Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2014 - page 6

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.05.24 17:00

NZD/USD forecast for the week of May 26, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell during the bulk of the week, but seemed to stall right around the 0.8550 level. There is a significant amount of support below at the 0.85 handle as well, so quite frankly we don’t really see an opportunity to sell this market. That being the case, we are waiting for some type of supportive candle just below current levels in order to start buying again. Ultimately, watch risk appetite in general as it typically will push the New Zealand dollar around in a positive correlation.




 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.05.24 17:04

GBP/USD forecast for the week of May 26, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, forming a shooting star right after forming a hammer. We now have a pattern where we have 2 shooting stars and one hammer recently, and as a result we feel that this market is probably going to struggle to get above the 1.70 level, but it will do so eventually. A break above that level census market much higher probably going to the 1.75 handle given enough time. A pullback to the 1.65 level is rather supportive, and as a result we feel that would probably be a buying opportunity as well.




 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.05.24 17:06

EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 26, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week, busting back above the 1.37 handle. However, we found enough resistance above to push the market back down and form a negative candle. It now appears that we are heading towards the 1.35 handle where we would test significant support again. That being the case, we are bullish of this market and fully anticipate supportive candles to be reason enough to start buying on short-term charts with a longer-term bias. Ultimately, if we get below the 1.35 level, things get really ugly.




 

Stochastic Momentum Index Indicator

KEY POINTS REGARDING THE STOCHASTIC MOMENTUM INDEX

  • Introduced by William Blau in 1993 as a faster, less erratic version of the traditional stochastic oscillator
  • Evaluates the Current Close relative to the midpoint of the Recent High/Low Range instead of simply the High and Low, and graphs this value along with a moving average (Stochastic %D)
  • Helps predict turning points and duration of current price move
  • Best used alongside a way to predict trendiness of market (like Chande Momentum Oscillator or R-Squared); like other oscillators, the indicator calculates the direction of an emerging trend, but does not generate reliable signals in a trending market

CALCULATING THE STOCHASTIC MOMENTUM INDEX

First select a period N; then, determine the center (C) of the range during this period by adding the highest high and lowest low within the period and dividing the sum by 2
C = (HMAX + LMIN)/2

Now subtract this C from the current close (CC) to get D, the "distance":
D = CC--C

The indicator smooths the distance value twice (DS1 and DS2) with a 3-period EMA:
DS1 = EMA(3)(D)
DS2 = EMA(3)(DS1)

Now smooth the difference between HMAX and LMIN twice (DHL and DHL2), using the earlier EMA, and dividing the second result by 2:
DHL = EMA(3)(HMAX -- LMIN)
DHL2 = EMA(3)(DHL)/2

We can now calculate today's SMI value:
SMI = 100 * (DS2/DHL2)

READING THE STOCHASTIC MOMENTUM INDEX

An extreme position (approaching -100 or +100) implies the likelihood of a reversal
Common trading level: Overbought (bullish) above +40 / Oversold (bearish) below -40

Basic turning point signals:

  • Buy when the indicator rises above -40 from below
  • Sell when the indicator moves below +40 from above
  • Cross-over 1: SMI passes moving average from below = Buy
  • Cross-over 2: SMI falls below moving average from above = Sell
  • (Cross-overs that occur between -15 and +15 are often unreliable)

Divergences are uncommon, but can be used to check signals or produce strong signals: Buy for bullish divergence, sell for bearish

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting to Read January 2014

newdigital, 2014.01.26 21:46

Momentum, Direction, Divergence : William Blau




In this latest volume, technical expert Bill Blau shows you how momentum, direction, and divergence form the basis of most technical indicators and how they can work for you to provide a considerable competitive advantage. Clearly, concisely, and with a minimum of complex mathematics, Blau shows you how to understand and apply them. Integrating the latest financial insights with more than 75 easy-to-follow graphics, Blau describes the uses and limitations of many of today's most notable technical indicators. He then demonstrates a variety of ways in which the principles of momentum, direction, and divergence can be used to create a versatile new set of technical indicators or to improve the effectiveness of the most widely used traditional indicators.

Focusing on the groundbreaking double smoothing concept, which he introduces for the first time in this book, William Blau:

  • Develops reliable new momentum indicators based on double smoothing techniques
  • Shows how these indicators improve the effectiveness of most popular oscillators, including the RSI, MACD, and stochastic indicators, by solving a host of timing problems
  • Combines the standard Welles Wilder techniques with his original True Strength Index to improve the effectiveness of most directional movement indicators
  • Introduces new ways of identifying divergence that make implementation simpler than ever
  • And much more

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William Blau's Indicators and Trading Systems in MQL5. Part 1: Indicators

The first part of the article "Indicators and Trade Systems in MQL5 by William Blau. Part 1: Indicators " is a description of indicators and oscillators, described by William Blau in the book "Momentum, Direction, and Divergence".

The article describes the following groups of indicators:

  1. Indicators, based on the Momentum:
  2. Indicators, based on Stochastic:
  3. Indicators, based on the Stochastic Momentum:
  4. Indicators, based on a Mean Deviation from the market trends:
  5. Indicators based on the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence:
  6. Indicators, based on the Candlestick Momentum:
  7. Indicators, based on a Composite High-Low Momentum:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2014

newdigital, 2014.02.10 12:13

Introduction to Market Profile

Learn from the professionals how to apply Market Profile charting techniques to the intraday futures markets in this webinar.

Christopher Morris has been involved with Futex for a decade, having joined in July 2002 after graduating from the University of Manchester with a BA in Economics and Finance. Having cut his teeth trading European fixed income and global FX futures markets, Christopher now owns, manages and develops a portfolio consisting of two systematic trading strategies applied to twenty four different futures markets.

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MT5 CodeBase :

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External articles :

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Financial Video January 2014

newdigital, 2014.01.19 07:43

01: NON FARM PAYROLL (Part 1) - ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR ALL MARKETS

This is the 1st video in a series on economic reports created for all markets, or for those who simply have an interest in economics. In this and the next lesson, we cover the Employment Situation Report, also known as Non Farm Payroll.

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Non-farm Payrolls (metatrader5.com)

Non-farm Payrolls is the assessment of the total number of employees recorded in payrolls.

This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to the growth of the dollar. It is considered an indicator tending to move the market. There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value by 200,000 per month equates to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

  • Release Frequency: monthly.
  • Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

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FF forum economic calendar :

  • Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Measures : Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry
  • Usual Effect : Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
  • Frequency : Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
  • Why Traders Care : Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
  • Also Called : Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

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 mql5 forum thread : Non-Farm Employment Strategy

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AUDUSD M5 with 45 pips in profit (by equity) for NFP :


EURUSD M5 : 87 pips price movement by NFP news event :


NZDUSD M5 : 37 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change :




Trading EURUSD during NFP :



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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Financial Video January 2014

newdigital, 2014.01.23 12:58

02: NON FARM PAYROLL (Part 2)- ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR ALL MARKETS

This is the second part of video lesson about nfp. The first part of the lesson is on this post :

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Trading Video: Neither S&P 500 Rally Nor EURUSD Tumble Find Easy Momentum

  • While the S&P 500 has put in for another record high, momentum and volume remain elusive
  • The risk theme holds tremendous potential but disparate performance of benchmarks shows threat
  • Interest rate expectations for USD, EUR, GBP and others will be stoked by heavy event risk next week

There are fewer and fewer mature trends in the financial market that have been able to avoid meaningful correction. The S&P 500 remains one of the most prominent. This pillar of risk appetite continues to forge new record highs after a five year run; but it is doing so on a steady drop in participation and without a convincing backdrop of momentum. Meanwhile, the FX market is showing greater levels of doubt and even outright concern through carry pairs, high-risk Emerging Market currencies and even the more stalwart crosses. As the market awaits the definitive word on sentiment, Forex traders will have to keep on their toes as monetary policy speculation picks up in the upcoming week on heavy-hitting event risk like Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's NFPs. We take a look at the markets and its opportunities in today's Trading Video.


S&P 500 – News, Charts & Analysis
S&P 500 – News, Charts & Analysis
  • www.dailyfx.com
S&P 500 (^SPX) - short for Standard and Poor's 500, is a United States stock market index based on the market capitalizations of the top 500 companies that have common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. With its headquarters in New York City and dating back to 1860, Standard and Poor's has offices in 23 countries and...
 

Not really a "new video", but a very interesting one... It's about the "flash-crash" of the Dow Jones index on May, 2010.

 

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