D1 price reversed from primary bullish to bearish market condition - price broke Ichimoku cloud in the end of last week moving along Sinkou Span B line.
H4 price was on triangle pattern breakdown with primary bearish and stopped near 1.3685 support level.
D1 price will break 1.3648 support so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-05-19 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Deutsche Bundesbank (Buba) President Weidmann Speech]
2014-05-20 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German PPI]
2014-05-20 16:30 GMT (or 18:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Plosser Speech]
2014-05-20 17:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speech]
2014-05-21 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Current Account]
2014-05-21 15:30 GMT (or 17:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-05-21 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
2014-05-22 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2014-05-22 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French PMI]
2014-05-22 07:30 GMT (or 09:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German PMI]
2014-05-22 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - PMI]
2014-05-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
2014-05-23 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German GDP]
2014-05-23 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
2014-05-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
SUMMARY : reversal
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.05.17 11:16
newdigital, 2014.05.19 09:24
Speech at a Symposium organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, in Frankfurt
BUBA’s Weidmann says ECB will closely monitor FX moves when weighing policy decisions
Here we go, right on cue
EURUSD a little higher at 1.3719 on the view that a weaker euro could
prompt adverse impact so they will be careful on driving it lower.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.05.19
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 14 pips price movement by EUR - German Buba President Weidmann Speech news event
newdigital, 2014.05.17 18:14
newdigital, 2014.05.20 08:17
Euro Rallies against the Dollar, Ending Two-Week Run of Losses (based on Forexminute article)
The euro rose against the dollar, ending two weeks of losses as
investors awaited market data that points towards monetary easing in the
The euro advanced 0.1 percent to $1.3702, ending a run of losses of more
than 1 percent over the last two weeks. The shared currency advanced to
138.99 yen before edging lower to 138.77 yen, a three-month low.
The euro has been hurt by speculation that the European Central Bank may
ease its monetary policy when it meets in June. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission’s data that was released last Friday indicated that
there were 2,175 net short contracts on the common currency in the week
ended May 13, down from net long positions of 32,551 a week earlier,
"There seems to be so many reasons to short the euro," said Bart
Wakabayashi, a Tokyo-based head of forex at State Street Global Markets.
"The ECB seems to be the one [central bank] under the most pressure to
act the soonest."
The ECB is expected to roll out a raft of measures such as a reduction
in all interest rates and policy that seeks to increase lending to
small and mid-sized enterprises. Hence traders will be keenly
monitoring purchasing managers’ surveys of the euro zone that will be
released this week.
"Given the low euro zone inflation, interest will be on the
input/output price subcomponents of the PMIs," analysts at Commonwealth
Bank told clients.
The dollar index fell to 80.017, down from last week’s peak of 80.338
that it touched on Thursday. The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 101.44 yen,
which is close to 101.31 yen, a two-month low that it also hit last
newdigital, 2014.05.18 17:19
newdigital, 2014.05.21 12:54
EUR/USD still immune for stock market volatility
On Tuesday, the eco calendar was
again thin. In Europe, equities were unable to give trading on other
markets a clear guidance. The euro remained slightly under pressure as
were peripheral bonds. However, the key 1.3643 support stayed well out
of reach. USD/JPY was initially slightly higher off Monday’s low but the
a new selling wave of US equities after the close in Europe pushed the
pair again lower in the 101.00 big figure. EUR/JPY tested again the key
138.55/70 support but a break didn’t succeed.
This morning, Asian
equities are mostly in the red except for China. However, the losses
are contained compared to the correction in the US. Yesterday evening,
Fed hawk Plosser repeated its assessment that rates may be raised sooner
rather than later. His comments might have caused some nervousness on
the US equity markets. However, they didn’t help the dollar. On the
contrary, USD/JPY is creeping back to this week’s low at 101.10. EUR/USD
is again not at all affected, not by the Fed comments and not by the
correction on the US and Asian equity markets. The BoJ as expected kept
its policy unchanged. There is no indication that the bank is preparing
for additional stimulus anytime soon. An optimistic tone from BOJ might
keep the yen well bid.
Later today, there are
again few eco data in the US and in Europe. Consumer confidence from the
European commission is expected to improve slightly from -8.6 to -8.3.
This report probably won’t be a game changer for EUR/USD trading. After a
chorus of ECB speakers recently, the focus turns to the Fed today. A
long series of Fed governors will speak and the Fed will publish the
minutes from the April meeting. Fed’s Yellen already elaborated on the
Fed decision in an appearance before the JEC of Congress earlier this
month. Even so, it will be interesting to see the thinking within the
Fed on the next steps to scale back policy stimulation. Indications that
this next step is coming closer might be slightly positive for the
dollar. Even so, currency trading will probably again be driven by technical considerations and by global sentiment on risk.
How will European markets react to the correction in the US yesterday?
Will intra-EMU spreads continue to widen? If so, it might at least
cement the topside of EUR/USD. The picture in the yen cross rates
remains very interesting, too. EUR/JPY is struggling to hold above a
first resistance (138.55/70 area). USD/JPY is testing the key
101.20/100.75 support. The process is going very slowly, but a break
below these levels would be highly significant and may also be a
negative for the euro. For now this is nothing more than an hypothesis.
After the May ECB press conference, we reinstalled a sell-on-upticks bias for EUR/USD ahead of the June ECB meeting.
Of course, the reasons for recent dollar weakness haven’t disappeared
all at once. So, the downside correction in EUR/USD will probably
develop in a gradual way. A first support at 1.3673/43 was tested last
week but no sustained break occurred. The next high profile level is the
1.3477 April correction low. We maintain a sell-on-upticks approach. A
break above 1.40 would suggest that the markets doubt the credibility of
the ECB commitment and thus warrants stop loss protection.
newdigital, 2014.05.22 09:57
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
EUR French PMI = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing/services industry
French Private Sector Slips Into Contraction In May
The French private sector contracted for the first time in three
months in May, flash survey data from Markit Economics showed Thursday.
flash composite output index fell to 49.3 in May from 50.6 in April.
The score below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.
Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing declined more-than-expected
to a 4-month low of 49.3 in May from 51.2 in April. The expected
reading was 51.
Likewise, the services PMI dropped to 49.2 from 50.4 a month ago. Economists had forecast the score to remain at 50.4.
Lower output was recorded across the service and manufacturing sectors. New business received by French private sector firms decreased for the second month running in May.
in the French private sector fell for a seventh consecutive month and
the rate of job shedding was the sharpest since February.
price trends were signaled in May. Input price inflation across the
French private sector accelerated to a four-month high, driven by a
sharper increase in service providers' costs.
On the other hand,
private sector output prices continued to fall, with the rate of decline
accelerating to the sharpest in ten months.
"With GDP having
stagnated in Q1, the PMI data so far suggest another disappointing
performance in the second quarter," said Jack Kennedy, senior economist
at Markit said.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.05.22
EURUSD M5 : 18 pips price movement by EUR - French PMI news event
newdigital, 2014.05.22 12:55
EUR - German PMI = level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
German manufacturing PMI falls to 6-month low of 52.9 in May
Manufacturing activity in Germany expanded at
the slowest rate in six months in May, dampening optimism over the
health of the euro zone's largest economy, preliminary data showed
In a report, market research group Markit said that its
preliminary German manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to
a seasonally adjusted 52.9 this month, down from a final reading of
54.1 in April. Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 54.0
Meanwhile, the preliminary services purchasing managers' index
improved to a 35-month high of 56.4 this month, up from a reading
of 54.7 in April. Analysts had expected the index to ease down to
54.5 in May.
A reading above 50.0 on the index indicates industry expansion,
below indicates contraction.
Commenting on the report, Ollver Kolodselke, Economist at Markit
said, "Survey data for the second quarter so far suggest that we
should expect another period of solid growth of GDP."
Following the release of the data, the euro trimmed losses
against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD shedding 0.07% to trade at
1.3676, compared to 1.3665 ahead of the data.
Meanwhile, European stock markets were higher after the open.
Germany's DAX picked up 0.3%, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2%, France's
CAC 40 eased up 0.1%, while London's FTSE 100 added 0.3%.
newdigital, 2014.05.22 16:03
Price & Time: Approaching Key Levels, But EUR/USD Remains Vulnerable
Since reversing from the important cycle turn window that we highlighted
at the start of the month the euro has come under steady downside
pressure. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched its lowest level in over three
months before rebounding off the 3rd square root relationship of the
year’s high at 1.3640 - which is also just above the widely watched
200-day moving average. Was this an important low in the euro? We don’t
think so. With the next important turn window eyed around the end of the
month/first week of June we suspect general weakness will persist at
least until then before a meaningful recovery in the euro is seen
(though some minor strength looks possible early next week). The bottom
of the1-year standard deviation channel coincides with the 4th square
root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3550 and this still looks
like a reasonable downside objective. Unexpected aggressive strength
over 1.3820 would suggest that the euro has bottomed ahead of schedule.
Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2014
newdigital, 2014.05.22 19:44
The Three Drives Pattern - Harmonic Ratios and Explanation
The charts were made by using free HWAFM tool for Metatrader 5