Losing & Profitable EA

[7074763]

Hi everyone,

Is there an EA losing 9 orders out of 10, but stills profitable on a monthly basis ?

I'm sure Vladimir Karputov has an accurate idea about this. 

Any answers are welcome, so let's discuss !

Cheers

[Maxim Kuznetsov]

7074763:

Hi everyone,

Is there an EA losing 9 orders out of 10, but stills profitable on a monthly basis ?

I'm sure Vladimir Karputov has an accurate idea about this. 

Any answers are welcome, so let's discuss !

Cheers

While you are using a demo account, this may well be :-)

also if a very small stop loss is used, or it is a "news" strategy with a fast trail

The variants using maringale should not be discussed, for them it is normal. But deadly for a deposit :-)

[Anthony Garot]

7074763:

Is there an EA losing 9 orders out of 10, but stills profitable on a monthly basis ?

I have seen an EA with a 15% win rate that was profitable over a duration of three to four years with a really nice equity curve and low drawdown. Then market conditions changed and the EA was worthless.

The key was small stop losses (as mentioned above).

So, it's possible.

[Nitin Raj]

7074763:

Hi everyone,

Is there an EA losing 9 orders out of 10, but stills profitable on a monthly basis ?

I'm sure Vladimir Karputov has an accurate idea about this. 

Any answers are welcome, so let's discuss !

Cheers

Win rate in trading is highly over-rated. The only thing matter is how much you make in the winning trades and how much you lose in losing trades. 

Decent returns can be accumulated with a winning percentage of only 30 to 40%. If you can achieve a winning rate between 50 to 60%(in the long run) with a profit factor of around 1.50, it will be a great success. 

However, IMO 15% winning rate sounds too low for having a positive expectancy in the long run. 

[Stevf]

Anthony Garot:

I have seen an EA with a 15% win rate that was profitable over a duration of three to four years with a really nice equity curve and low drawdown. Then market conditions changed and the EA was worthless.

The key was small stop losses (as mentioned above).

So, it's possible.

What does market conditions changed mean!! I'd like to know more about this sentence 

Im learning about Elliot waves that works well since 2000, not an EA but market conditions never changed on that theory, if it was tweaked by a couple of indicators then it will work just fine no matter when

[Stevf]

7074763:

Hi everyone,

Is there an EA losing 9 orders out of 10, but stills profitable on a monthly basis ?

I'm sure Vladimir Karputov has an accurate idea about this. 

Any answers are welcome, so let's discuss !

Cheers

This one works on a 12 months on 1m chart, hedging, martingale, indicators and whats not, tested on 2016-2017 and the screwed up second curve "which in my point of view is more realistic" is from 2012-2017

This is non commercial EA which means you won't find it go up linear on any time-frame or any testing period, it is what a regular trader can do in different yeas different market conditions .. wins + losses and eventually its in positive territory 

[robert.miner]

Hi there, 9 order with loss can be handled with 1 order with profit?

[Anthony Garot]

Stevf:

What does market conditions changed mean!! I'd like to know more about this sentence 

Look up "trading regime changes" or "trading regime shifts."

[Stevf]

Anthony Garot:

Look up "trading regime changes" or "trading regime shifts."

Thanks, im reading this topic now 

http://www.automatedtrader.net/articles/strategies/157185/regime-changes-in-automated-trading

It is talking about changing shifts from hikes to easing interest rates decisions by the FOMC

I would think you are talking about now as a "period" that will render the the EA non-profitable but once changes happen again in the market then the EA should work fine