D1 price is on bearish market condition trying to break 1.0825 support on close
bar for the bearish to be continuing.
H4 price is on bearish for ranging between 1.0821 support and 1.0867 resistance levels.
D1 price will break 1.0825 support so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDCAD price movement for this coming week)
2014-06-02 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Factory Orders]
2014-06-04 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-06-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2014-06-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Trade Balance]
2014-06-04 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-04 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Overnight Rate]
2014-06-05 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Building Permits]
2014-06-05 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Ivey PMI]
2014-06-06 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Employment Change]
2014-06-06 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDCAD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.05.31 16:29
newdigital, 2014.06.01 10:53
newdigital, 2014.06.03 17:16
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
U.S. Factory Orders Rise 0.7% In April, More Than Expected
New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose by more than expected in
the month of April, according to a report released by the Commerce
Department on Tuesday.
The report said factory orders increased by 0.7 percent in April after jumping by an upwardly revised 1.5 percent in March.
had expected orders to climb by about 0.5 percent compared to the 1.1
percent increase that had been reported for the previous month.
Commerce Department said factory orders increased for the third
consecutive month, rising to their highest level since the series was
first published on a NAICS basis in 1992.
The continued growth was
partly due to an increase in orders for transportation equipment, which
rose by 1.4 percent in April after surging up by 5.2 percent in March.
the increase in orders for transportation equipment, factory orders
still rose by 0.5 percent in April compared to a 0.8 percent increase in
the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report showed that factory orders edged down by 0.1 percent in April when excluding a jump in orders for defense.
Commerce Department said orders for durable goods increased by a
revised 0.6 percent in April compared to the 0.8 percent growth that was
reported last Tuesday. Orders for non-durable goods rose by 0.7
The report also showed that shipment of manufactured
goods edged up by 0.3 percent in April, while inventories of
manufactured goods rose by 0.4 percent.
With inventories and
shipments both rising, the inventories-to-shipments ratio was unchanged
compared to the previous month at 1.30.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.03
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
USDCAD M5 : 7 pips price movement by USD - Factory Orders news event
newdigital, 2014.06.04 14:55
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers
Canada posts trade deficit in April on record high imports
Canada posted an unexpected trade deficit of
C$638 million ($585 million) in April from an upwardly revised C$766
million surplus in March, Statistics Canada data indicated on Wednesday.
climbed 1.4 percent to a record high $43.46 billion, as volumes rose
1.9 percent and prices declined 0.4 percent. Exports decreased 1.8
percent to $42.83 billion as volumes and prices fell by 0.8 percent and
1.0 percent, respectively. Following are the seasonally adjusted figures
in billions of Canadian dollars: Merchandise trade April
March(rev) change pct March(prev) Balance -0.638
+0.766 n.a +0.079 Exports 42.825
43.625 -1.8 42.703 Imports 43.463
42.860 +1.4 42.623
USDCAD M5 : 21 pips range price movement by CAD - Trade Balance news event :
newdigital, 2014.06.04 16:30
[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future
Bank of Canada leaves key interest rate unchanged
The Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at one per cent today.
An unchanged rate means governor Stephen Poloz does not believe the
Canadian economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates,
despite lingering concern about high consumer debt and rising housing
Poloz is not scheduled to discuss his decision publicly on Wednesday,
but the analysis accompanying his announcement notes that inflation is
approaching the two per cent target rate earlier than anticipated.
The loonie was down 0.29 of a cent to 91.37 cents US as the central bank signalled it is in no rush to raise rates.
The benchmark overnight rate is used by retail banks to set rates for
savers and borrowers, though the range of consumer rates may vary
depending on bond yields.
The rate has been a one per cent for more than three years, dating
back to September 2010, the longest stretch of level rates in Canadian
Poloz is dealing with a mixed bag of economic results, including
exports that have not yet picked up as quickly as anticipated and an
unemployment rate of 7 per cent, with evidence of many long-term
In March, Poloz reiterated a growth rate of 2.5 per cent this year for the Canadian economy, but told a business audience that slow growth is the new norm for developed economies.
Last month it noted only 1.2 per cent GDP growth rate in the first
quarter, but Poloz's note this morning attributed that to "severe
weather and supply constraints."
USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.04
USDCAD M5 : 26 pips price movement by CAD - Overnight Rate news event
newdigital, 2014.06.04 20:14
USD/CAD rises to 1-month highs, BoC holds
The U.S. dollar rose to one-month highs against its Canadian counterpart
on Wednesday, after the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged,
while downbeat Canadian trade data weighed on demand for the loonie.
hit 1.0951 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's highest since May 6;
the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0947, gaining 0.36%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.0891, Tuesday's low and resistance at 1.0989, the high of May 5.
a widely expected move, the BoC held its benchmark interest rate at 1%,
saying that "the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the
current stance of monetary policy is appropriate."
Wednesday, official data showed that Canada's trade balance swung into a
deficit of C$0.64 billion in April, from a surplus of C$0.77 billion in
March whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated surplus
of C$0.08 billion.
Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to C$0.10 billion in April.
the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing
index rose to a nine-month high of 56.3 in May, from a reading of 55.2
the previous month, compared to expectations for a rise to 55.5.
data came after payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private
employment rose by 179,000 in May, below expectations for an increase of
210,000. April's figure was revised down to a gain of 215,000 from a
previously reported increase of 220,000.
A separate report showed
that U.S. trade deficit widened to $47.24 billion in April, from $44.18
billion in March whose figure was revised from a previously estimated
deficit of $40.40 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to
widen to $40.80billion in April.
The loonie was lower against the euro, with EUR/CAD adding 0.25% to 1.4902.
Wednesday, Markit said Germany's services purchasing managers' index
fell to 56.0 in May from 56.4 in April, confounding expectations for the
index to remain unchanged.
Separately, Spain's services PMI fell
to 55.7 in May, from a reading of 56.5 the previous month, while Italy's
services PMI rose to 51.6 last month, from 51.1 in April.
newdigital, 2014.06.06 12:37
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 215K in
May, but the data print may spur a mixed reaction in the EUR/USD as the
jobless rate is expected to widen to an annualized 6.4% from 6.3% the
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, it seems as though
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will stick to its current
approach at the June 18 meeting, and we would need to see a marked
pickup in NFPs to see a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook at
Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
The ongoing improvement in business sentiment along with the resilience
in private sector consumption may encourage U.S. firms to further expand
their labor force, and a positive development may spur a bullish
reaction in the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to
move away from its highly accommodative policy stance.
Nevertheless, the rise in planned job-cuts paired with the persistent
slack in the real economy may ultimately generate a disappointing labor
report, and a dismal print may heighten the bearish sentiment
surrounding the reserve currency as it drags on interest rate
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Climb 215K+; Unemployment Holds Steady
EURUSD M5 : 48 pips by USD - NFP news event
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 288K in April following a revised 203K
rise the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly slipped to an
annualized 6.3% from 6.7% as discouraged workers continued to leave the
labor force. The better-than-expected NFP print pushed the EUR/USD back
down towards the 1.3800 handle, but the market reaction was certainly
short-lived as the pair ended the day at 1.3871.
USDCAD, M5, 2014.06.06
USDCAD M5 : 39 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event