CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly data - page 22
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Takeaways From This Week's COT Report: 2 Surprises
The following are the key takeaways from this week's COT report as provided by Scotiabank. (Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 26 & were released Friday Jan 29)
IMM positioning data for the week through Tuesday suggest investors are less convinced by the USD’s bullish credentials these days. The aggregate bull bet on the USD dropped a little over USD 1bn to USD26.2bn, the smallest aggregate position reflected in this data series since mid‐October.
The changes are somewhat surprising, we think, considering the central bank policy backdrop.
Firstly, investors failed to add significantly to their bearish bets on the EUR despite strong hints from ECB President Draghi last week that policy could be eased further. In fact, net bull bets on the EUR fell by USD1.4bn this week, mainly a reflection of investors covering the EUR shorts. Speculative accounts continued to boost bull bets on the JPY, meanwhile, but (following today’s BoJ easing and JPY sell‐off) we assume this trend will reverse next week. Net JPY longs rose USD1.2bn through Tuesday to the highest in four years.
A second surprise in this week’s positioning is the lack of change in net CAD bear bets. In fact, the net positioning edged a little more CAD‐negative through Tuesday, despite last week’s un‐ changed BoC decision. Investors were happy to fade the initial CAD rebound at least but may be less inclined to do so now. Bearish CAD bets remain at a relative extreme, suggesting plenty of room for the CAD to bounce.
The IMM’s net short GBP position was boosted by some 9k con‐ tracts this week (equating to a USD850 mn boost) as expectations of BoE rate hike this year continue to fade.
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CFTC commitment of traders report Forex futures market speculator positions data from the CFTC commitment of traders report as of the close on February 2, 2016
The EUR position was trimmed by 40K in the current week going from 127K to 87K. The change was as of the close of business on Tuesday. Given the big moves in the EURUSD were on Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps there was a further significant reduction in the net position on those days. The short position was the smallest short since October 20th week when the net short position was at -63K.
CFTC - Commitments of Traders: Speculators Less Bearish on EUR; More Bullish on Gold The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending February 2 on Friday.
CFTC commitment of traders report: EUR shorts slashed 24K in the current week Forex futures market speculator positions from the CFTC commitment of traders report as of the close on February 9, 2016
EUR shorts were slashed 24K. Other big changes were in the AUD where the short was cut by 20K to near flat. GBP shorts were cut by 9K. JPY longs increased by 6K.
The report is from the close on Tuesday. It is the net position of speculative positions.
source
CFTC - Commitments of Traders: Speculators Less Bullish on U.S. Dollar; More Bullish on Japanese Yen The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending February 9 on Friday.
CFTC commitment of traders report: EUR shorts trimmed by 15K in the current week Forex futures market speculator positionsfrom the CFTC commitment of traders report as of the close on February 16, 2016
The EUR shorts were trimmed by 15K to 48K. This is the smallest short position since June 3, 2014.
CFTC - Commitments of Traders: Speculators Less Bullish on U.S. Dollar, Oil; More Bullish on Gold, Silver, JPY The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending February 16 on Friday.
CFTC commitment of traders report: Marginal changes in net positions in the current week Forex futures market speculator positions from the CFTC commitment of traders report as of the close on February 23, 2016
The biggest change of position was an 8K trimming of the short position in the CAD. The AUD longs increased by 7K. The JPY longs were increased by 5K.
For the EUR, the shorts were trimmed by only 1K after some steady declines since the Dec 1 short of 183K.
CFTC - Commitments of Traders: Speculators More Bullish on Oil, Gold The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending February 23 on Friday.
Takeaways From This Week's COT Report: Paring EUR Risk, Bullish AUD Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Feb 23 & were released Friday Feb 26.
A broad-based deterioration in USD sentiment has pushed the aggregate USD long position to $7.6bn at levels last seen in midJuly 2014. Investors have added to net long positions in AUD and JPY, and have simultaneously pared back net shorts in all of the remaining currencies. Positioning risk has been reduced dramatically over the past few months, with a $37bn decline in the aggregate USD long in the period since late November.
Investors have pared risk in EUR, simultaneously reducing both long and short positions. The modest narrowing in the net short was the smallest position change in 7 weeks, however it still pushed the net short position to its smallest level since June 2014.
The build in JPY risk is notable, adding to JPY’s vulnerability as we consider the simultaneous rise in both long and short positions over the past two weeks. The bullish, net long $5.9bn JPY position is at levels last seen in 2012.
CAD sentiment has improved for a second consecutive week, the net short position narrowing $0.6bn to $2.7bn at levels last seen in mid-November. Details include a steady liquidation in CAD shorts alongside renewed confidence from CAD bulls—we note a second weekly build in gross longs.
Similar details have been observed in the position changes for AUD—the rise in longs and paring in shorts has provided for a cumulative $3.2bn swing over the past five weeks, pushing AUD sentiment into bullish territory with a modest $0.7bn net long position.