A-B-C-D Trade - page 319
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Here's another example of the market obeying diagonal S&R, and in our case, pi ratios. This is 4-Hour USD/CHF.
Chart 1 plots a fib retracement:
Low = Sept 28th 08:00 .93341 and High = Oct 1st 00:00 .94372
The retrace during the Oct 1st 12:00 period was in-between the 78.6 and 88.6 levels (arrow).
Chart 2 overlays a FCT plot:
A = Sept 27th 12:00 high .94164
B = Sept 28th 08:00 low .93341
C = Oct 1st 00:00 high .94372
The SELL off of Point C declined all the way down to the trendline of Plot Line B. This is where the retrace (of Chart 1) halted.
Subsequent respect of fib channels include the Oct 2nd 12:00 bar's revisit to the Low, which also intersected the FCT 31.4.
The bounce up from that reached the -31.4 on Oct 3rd during the 04:00 bar.
As we can see, this technique works well in choppy market conditions.
Thank you, glad you are getting something out of these. I think the site also want viewers to click the "like" button. Perhaps it helps support this site.
***
This morning's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number came in at consensus with some projections. The big surprise was a significant drop in the Unemployment rate. That sent risk assets up.
The notable exception was Crude. As with the last bull pop, after an initial upsurge, Crude declined.
***
The attached is a weekly chart of EUR/USD. We drew trendlines at high-low swings, and its subsequent 31.4% pullbacks.
The last handful were:
10-26-2008 ** 11-22-2009 ** 12-20-2009
06-06-2010 ** 05-01-2011 ** 05-22-2011
05-01-2011 ** 01-08-2012 ** 02-05-2012
02-19-2012 ** 05-27-2012 ** 06-03-2012
07-22-2012 ** 09-16-2012 ** 09-23-2012
This also means that a FCT plot was valid, and moved a distance of 31.4% from Point C. Those 3 dates are Points B-C-D.
Let's take the last example.
Add Point A, which was the last significant peak of 02-19-12.
Point C is a 78.6% retrace of AB.
The decline from Point C found support at the -68.6, which means it gained 31.4%.
This support was at the top of the 09-23-2012 HAMA candle.
A wider plot and bigger picture would be the FCT of 11-29-2009 ** 06-06-2010 ** 05-01-2011, which is the 2nd example listed.
Several confirmations of this plot, including the 01-08-2012 pivot low. This set-up the read on the last resistance during the 09-16-12 period.
This of course became Point C of the last FCT. It added to the accumulative reasons to short at that time and place.
Don't spam this thread.
To make things easier, use S&R for Point C.
For example, use indicator MurreyMath1.0 (MML), SQ9 (all versions), PSQ9, etc.
The retrace of AB is C. We like to keep that retrace zone between 68.6% and 88.6%.
Chart 1 is 4H USD/JPY, with PSQ9 Moon at 90-degree intervals.
A = Aug 20th 00:00 high
B = Sept 13th 16:00 low
C = Sept 19th 04:00.
Point C is 88.6% retrace of AB. It is also at the Moon 90-degree resistance. There was also BAJA Bearish Divergence.
A gain of 2 levels to the fib channel's -31.4 touched during the Sept 25th 08:00 bar.
Shortly thereafter, the Moon 270-degree acted as support for the pivot up. The FC -31.4 intersected that pivot.
Chart 2 is 4H EUR/USD with MML. The Sept 30th Point C is 88.6 and at the 5/8th MML. The BUY hit the FC 50% and is a move still in progress. The 7/8th MML was touched Friday.
Chart 3 is 1H EUR/USD with PSQ9 Mars at 45-degree intervals. Point C was at the Mars 135-degree on Sept 26th. This was a 161.8 extension of AB to the downside, and not a retrace of AB. This means that the trade runs counter to the slope of the fib channels.
USD/JPY split-screen. 15-min session colors with MML on left, and 4H FCT on right.
Japan closed and pair declined to 78.068. The 12:00 GMT 4-Hour bar closed at the 68.6% retrace (78.121) and thus can be used for Point C on this BUY opportunity.
Point A = Oct 1st 04:00 low 77.781
Point B = Oct 5th 12:00 high 78.864
Point C = Oct 8th 12:00 low 78.064
Entry = between 78.064 and 78.121 + spread
The first TP level is illustrated in the attached pic. It is both the FC -68.6 and the horizontal 38.2. This price level of 78.32/34 is also the 2/8th MML on the 15-min chart, and the European session highs.
S/L options include just below the 78.6 price of 78.01. As price ascended, this could have been moved to just below Point C 78.064.
TP2 can be targeted for the FC -50. This currently is also near the HAMA high of 78.490/78.500.
R/R to TP1 = 20/15
R/R to TP2 = 35/15
You can figure out the (current) price for TP3 at the FC -31.4.
As we have mentioned on several occasions, money management is critical, if not key to success. Every so often, we offer an illustration toward this aspect.
Example
Turns starting account balance of $10,000 into compounded profit of $43,500 at the end of 1 year.
Roll that over and allow compounding for 2nd year would turn profit amount into $189,250.
With this example using only 36% win percentage, it displays the power of R/R and compounding.
Note that this is only an estimate. Results will vary since the sequence of wins and losses will impact compounding. Generally speaking, this example averages 15% per month, which is compounded.
The U.S. is on holiday today. Meanwhile, for the stock affectionados, we have the CFD Amazon (AMZN) on a 1-hour FCT plot. All times are GMT + 3 hours.
A = Sept 4th 19:30 low 244.61
B = Sept 14th 16:30 high 264.00
C = Sept 26th 17:30 low 248.21 (the 78.6% retrace fib = 248.76)
FC -50 hit Sept 27th 22:30 $257.33
A-C trendline bounce up Oct 2nd 21:30 $248.99
FC -31.4 hit Oct 5th 16:30 $261.80
Other important aspects:
BAJA Bullish Divergence at Point C BUY entry.
S/L just below 88.6 fib of 246.82
BAJA Bearish Divergence at FC -31.4
GAB Pivot at FC -50 and at bounce point off A-C trendline
2nd BUY opportunity off the A-C trendline hurdled the HAMA_T3 and stayed above it long enough to TP at the FC -31.4. The decline from there respected both the FC -50 and FC -68.6 en route down.
Major EURO pairs sold off early European and through the U.S. session, perhaps linked to jitters in the region again.
Chart 1 is a split-screen of EUR/USD.
Chart on the left is a 15-min session colors with Murreymath1.0 (MML). After a tight Asian, in which pair made a small pullback from its Oct 5th/8th high/low, traders sold off early European. A double-bottom can be seen in this time-frame.
The chart on the right is a 1-hour which displays the original FCT sloping down and the new plot sloping up.
A = Sept 19th 1.31708
B = Sept 30th 1.28026
C = Oct 5th 1.30704
A = Sept 30th 1.28026
B = Oct 5th 1.30704
C = Oct 9th 17:00 low 1.28575
We anticipated Point C would be 78.6% retrace of AB, which priced out at 1.28624. This happened during the 15:00 period. Subsequently, the current 17:00 period dipped a little lower, to 1. 28575, and thus we moved Point C to that location.
***
Chart 2 is EUR/JPY with a FCT plot on a 30-min time-frame for better viewing:
A = Oct 8th 10:30 low 101.112
B = Oct 9th 06:00 high 101.829
C = Oct 9th 15:30 low 100.578
We also added an ABC (fib expansion) plot:
A = Oct 9th 06:00 high 101.829
B = Oct 9th 07:30 low 101.227
C = Oct 9th 12:30 high 101.426
The pivot low and Point C of the FCT was a FE 100 (fib expansion). An similar to EUR/USD, there was a double-bottom.
Trading a BUY here would be counter the slope, as well as counter the HAMA_T3 trend.
Further our comments on USD/JPY, we attached the 1-hour view. After price achieved the TP1 at the -68.6, slight overshoot tell us we can move Point A to Sept 28th 05:00 low 77.428.
Either way, using original Point A or the New Point A, we had a bounce off the A-C trendline during the 14:00 period.
Here's the update to our last EUR/USD FCT plot, as viewed on the 1-hour time-frame.
Price moved down another notch to the 88.6% retrace fib (1.28331) during today's 02:00 period, therefore we moved Point C to that new location.
Entry made at the 78.6% fib would have stop-loss placement just below the 88.6 as the tightest option. This means those trades were still alive through the dip.
Price made a precise hit to the -68.6 during today's 14:00 period, marking a high of 1.29124.
Trades entered at the 78.6% and exited at the new -68.6 had R/R of 48/30 and ratio of 1.6:1.
Entries at the 88.6% and exited at the new -68.6 had R/R of 74/37 and ratio of 2:1. (assumes S/L just below the 100%).
BAJA Bullish Divergence with 2nd dip at Point C.
.