A-B-C-D Trade - page 29
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A = 06:55 high 1.3093
B = 07:40 low 1.3040
C = 07:55 high 1.3059
Asian Low = 1.3040
FE 100 = 1.3006
FE 127 = 1.2992
FE 161.8 = 1.2974
Awaiting better confirmation of breakout as it was very close. 08:00 5-min candle closed at 1.3039, and next candle opened at 1.3040 which is the same as the Point B price.
A = 06:55 high 1.3093
B = 07:40 low 1.3040
C = 07:55 high 1.3059
Asian Low = 1.3040
FE 100 = 1.3006
FE 127 = 1.2992
FE 161.8 = 1.2974
Awaiting better confirmation of breakout as it was very close. 08:00 5-min candle closed at 1.3039, and next candle opened at 1.3040 which is the same as the Point B price.
Worst entry should be 1.3029.
Target = FE 100 price of 1.3006 + spread & cushion = 1.3010.
Stop-loss
- just above Point C high 1.3059 + 4 pips = 1.3063. Risk = 34 pips
- just above 5-min pivot high 1.3045 + 4 pips = 1.3049. Risk = 20 pips
- just above Asian low 1.3040 + 4 pips = 1.3044. Risk = 15 pips
Risk = 20 pips
Reward = 19 pips
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Extension bounced off the FE 61.8.
Fibo fan 50% held at 1.3053.
- pull from high July 27th 13:40 1.3106
- low July 30th 1.3046
Traders using anything less than Point C for S/L would have stopped out.
We are in a 27/27 risk/reward trade to FE 100.
It has now broke past the FE 61.8 and we anticipate next stop is the FE 100
Extension bounced off the FE 61.8.Fibo fan 50% held at 1.3053.- pull from high July 27th 13:40 1.3106- low July 30th 1.3046Traders using anything less than Point C for S/L would have stopped out.We are in a 27/27 risk/reward trade to FE 100.It has now broke past the FE 61.8 and we anticipate next stop is the FE 100
Attached is 5-min chart. We have bookmarked 14:30 GMT as U.S. GDP release (major impact) and need to exit any trades prior to that.
O.K., the extension did hit the FE 100. It was a +27 pip for us.
We entered at 1.3037 since the open of the next candle after the breakout candle (5-min) was right at the Asian Low.
Therefore we chose to enter before the candle closed, which helped us maintain a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
Pair now testing support (and round number) 1.3000.
That's it for us, no after party since there is a 12:30 GMT data release.
Cheers
To quickly calculate the worst acceptable entry price for last trade, in order to stay with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio:
Profit target FE 100 = 1.3006 + 4 pips spread & cushion = 1.3010
Stop-loss at Point C = 1.3059 + 4 pips = 1.3063
Difference between the 2 = 53 pips.
Divide that in half = 27 pips
Add that to target: 1.3010 + 27 = 1.3037 entry SELL price.
Weren't able to squeeze in all of our commentary during last live trade session. We had posted a 1-Hour fibo fan chart previously.
As the EUR/USD established a new high July 29th at 13:00 GMT, we moved our fan pointing up.
Low = July 23rd 13:00 low 1.2794
High = July 29th 13:00 high 1.3106
This provided support which the pair respected. During the 08:00 1-hour candle, it bounced off the 38.2% diagonal fib. During the 10:00 candle, it bounced off the 50% diagonal fib.
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As a pivot low was established, we moved the fan pointing down to:
High = July 29th high 1.3106
Low = July 30th low 1.2980
We can see this provide pretty good S&R.
We can also pull retracement fibs from the same hi/lo
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Didn't want to clutter up this chart, thus not in there. Pull retracement fibs:
Low = July 23rd low 1.2794
High = July 29th 13:00 high 1.3106
The 38.2% retrace fib provided support.
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And last, a 4-hour chart with ABCs and its extensions (big picture).
1st ABC (black fibs):
A = June 7th low 1.1876
B = June 20th high 1.2467
C = June 29th low 1.2151
FE 100 = 1.2742
FE 127 = 1.2902
FE 161.8 = 1.3107
2nd ABC (blue fibs)
A = June 29th low 1.2151
B = July 9th high 1.2722
C = July 13th low 1.2522
FE 100 = 1.3105
FE 127 = 1.3247
FE 161.8 = 1.3446
Have a good weekend...cheers!
We've plotted 2 consecutive ABCs upward.
Point B (Break Price) = 1.3087
Both targets 1.3112/13.
Try to plot yourself. If current Point C holds, otherwise we must adjust of course.