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GBPJPY Daily Volatility Trade

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ra457
60
ra457  

Hi everybody.

I've been trying to make this indicator for a few days now but am having some difficulty spotting my error(s).

This is not an indicator for generating live signals but a way for me to view my strategy's success rate over time. Here's the idea behind the indicator:

GBPJPY moves A LOT! I believe that if a daily GBPJPY candle closes bullish (large or small body, preferably large) and there is significant enough range that day (high-low), then no matter what's going on with any trends or really any other technical data, traders in either Tokyo or London will attempt to continue the previous day's movement on the new daily bar at least one time. Because there are so many traders trading the pair and the ranges are so large, there is a better than 50% chance that the pair will continue at least 15 or 20 pips in the direction of the previous daily candle's body.

At one point, I won over 20 trades in a row just eyeballing the daily candles and placing a single position on market open in Sydney on the new daily candle. This is not going to net TONS of pips, but it can be consistent gain. And I don't know anyone who would turn down a consistent 20-60 pips a week. In my experience, the worst thing that can happen is that the initial continuation movement retraces and turns around, forming a wick on the new daily candle. But if you keep your target small enough (10 pips, 15 pips, not counting the spread), then you should be out of the market and pretty much done with GJ for that day (in my opinion!).

So this indicator is an attempt to optimize that very basic strategy and exploit the fact that the higher volatility on GJ translates into a certain amount of price movement in the direction of the previous day's candle just as the status quo. My personal opinion is that GJ (and even some other pairs) will always range a certain amount (wicks) in both directions if the previous day's range is high enough. But there is a significant percent chance (much greater than 50%, imo) that the price will generate a wick (if not continue much farther) in the same direction as the body of the previous day's candle. As with any other short term trade, this is not absolute and you have to be conscious of news events and other possible influences. But that's the basic idea.

In this indicator, I have 3 variables-- the bulk amount of daily candles in the past you wish to test with your personal parameters, the desired daily range you want to see on the previous candle in order to justify taking a volatility trade in the first place, as well as the actual target amount of pips you expect the new daily candle to move when it attempts to continue the previous day's movement.

I'm not a programmer and my only experience programming is from taking other indicators apart and trying to build my own.

If anyone could take a look at this and help me figure out how to get it to work correctly, I would be immensely thankful. I've commented in the code itself to hopefully make it as easy as possible for others to understand. It should generate a dot on a daily candle if the previous day's movement was large enough and the price continued to the specified target on the new candle. Right now it's drawing the dots on every candle and seems to ignore the DesiredPreviousRange parameter.

Thank you again and good luck in your trading.

R

Files:
robert11
169
robert11  
robert11
169
robert11  

gbp jpy

pattern : shark

Files:
gbp_jpy.gif 27 kb
fortune
55
fortune  

This Pair is very hard to trade. Besides the spreads are a bit higher than EURUSD and some other. How do I predict this pair correctly?

Judy Mank
513
Judy Mank  

The GBPJPY is one of the most volatile trading pair in the forex market market. This obviously could be as a result of the very high margin needed to trade the pair, GBP/JPY has noticeably a high pip value. This however could be very helpful as traders love volatility which the pair boasts excessively. Moreover the risk tracking system of this pair is simply outstanding.

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