lifted the pound with his rate hike comment, it will be very interesting to see if one or more members already voted for a rate hike in June’s no-change decision. Up to now, Carney enjoyed unanimous support behind his policy, and that is what is expected now. A non-unanimous vote could push the pound even higher.
  6. US rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Fed is expected to taper bond buys for the 5th time, to $35 billion / month. Recent data from the US has been positive and showed growth in jobs as well as in other sectors after the terrible first quarter. Markets will likely focus on the fresh economic projections, especially those concerning the potential date of a rate hike. The previous decision was not accompanied by a press conference, and it passed quite quietly. This was not the case in March, when Yellen said that a rate hike could come within 6 months of the end of QE and stirred markets. Was it a slip in her first appearance or did she sow the initial seed for a rate hike in early 2015? Every word she says now will be scrutinized and could cause a significant market stir. Given the recent improvement, we can expect a more hawkish approach. If the hints are subtle, a full response to the FOMC statement and the press conference can only be expected in the following sessions. Contrary to April’s decision, this one could have a long lasting impact on markets.
  7. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. Economic growth in New Zealand continued to grow in the last quarter of 2013, rising 0.9% from a 1.2% expansion in the third quarter. Analysts expected a higher rise of 1.0% in the 4th quarter. Manufacturing and wholesale trade were the main contributors to the rise in output. On an annualized rate, GDP expanded 3.1% in the December quarter, in line with forecasts. A growth rate of 1.2% is expected now.
  8. Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. The Swiss National Bank kept rates unchanged at 0.25% but was more optimistic on future growth prospects. The bank reiterated its commitment to defend the 1.20 per euro limit with unlimited interventions and stood ready to take further measures if necessary. The SNB said economic activity in Switzerland should improve from the first quarter of 2014 confirming a 2.0% growth this year.
  9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Recent trends in jobless claims have been positive, with a gradual convergence towards the 300K level. While the drops have never been steady, the US job market seems to be going in the right direction. A figure of under 300K will certainly be dollar positive, but after the recent rise to 317K, a similar value of 316K is predicted.
  10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. US manufacturing barometer in the Philadelphia area declined less than expected in April, reaching 15.4 after rising to 16.6 points in March. The Philly Fed’s general conditions index reaching 15.4 in May was nearly as strong as April’s 16.6. This report, together with Empire State, reaffirms the strength of the US manufacturing sector. A small slide to 14.3 points is on the cards.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.16 14:58  

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newdigital, 2014.06.16 14:57

2014-06-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]

  • past data is -1.41B
  • forecast data is 4.27B
  • actual data is 10.13B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases] = total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities

==========

Canadian foreign securities purchases increase more-than-expected

Foreign investors’ acquisitions of Canadian securities increased more-than-expected in April, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, Statistics Canada said that foreign investment increased by a seasonally adjusted C$10.13 billion in April, above expectations for purchases of C$4.27 billion.

Foreign investors sold C$1.41 billion worth of Canadian securities in March.

At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to C$2.5 billion.

Following the release of the data, the Canadian dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart, with USD/CAD rising 0.15% to trade at 1.0873.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.16

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 11 pips price movement by CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.17 07:22  

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newdigital, 2014.06.14 18:30

USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, as you can see on the chart. This market seems to find plenty of support near the 1.08 handle, so we feel that the market is supportive enough that we can continue to buy on dips and believe that the market will ultimately be bullish enough to continue on to the 1.12 level or so. With this, we also believe that the uptrend line that we have seen for some time now is going to continue to push the market higher as well. Pullbacks should be thought of as value.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.17 18:18  

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newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:21

USD/CAD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The Canadian dollar was flat against the U.S. dollar on Friday despite higher oil prices as a result of a Sunni insurgency in Iraq.

USD/CAD was at 1.0855 late Friday, almost unchanged for the day. For the week, the pair was down 0.45%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0821, the low of May 30 and resistance at 1.0905, Wednesday’s high.

Brent oil prices rose to a nine-month high on Friday amid concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq, fueling fears over the impact of reduced output from one of the world's largest crude oil producers.

Brent crude hit a session high of $114.07 a barrel and U.S. crude oil went as high as $107.68 during the session.

While higher oil prices normally boost the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, the flight to safety arising from the conflict and fears over the impact on global economic growth offset that.

The greenback showed little reaction after data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The report came a day after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but the previous month was revised higher.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain. However, retail sales for April were revised up to a 0.5% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 80.75 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Friday’s Canadian data on inflation and retail sales will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 16
  • Canada is to publish a report on foreign securities purchases.
  • The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.
Tuesday, June 17
  • The U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.
Wednesday, June 18
  • Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
  • Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Thursday, June 19
  • The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, June 20
  • Canada is to round up the week with data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.18 08:56  

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newdigital, 2014.06.18 08:56

USD/CAD Forecast June 18, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair rose during the course of the session on Tuesday, but found enough in the way of resistance above to pull back down and form a shooting star. The shooting star signifies that the market will probably continue to fall from here, but there is a significant amount of support below at the 1.08 handle. It is not until we clear that area to the downside that we can start selling, aiming for the 1.06 handle. On the other hand, if we break the top of the range from the Monday session, we would be confident enough to start buying again and aim for the 1.0950 level.







Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.18 20:30  

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newdigital, 2014.06.18 14:29

Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and Federal Funds Rate (based on dailyfx article)

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to Reduce QE by Another $10B.
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen to Hold Press Conference at 18:30 GMT.

Despite expectations for another $10B reduction in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) asset-purchase program, the central bank’s updated forecasts (growth, inflation & interest rate) may have a greater impact in driving the U.S. dollar as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, there’s limited scope of seeing a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to normalize monetary policy, and the interest rate decision may spur a bearish dollar reaction (bullish EUR/USD) should we get more of the same from the central bank.

Sticky inflation paired with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may encourage the FOMC to soft its dovish tone for monetary policy, and the fresh developments coming out of the central bank may generate a bullish outlook for the dollar should we see a greater dissent within the committee.

However, the slowdown in the housing market along with the dismal 1Q GDP reading may push the FOMC to lower its fundamental projections for the U.S. economy, and the updated forecasts may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback should the calculations drag on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Cuts Another $10B & Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short EUR/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Place stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Fed Continues to Highlight Dovish Tone for Monetary Policy
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision
EUR/USD Daily



  • Sideways Price Action in Focus as EUR/USD Holds Monthly Range
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3670 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0% retracement to 1.3500 Pivot
Impact that the FOMC Interest Rate Decision has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change
1 Hour post event
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
APR 2014 04/30/2014 18:00 GMT 0.25% 0.25% +9 +2

2013-09-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time| [USD - Federal Funds Rate] :



As expected, the Federal Reserve cut its asset purchase program by $10B in April leaving the total monthly purchase total to $45B per month, but pledged to keep rates on stay on hold for a considerable period of time even after its quantitative-easing (QE) program comes to an end. The relatively dovish tone for monetary policy dragged on the greenback, with the EUR/USD spiking to a high of 1.3875, but the market reaction was short-loved as the pair ended the day at 1.3864.

USDCAD M5 : 29 pips range price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.19 12:48  

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newdigital, 2014.06.19 12:46

USD/CAD Awaiting Reversal Signal Near Range-Bottom (based on dailyfx article)

  • USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Pending Long
  • Range between 1.0810 and 1.0960 remains in play
  • Gravestone Doji fails to find follow-through

As noted in yesterday’s candlesticks report the June FOMC Meeting offered the potential for significant US Dollar volatility. The resulting price action has negated a Gravestone Doji on the daily for USD/CADwhich had suggested at a potential shift in sentiment for the pair. With bullish reversal signals now absent, doubt is cast over the possibility of a bounce. At the same time the range-bottom may offer some support to the Loonie and leave limited scope for further declines.

USD/CAD: Awaiting Bullish Signal Near Range-Bottom




An examination of the four hour chart similarly reveals a notable absence of bullish signals, despite the pair pushing on noteworthy support at 108.15.



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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.19 14:41  

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newdigital, 2014.06.19 14:40

USD/CAD: Is Bullish Bias Breaking Down?

While we remained above 1.08 my USD/CAD bias was for a resumption of the weekly bullish trend. However recent price action developments bring this into question and for a readjustment.




Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2014.06.19 20:05  

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newdigital, 2014.06.19 20:05

USD/CAD congestion thinning out




USD/CAD is trading at 1.0820, down -0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0844 and low at 1.0806.

USD/CAD is pressing lower again through the consolidation and congestion in the 30 pip range from the handle. Looking ahead, Canada's CPI for May is released along with April retail sales. RBS strategists explained that after base effects helped boost headline inflation in April, they see the risks favouring a slightly weaker than consensus result in May. “Either way, the June statement indicated the Bank of Canada appears fully committed to looking through near-term inflation pressure amid a still tepid growth outlook. The sales impact of the late Easter may lead to a boost in April Canadian retail sales. While USD/CAD has tested the 2014 lows, short term interest rate support has moved in favour of the USD over the past few weeks. (see chart in attached pdf) The positive carry environment, and still negative CAD positioning, may keep the CAD supported but we are cautious on chasing CAD gains further from current levels, particularly as rate differentials have moved against it. We are neutral on at current levels, with a medium-term bias to sell CAD”.

USD/CAD Levels

With spot trading at 1.0820, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.0830 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.0833 (Yesterday's Low), 1.0835 (Daily Open), (Monthly Low) and 1.0835 (Weekly Low). Support below can be found at 1.0814 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.0813 (Daily Classic S1), 1.0806 (Daily Low), 1.0790 (Daily Classic S2) and 1.0777 (Daily 200 SMA).


12
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