A-B-C-D Trade - page 60
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EUR/USD broke support of 1.4008 during 05:55 candle period. Natural bounce of 1.4000 round number, prior to extending further.
The conservative exit is 1.3985 + spread and cushion = 1.3988. This is FE 78.6 and near the 38.2 price of 1.3983 on the larger retracement plot.
Otherwise the FE 161.8 as mentioned.
Can do both per previous posts.
While we have a minute....
the regular 138.2 = 1.3993
161.8 = 1.3885
FE 61.8 = 1.3999
FE 78.6 = 1.3992
FE 100 = 1.3984 (near 38.2% retrace plot)
FE 127 = 1.3974
FE 161.8 = 1.3960 (same as 50% wide retrace plot)
Just absorbing post-FED reactions by the markets and talking heads. As expected, rate held, but focus was on the amount of debt repurchase. A false rumor on the stock trading floor had amount at USD 900 billion versus the actual USD 600 billion. The projection/consensus was USD 500 B. This caused more of the whipsaw effect.
EUR/USD jacked down for a moment but had an enormous spike up. From the technical analysis basis, it hit the regular 161.8 extension from Nov 1st low to Nov 2nd high, with the Oct 15th high of 1.4157 acting as resistance. The Euro is up across the board.
FED verbiage included desire to keep interest rates low for an “extended period”. More reactions from the fundamental side later. This happens while the opposition party is taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives with mid-term election results coming in.
From an intra-day perspective, we will plot our fibs and await Asian and European session reactions. Like a rubber ball shot out of a pipe, we won’t try to catch the ball upon release, but look for the ricochets.
It’s quite a busy week, we must remember the various data releases and attempt to tip toe around them. See previous post on data release schedule.
We want to track the S&R action after the FED released its statements at 18:30. This would involve “curve-fitting” the fibs.
Before we do that, let’s point out a couple of items.
1) Fibo Fan support confirmed from plot:
Low = Nov 1st 15:45 1.3863
High = Nov 2nd 17:15 1.4057
Plot was pretty much a no-brainer, if you have been working with this tool.
Support from 61.8 occurred at Nov 3rd 15.15 GMT price of 1.3998, 18:15 GMT 1.4013, and its 38.2 fib at the end of the U.S. session 22:30 GMT 1.4122.
2) 4-Hour Chart Retracement Tool plot from:
Low = Oct 27th 1.3733
High = Nov 1st 04:00 1.4011
138.2 regular extension = 1.4117 (hit with FED release)
161.8 = 1.4183
Although pair probed above it, Oct 15th high of 1.4157 is acting as resistance.
3) Retracement plot, disregarding spike high:
Low = 15:15 1.3998
High = 20:00 1.4146
23.6 = 1.4111 (just hit 23:15 candle)
38.2 = 1.4089
50 = 1.4072
61. = 1.4055
At the moment at 23:15, pair showing breach of recent support at 1.4121 ahead of Asian, and resting on 23.6 fib from Plot #3. Could be profit taking from U.S .traders
Remember, any short would be counter-trend reserved for experienced traders. With Asian due to open, it can conceivably spurt back up.
Trading during the European session looks to be difficult considering its numerous data releases. Watch for opportunity during Asian.
Experienced traders shorting EUR/USD may have entered after break of support 1.4121 or 1.4111.
Pair now approaching round number 1.4100, where natural bounce is expected. Some will take profit here and/or at further support levels.
We also plot a mini-ABC from top with swings from 21:15/23:15/23:30, which resulted in:
FE 100 = 1.4105 (hit 01:00)
Fe 127 = 1.4096
FE 161.8 = 1.4085
We are plotting the smaller retracements and extensions on the 15-min chart.
EUR/JPY and USD/JPY making noise testing and breaking support.
EUR/JPY attempting a full retrace to pre-FED level.
Low = 18:00 113.96
High = 18:45 114.77
Disregarding the spike high.
When we said that we would "curve fit" the fibs, this is a good example. On the 15-min chart, we can see how well the market respected the fib levels of this plot.
By 02:00, we are confident in the fibs during Asian. This allows us to trade between the fibs, one of the 3 techniques displayed here.
Revised in blue.
Nov 4th
08:00 - GBP - rated low-impact
08:15 - CHF
09:00 - EUR
10:00 EUR
12:00 - GBP rate decision & Asset Purchase Target
12:45 - EUR rate decision
14:00 CAD
14:30 USD
Nov 5th
JPY interest rate decision this day, moved up 3 weeks!
00:30 - AUD
08:30 - GBP
09:00 - EUR
10:00 - EUR
11:00 - CAD
12:30 - US Non-Farm Payrolls
14:00 - USD