The London Open - page 62
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Hi Shorthand Rockie
f u cn rd ths u cn rd shrthnd
Little Rollingstone market update for you. Nothing handsome enough to tempt me today so far but a few of the peeps down in the depths of the steamy Boiler Room have snaffled a few pips on Crude. A few are in The Orange-Lady too, but for me the markets are being a bit indecisive. A few took GBPUSD too but it's being fiesty!
FTSE and Dax have retraced well on 15m but Dow still slumbering after its big fall yesterday, so will watch carefully. Might do this, might do that kinda day. Not much else, eurusd and gbpusd both boxed in on 15m.
I'd rather be on the beach!
Happy Welshcakes
F
Oh F,
Of crse I cn rd fng shtnd. Bt my splng nt 2 gd!
Thanks for the update. Sounds like da boiler room hotting up, and making dem pips!
Weather check - windy, rain showers, and tootieless!!
Need a fix rockie
P.s bars open, auzzie red, margaret river. Yum
Ooooooh, frustration Rockie
You do need a fix...
F
Wow - thanks for that. Just got hold of the FT. Read cover to cover and now licking the print off my hands. Great with red wine. Yum!
Oh to be deep in the depths of the room, mining for pips. Dreaming.....
If I keep drinking and eating I shall be a candidate for hog bellies....anybody trading them?
Ciao
Pork bellie rockie
So the big question. The Dollar IS back but fow long ?
Gold and Crude took a serious pasting again and now Euro & Pound & Swissie & Yen are all looking weak against the Greenback.
Remember the head and shoulders pattern I spoke about on Monday on Gold?
OK, it's very Quasimodo, but we're almost there, once again sitting on the daily 50sma.
Crude is now well & truly below the weekly 20ema with nothing below, but this level was a major support on the 4th of June so worth keeping an eye on.
The story looks like it could continue but as I found out yesterday to my expense, it's always best for the move to become established and not to jump in too early like I did on GBPUSD.
I'll be a little bit more cautious today.
Currencies are all correct side of the pivot for continued Sollar strength and I'll be keeping my eyes on the Yen today. My little Japanese girlfriend was rather tough yesterday, only moving around 80 pips opposed to Euro's 200.
There seems to be a lot of resistance up here and with the weeking 50sma (daily 200) looming up there too it's no suprise to see the shy girl stuttering a bit, bless ! Will look for a possible entry above 108.10
Everything looks oversold or overbought but I always get this wrong and stay out of a continuation thinking it overbought/oversold. That's why I usually leave a little bit running and switch to higher timeframes just to capitalise.
You know the rules on these 5m charts by now. If the Gold and Crude continue to fall, then wait for the 63CCI's to cross on the majors and then a little 1-2-3 on the price and 7CCI to get you in.
Just keep in the back of your mind where the 4hr 21CCI is (336 on 15m/84 on 15m).
Sorry I'm being a bit vague but I have never seen crude fall 2500 pips before and so it's a new experience for me too, trying to find the bottom, or wondering when enough is going to be enough.
In appreciation for the thread and all my efforts great and small I recieved a big box of cakes yesterday which was lovely.
Should anyone else feel the urge to shower me in gifts or chocolate , please drop me a line.
I have discoverer Frances CAC40 on my Metatrader so I will pop back at 8am to discuss the indices a little.
Until then, Au Revoir
Hi Mr Le Pimp,
I only eat 'Rockcakes', so don't save me one! Enjoy the fuss - u deserve it!
Cooking Rockie
Hi Mr Le Pimp,I only eat 'Rockcakes', so don't save me one! Enjoy the fuss - u deserve it! Cooking Rockie
Hey, Rockstar
How's the holiday panning out.
Have been a bit out of touch with all your little messages. You sounding like you want to come home.
Good morning all,
The beast is back !! The Dollar is dead !!
How many times has the Dollar been dead n buried just to come kick us in the face when we're not looking?
So what's going on now? Was Crude's dramatic 600 pip move the end of the downward spiral?
We'll have to see about that, but he's above the 4hr 20ema which has been key at holding down the dragon for the last few weeks.
Gold has yes to find such steam, and as I said before, a break to thr upside of $941 before I start getting hot under the collar.
So let us look at the shorter-term to see what we can expect this morning, prior to moving to the currencies.
Well, despite the Gold being stuck beneath the 4hr 20 still there does seem to be 100 pips of potential to the upside, to about $917-$920.
To the downside, is it worth talking about with crude looking so strong?
No I don't think so, not this morning anyway, so with both bosses above the pivot we're looking for potential Dollar weakness for ther session .
Onto the currencies, there's really not a lot of change from a longer term perspective. Euro and Pound still firmly beneath the 0.0 on the 4hr chart CCI and Yen & Swissie still well above indicating that these are just little retracements in the longer trend and not a change of sentiment.
I have alway said that the FOREX markets react more to Gold prices than they do to Crude markets so this would explain the lack of change so far.
I have said that I would not play against the 4hr CCI (336 on a 15m chart) but continue to do so without any great success, but what are we to do?
Let's not forget the bigger picture here, the daily trend for crude is still firmly down intil we get above $132.
So do we wait and see what happens or persevere with a counter trend more?
Let have a go at least, but wait for Gold to show us the way.
I think it could be a quiet session with Gold looking like it has very limited room, but if she does go then there might be some small opportunities for a long on EURUSD GBPUSD and a short USDJPY USDCHF.
Nothing terribly exciting.
Most of my pips this week have come from little 10-20 pip plays on the indices. I have made hardly anything on the forex.
Have a good session
Once again I have learnt to my expense this morning how fatal trading against the 4hr trend can be.
It can be done, don't get me wrong, but you never do know exactly how far your counter-trend move will go before it stops and continues in the overall direction.
I managed to turn two good calls into two losing trades this morning.
A short on USDJPY against the 4 hr trend that went 15pips before reversing
A long on Gold against the trend which went 25 pips before reversing.
Yes I could have taken profit but chose not to as my targets had not been met, and instead coming away with a loss on each.
Take a look at the 60m EURUSD chart with my 84CCI (4x21 = 84 / 4x60m=4hr).
It's the 4hr trend and notice the nice meves when this crosses over the 0.0.
I have put vertical lines to demonstrate. Green for cross from negative to positive, Red for cross of positive to negative.
Sure, there are opposite direction moves but the biggest and best ones - the ones we should be in - are to be had by following this 4hr trend (336CCI on the 15m chart).
Dear Le Pimp,
Give me a trade against the trend and a loss versus 2 bickering teenagers anyday! The bar seems to be opening earlier and earlier. Only 4 weeks to go......
Enjoying the thread banter. It is keeping me sane(ish).
Small wager on continuied dollar strength and crude weakness!
Tequila Rockie