A-B-C-D Trade - page 91
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EUR/USd retrace looks to be over, for this segment, and pair will attempt to extend further to the downside needing to hurdle previous pivot of 1.3276.
The GannBox_144 horizontal #54 line price of 1.3308 held as EUR/USD attempted to drift higher. The 15-min chart shows 07:00 candle closing right at 1.3308.
Now pair has just breached previous low of 1.3276, extending to its FE 127 price of 1.3270 and probing lower.
As the U.K. is closed today, we still must wait for market to cycle through individual Euro zone PMI data through 09:00 GMT.
EUR/USD managing to stay below 1.3300 during the releases. We look for pair to resume down trend after this wave of data.
EUR/USD visited recent high, hung at 1.3314 long enough to fill on bounce trade down.
Attached is a 15-min chart of EUR/USD on Jan 3rd. We have 2 trend lines for upswings. The first one was during Dec 31st, when it broke close to the end of the day/week.
As the new week opened, both the Japan and China physical equities markets were closed.
EUR/USD broke down after opening of week and pivoted up to form a tweezer top with the 22:00 and 23:00 hourly candles (red X). Tweezer tops and bottoms are reversal signals/formations.
We also thought that the Sunday Reversal Candle had merit as a possible reversal signal, due to its small body. Entry for sell position at 00:00 (red arrow) price of 1.3358.
We adjusted our Point/Swing A based on price activity respecting the FE 61.8 and FE 78.6. Swings were 17:15/20:15/22:15. Next stop would be the FE 100 = 1.3289. Profit = 69 gross pips. 1.3288 was the Dec 31st low.
Pair formed a tweezer bottom with hourly 01:00 and 02:00 candles (red X). The 02:00 was a doji candle. Both are reversal signals (although not be to used as a stand-alone signal).
Monitor longer interval charts and trigger with shorter interval chart.
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The bounce up from the tweezer bottom of 40 pips formed Swing C. We plotted new ABC swings 23:30/01:45/07:00, which saw extension to the FE 78.6. Market proceeded to cycle through a series of European PMI data up to 09:00, which formed another upswing.
The top was just short of previous high (Swing C), and provided an opportunity for a bounce trade down. This bounce went for 34 gross pips before reversing to the upside.
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A revisit to the Asian High (or Swing A high) during the 13:00 candle was the next opportunity for a bounce trade. From Swing A price, this bounce shot down 56 pips. If we used a trend line (pink), an exit would be at close of 14:15 candle price of 1.3331, for +30 gross pips profit.
Trading the break of the trend line went for 27 gross pips.
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EUR/USD eventually made its way to the 138.2 regular extension (1.3392) based on plot from Swing B-A. This price is also the 23.6 fib (blue) from wider plot Dec 31st low 1.3288 and high 1.3424. Bounced down 28 pips to the trend line.
The trend line for that upswing was broken at 18:45 and provided a trade opportunity that captured 54 gross pips through 23:00 and end of the U.S. session.
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The attached chart features the Ehler’s Fisher Transform indicators. We displayed both the cross-over and histogram version, which do not repaint, and attach for you to download. We can see that the histogram bars change from thick to thin at the cross-over point. This cross-over is very similar (almost exact) to the FX_Sniper’s_Ergodic_CCI_Trigger.
RSI-TC indicator, with alarm, is also on the chart.
Jan 4th EUR/USD early Asian.
Jan 3rd
High = 18:40 1.3389
Low = 20:55 1.3357
138.2 = 1.3334 (current)
161.8 = 1.3325
Trend line
Jan 3rd 16:55 low 1.3366
Jan 3rd 20:55 1.3357
Currently at trend line, which is also 138.2 per above.
Longer-term fibs:
61.8 = 1.3340 (broke)
78.6 = 1.3317
100 = 1.3288
The 1-hour SQ9 chart has its 45-degree at 1.3336.
67.5 = 1.3307 (close to previous swings' 45 and 90.
90 = 1.3279
EUR/USD daily chart has Jan 3rd candle as virtually colorless (1-pip body), denoting indecision and possibly reversal. Use with other tools/indicators.
Asia is first session. Japan invented the candlestick, so it goes to reason there would be a downward reaction, at least initially. Pair is + 23 pips to the downside thus far.
EUR/USD
Low = 01:40 1.3328
High = 03:00 1.3358
161.8 = 1.3377 which is about same as session high from 00:10 1.3376.
If a trader has that figured out in advance, a waiting sell order can be placed at the top for the bounce trade down. Exit at set number of pips or at fib or pivot areas.
Just hit 1.3352, which is the 50% retrace fib, for + 25 from top. Retrace fibs not shown, only extension fibs.
More likely fill is 1.3367-69 at top for the short as market moved fast at bounce. We got in at 1.3367.