i don't get why people say that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance

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mrluck1
926
mrluck1  

if you test a setup, and it is right more than 80% for the last 100 times, what are the odds that it was just pure luck, almost more easy to be bite by a shark, there are famous traders that say that, why do they say it, what i'm missing? 

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
8160
Marco vd Heijden  

It's a disclaimer so that they won't get blamed that one time it doesn't turn out as expected.

Suppose i have a working setup, and i give it to you, does not mean that it will be equally profitable for you.

People have a tendency to change parameters by setting them to their own ideas, thereby destroying the original concept.

Also. testing a setup is a wide area testing can be done in a lot of ways so you would have to define the method of testing,

Because many successful tests do not guarantee anything contrary to what most people think.

I have notified you of this fact, years ago.

Eleni Anna Branou
Moderator
6580
Eleni Anna Branou  

"Past performance its not a guarantee of future performance" doesn't mean that it can't happen again, but that its not certain that it will happen again.

Amir Yacoby
1219
Amir Yacoby  

Markets change. Do you agree to that statement or not?

If you agree, there's your answer.
If you don't agree, just check the daily ATR (average true range) in pips, for 50 days, for 1 year and see the changes.
There are periods of 30 pips on average, and periods of 300 pips average, daily.

And that's just one simple example I throw out showing the market change. There are many, it's obvious.

mrluck1
926
mrluck1  

"Because many successful tests do not guarantee anything contrary to what most people think."

"Markets change. Do you agree to that statement or not? 


If you agree, there's your answer."


So what you are telling me is that every time i see a setup with more than 80% accuracy for example, i should see it as purely luck?

For example and athlete,  Michael Phelps in his prime, one could not guarantee he would win medals? 

Eleni Anna Branou
Moderator
6580
Eleni Anna Branou  
mrluck1:

"Because many successful tests do not guarantee anything contrary to what most people think."

"Markets change. Do you agree to that statement or not? 


If you agree, there's your answer."


So what you are telling me is that every time i see a setup with more than 80% accuracy for example, i should see it as purely luck?

For example and athlete,  Michael Phelps in his prime, one could not guarantee he would win medals? 


Guarantee means certainty, don't you get it?

Nothing is certain in this world, only death and taxes are!

Amir Yacoby
1219
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck1:

"Because many successful tests do not guarantee anything contrary to what most people think."

"Markets change. Do you agree to that statement or not? 


If you agree, there's your answer."


So what you are telling me is that every time i see a setup with more than 80% accuracy for example, i should see it as purely luck?

For example and athlete,  Michael Phelps in his prime, one could not guarantee he would win medals? 

Who says it was luck, apart from your name?
It was a strategy that fitted the market in the period of time it ran upon (the 100 trades) - and it is not guaranteed it will fit the future market.
Call it whatever you like, I don't care - as long as you understand that it is not guaranteed to work in the future :)

And again, do you agree that markets change? If so, there's your answer. You implied that you agree, but you did not say it clearly.
mrluck1
926
mrluck1  

yes but if it fitted the market it was for a reason, right, or no reason or underlying mechanism? If it was for a reason, why people say that for the very next trade this reason will disappear? 

Amir Yacoby
1219
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck1:

yes but if it fitted the market it was for a reason, right, or no reason or underlying mechanism? If it was for a reason, why people say that for the very next

trade this reason will disappear? 

The reason is a mental projection of yours. You never know why it fitted, apart from the fact it fitted.

And anyway, whatever the reason, it is not permanent.
mrluck1
926
mrluck1  

ok thank you for you reply

Waseem Raza
9996
Waseem Raza  
mrluck1:

if you test a setup, and it is right more than 80% for the last 100 times, what are the odds that it was just pure luck, almost more easy to be bite by a shark, there are famous traders that say that, why do they say it, what i'm missing? 


Simply it means no profit guarantee 

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