InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 197

 

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 05, 2015

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. The US will publish some macroeconomic reports such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 120.78. Resistance. 2: 120.55. Resistance. 1: 120.31. Support. 1: 120.02. Support. 2: 119.79. Support. 3: 119.54.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 06, 2015

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some macroeconomic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Yellen Speech, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.59.

Resistance. 2: 120.36.

Resistance. 1: 120.12.

Support. 1: 119.84.

Support. 2: 119.61.

Support. 3: 119.36.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 11, 2015

The new week starts with a big event, the Eurogroup's meeting. The Finance Minister of Germany expected difficulties in reaching an agreement on Greece within today's Eurogroup's meeting. But the Greek government expects progress in negotiation with Greece lenders. After today's big event, major economic data fall on Wednesday. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q, French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts due. Wednesday is another big data for this pair. We expect the German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France are likely to be stagnant. Technical view:The pair was unchanged over the previous week. The pair has been developing the technical bullish signs for 4 consecutive weeks. The divergence between the ECB and Fed favors the long-term bearish view for this pair. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma after 52 weeks. Last week, the pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance of 1.3997 and made a high at 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema& 100Dsma.On Friday's session, the pair rejected exactly at 100Dsma. Until the pair closes below 1.1300 100Dsma, bulls will be losing the grip. The parallel support is found at 1.1175; below this 1.1145 is another minor support. The strong bullish support base is found at 1.1050. Until the pair closes above 1.1030, bullish view remains in play. The near term will be capped, in case the price closes below 1.1050. The lower low formation will be launched in case the event takes place. The daily chart indicates the weekly trading pattern framed between 1.1300 and 1.1050. Further bullish will re-ignite in case the price closes above 1.1300. The real panic will be triggered below 1.1030 towards 1.0890. In case the price closes above 1.1300, it can skyrocket towards 1.1397 and 1.1475, whereas 1.1392 is median resistance. Negative divergence has been developing in the daily chart. Intraday view: In the hourly and four-hour chart, the price was closed and trading below the hourly moving averages 34hrsma. In the H1 chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.1225, until the price remains below 34hrsma, bearish view is likely to move towards 1.1150, 1.1110, and 1.1100. We expect 1.1050 and 1.1030 as well in a day or two. Bulls are strengthening looms above 1.1230 with minor upside possibility at 1.1250, 1.1275, and 1.1300. The real strength is seen only above 1.1300 towards 1.350, a previous high of 1.1392 and 1.1475. Trade: Selling below 1.1175 buying above 1.1230

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 13, 2015

We have already called for a possible recover from lows regarding this Index, but the USDX is already making a lower low pattern formation. This lower swing could cause a correction in the coming hours until the resistance zone of 95.00 at least. If the USDX makes a breakout at this level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 96.30.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 14, 2015

EUR/USD: The strength in EUR is very important as that it keeps the EUR/USD pair (as well as certain EUR pairs) strong. It also keeps the USD/CHF under selling pressure. The price has already moved upwards by 230 pips this week and the resistance line at 1.1400 is likely to be tested easily.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 15, 2015

EUR/USD: So far the EUR/USD pair has moved upwards by at least 260 pips. The resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500 could be tested: they could even be breached to the upside. On the downside, there are support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250. There is no threat to the existing bullish bias as long as the price is above those support lines

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

Overview: On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established. Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established. As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5. Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs. On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical resistance zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible sell entry if enough bearish pressure is applied.

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EUR/USD Rebound For June 01 (Weekly Strategy)

Technical summary: We think the best way to count the price action since the top of 1.5247 is that an expanded flat is unfolding. In this case one final decline to just below 1.4913 should be seen before the next strong rally higher. In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.5221 and more importantly a break below 1.5104 will confirm the decline to the territory below 1.4913 before the next impulsive rally is expected. That means we have to be aware that there is a small risk that the correction in wave (ii) ended with a wave c failure at 1.4970 and the next impulsive rally is already unfolding for a continuation higher towards at least 1.6335. Trading recommendation: We will wait for a EUR-buying opportunity around 1.4913.

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis. Weekly Survey

Major economic data is due for release today. German Zew economic sentiment, Zew economic sentiment and final CPI y/y are due today. The German Zew economic sentiment has been disappointing thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. Greek issue remains the main focus of attention in the near term. At yesterday's session, the USD changed the direction and was trading higher against most major pears. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback managed to get away from lows. Technical view:The pair started the new week with losses after five consecutive profitable weeks. We have already said the pair is likely to make the near-term top between 1.1480 and 1.1535. The pair rejected at 1.1467 and fell by 160 pips. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Dema 1.1300. We recommended selling below 1.1390 with a target at 1.1300. The pair made a low exactly at our targets. At today's Asian session, the pair was trading above the support level. Weekly support is found at 1.1130 20Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.1300, bears will aim at 20Wsma and the level of 1.1050 later. The 100Dsma is found at 1.1178. We expect fresh selling below 1.1300 towards 1.1200 and 1.1178 in the least case 1.1130 likely. Today we expect negative data on the euro. Intraday support is found at 1.1300, 1.1210, and 1.1190. Resistance is seen at 1.1326, 1.1360, and 1.1390. Use every rise to sell with sl 1.1390 and safe sell will trigger below 1.1300 with targets at 1.1210 and 1.1190.

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AUDNZD long term downtrend could continue

Looking at the long-term picture based on the daily time frame, AUD/NZD got quite volatile over the last year. While it has been consistently rising since the beginning of 2014, after reaching the top at 1.1298 it felt sharply. The pair lost over 1200 points in 5 months. The uptrend breakout allowed applying Fibonacci in order to find support/resistance and potential targets. The most significant fact is a break below the downside target, S3 (1.0344), which assumes a continuation of a long-term decline. In addition, AUD/NZD is currently rejecting the 50% Fibs, the point of the trend-line breakout, and it looks like a strong resistance has been established around the R1 (1.0820) area. Consider selling AUD/NZD around the current levels. A target is seen at S2 (1.0570), the most appropriate area because it was acting as support as well as resistance previously. A break above 1.0890, which was a high back on May 13, could send the price higher to test the uptrend as resistance this time. Support: 1.0707, 1.0569, 1.0344 Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0933, 1.1289

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