A-B-C-D Trade - page 88
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Dec 21st was indeed a strange day due to
1) China moving the market by stating it will make concrete efforts to support the EU during their crisis.
2) Moody's (once again) notifying the world that a PIIGS nation is under review, this time Portugal. They sound a little late, as the bond traders had already been on this for several days.
3) Relaxation of the Korean confrontation, at least temporarily,with North Korea backing down.
EUR/USD spiked around during Asian and Euro sessions, with the a collapse occurring about 13:30 GMT, after a spike to the upside, and then again at 18:30.
Attached is a 5-min chart where we marked divergence n candle direction (up) and Fisher_Yur4ik histogram bars (down) during the B to C leg of the ABC formation. This was at 15:30 - 16:40.
The Point/Swing A had 3 options for he high. It this scenario, we need to check the retracement fib ratio. All 3 had merit, but for this example we used the 14:00 high.
The Swing B was also the Asian Low. The Swing C was 38.2% pullback.
The down slope of the Fisher's 2 green humps/histogram clusters gave us an advance notice that the uptick in price was losing steam. We saw a second red histogram bar beginning of 16:50 candle.This was right after pair bounced off of the 38.2 fib.
Break candle was 17:20. Entry at open of next candle was at price of 1.3114.
FE 100 = 1.3077, which was it 18:35.
If you elected to use the fib retracement tool instead of the ABC tool (fib expansion), the 161.8 = 1.3074, which was also hit at 18:35.
Since 15:00 of the down move, the Forex Freedom Bars (multi-time frame) were also all on red.
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Be advised that there have been definite acknowledgment that the Fisher_Yur4ik indicator repaints. Reportedly, this was due to re-coding into the MT4 language. A version that doesn't repaint but has severe lag time is also available. I'll post them both soon.
We haven't been using the Fisher_Yur4ik long, we don't notice the repaint during trading, since we are in and out pretty quick. We marked the 0-line where it crosses over from one color to the next color. Try that test yourself.
****
We were not looking at the 15-min chart with the Fisher_Yur4ik during the late Asian session. If it did not repaint, the entry signal, based on divergence preceding it, was at the opening of the 07:45 GMT candle, price of 1.3189. EUR/USD proceeded to spike down the next 2 candles to 1.3133.
We're going to keep an eye on this, and you should as well.
Here is the indicator Fisher_Yur4iK_2
Rating agency Fitch is reviewing Greece for possible downgrade to junk status.
Bloomberg sues to get documents it claims were hidden, regarding Greece's debt level prior to being admitted to EU.
Obviously, this kind of news will put pressure on the Euro again.
By the way, Fitch would be the last rating agency to down grade Greece to junk status, if that's what they end up choosing to do.
Attached is Dec 22nd 15-min EUR/USD chart. We have MurreyMath1.0 at Period (P) setting of 128. This allows us to flip between the 5 and 15-min charts without a change in the levels (for this day).
At 10:00 GMT, we can see the breach of the Asian High, just short of the 8/8th line. The arrow near that top is entry signal (1.3166) generated by the Fisher_Yur4ilk_2 indicator on the 15-min chart. The next arrow is signal from the Fisher on the 5-min chart.
We plot fib retracement (not shown) from low = 23:15 1.3079 and high = 10:00 1.3180. The initial retracement action hit the 50% fib of 1.3130 during the 10:45 candle.
Pair bounced off of the 50% fib and back up to the 23.6% fib (you must add this 23.6 level to your retracement tool).
From there, the 12:45 (5-min) candle opened below the Asian High, and the 5-min Fisher signal told us to sell again, or stay in the trade.
A full retrace was achieved at 15:00, just prior to close of European session..
Note: first Fisher signal at 07:15 only lasted one candle for 19 pips before popping back up at the 3rd candle.
USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart
Just extended to its 161.8 price of 83.11, from plot of
high = Dec 21st 16:00 83.90
low = Dec 22nd 09:00 83.41
Same as MurreyMath1.0 -1/8th
Edit: Note that Japan is on Holiday today.
Trust those of you enjoying the holidays are having a great time. Volume is thinner but there is still movement for intra-day traders, with the exception of the 24th and upcoming New Year day.
Let's pull back and look at the big picture. Attached is the EUR/USD WEEKLY chart with following plots:
1) Fib retracement (yellow) and fibo fan (pink)tools:
Low = Oct 22nd, 2000 price .8225
High = July 13th, 2010 price 1.6038
This is all-time low & high.
2) 2nd fibo fan (pink) from top:
High = July 13th 2010 1.6038
Low = June 6th 1.1876
3) Andrews Pitchfork (aqua color):
1st click point (handle) = Dec 26th, 2004 high 1.3668
2nd click point = Oct 31st, 2010 high 1.4281
3rd click point = June 6th low 1.1876
This produced middle fork, which provided support Dec 19th. It also is nearly same as 38.2 retrace fib (yellow).
USD/JPY testing key support 82.36, which it probed previously on Dec 8th. Plot is
Low = Oct 31st 80.26
High = Dec 15th 84.50
50% = 82.36
This area also home to other fibs.
Further our last post regarding the EUR/USD Weekly chart, we also must point out the 161.8 extension pair made from plot of June 6th low to Aug 1st high. That is same top as other fibs.
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EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart
ABC swings Dec 26th 23:00/Dec 27th 07:00/Dec 27th 13:00 produced a hit on the FE 127 1.3254 during today's 03:00 candle.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
Using ###SQ9 indicator, we have S&R degree levels that match up with fibs from Nov 30th low and Dec 5th high.
China raised interest rates (to fight inflation) during the Christmas weekend. Probably timed it this way in an attempt to spread out trader reaction.
EUR/USD currently at 1.3327, made ABC swing on 15-min chart (Pivot C at 08:00), which points to potential breakout of Asian High 1.3254.
FE 100 = 1.3304
FE 127 = 1.3330
FE 161.8 = 1.3363
No data until U.S. session kicks in with highlight being US Consumer Confidence at 15:00 GMT, which is projected to grow. This may keep longs in check.