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Brent: general review Current trend Since the beginning of this week Brent has been trading in the range of 108.00-107.00. New sanctions of the West against Russia have not affected the price of Brent significantly. Following yesterday’s minor decline, Brent is approaching the upper limit of the channel at 107.80. Fundamental data that can have impact on the rate of Brent are: inflation rate in Germany (16:00 GMT+3), and US GDP (16:30 GMT+3). Support and resistance Support levels: 107.00, 106.40 and 105.50. Resistance levels: 108.00, 108.65 and 109.50. Trading tips It is likely that the pair will move in the channel of 107.00-108.00. Buy and sell positions can be opened as part of the correction from the limits of the channel at 107.00 and 108.00.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The pair is still falling, Tenkan-sen line (0.9338) is the closest resistance level. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.9265).
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken down the cloud, forming a strong signal to sell. Senkou Span B line is the closest resistance level (0.9324). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.9225).
Key levels Support levels: 0.9265, 0.9225. Resistance levels: : 0.9324, 0.9338. Trading tips All Ichimoku lines confirm the Bearish trend. Targets for the short positions are 0.9265 and 0.9225. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend The British pound continues to decline against the USD. Because of lack of strong fundamental data, investors started to close long positions, as quite recently the price of GBP/USD has reached the five-year highs. Yesterday’s statistics on housing price index in the UK was not able to change downtrend. Today, market participants are waiting for the US news on the number of jobs outside agricultural sector (15:30 GMT+3), and business activity index in the manufacturing sector (17:00 GMT+3). Support and resistance Support levels: 1.6855, 1.6810 and 1.6770. Resistance levels: 1.6895, 1.6930, 1.6960 and 1.7000. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downwards, indicating that downtrend continues. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are increasing, which shows that sellers are prevailing in the market. It is likely that the pair will continue to decline in the short-term. Buy positions can be opened at the current price level with the target of 1.6810. After breaking down this level the pair can go to 1.6770.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: general review Current trend Last week the USD fell down against major competitors, following the release of poor US macro-economic statistics. It became known that the number of new jobs was below the forecast, amounting to 209 000. Unemployment rate went up by 0.1% in July, amounting to 6.2%. Although ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector was above the forecast, amounting to 57.1 points, investors did not become more optimistic about the American currency. Marco-economic data, which is going to be released today, is unlikely to affect movement in the pair EUR/USD. Investors are waiting for the data on retail sales in Eurozone and ISM business activity index in the service sector of the USA, which will be released on Tuesday. Support and resistance On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands demonstrate slight divergence. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are rapidly decreasing, indicating growing influence of the buyers. Support levels: 1.3405, 1.3365, 1.3320 and 1.3285. Resistance levels: 1.3445, 1.3485 and 1.3550. Trading tips Buy positions can be opened after consolidation of the pair above the level of 1.3445 with the target of 1.3485. The formation of the uptrend is possible after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3485, from which the price may go up to the level of 1.3550. Sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.3405.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend After failing to break out the level of 103.00, the pair USD/JPY started the correction. However, the Yen exceeded resistance level of the yearly downtrend, therefore, in the short-term the pair may go up to the level of 105.44. On the daily chart indicators give mixed signals. MACD histogram is above the zero line; its volumes are increasing, indicating that uptrend will continue. The signal lines of Stochastic have crossed and left overbought zone, moving downwards. Support and resistance Support levels: 102.33 (lows of 1 August, Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%), 102.05 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%, moving average with the period of 100), 101.8 (Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%, moving average with the period of 21). Resistance levels are the local highs of 102.73, 103.08 and 103.39. Trading tips Short positions are recommended after breaking out the level of 102.33 with the target of 102.30. Buy positions can be placed after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.80.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Following the significant decline, the British Pound had slightly corrected up to 1.6870, but then fell to the level of 1.6840. Further decline in the pair has been prevented by positive data on business activity index in the service sector of Great Britain, which also cause the rise in the pair GBP/USD up to resistance level of 1.6880. However, the pair failed to consolidate at this level as this requires additional momentum. The data on the British industrial production, which will be released today, may provide such a momentum. Tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of England is unlikely to give a surprise, so the market is expected to be quiet. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels are 1.6870 and 1.6880. The latter one is the key level and if the price consolidates above this level, the pair will be able to reach the level of 1.6940, or even 1.7000. Support levels are 1.6860, 1.6840 and 1.6820. Target level of the “bears” is 1.6800. Breakdown of this level will enable the Pound to continue the decline up to 1.6745 and 1.6685. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.6880 with the targets of 1.6940 and 1.7000. Sell positions can be opened below the level of 1.6800.
Ilya Laschenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday, the currency pair USD/JPY had a not very good day. The pair has been declining throughout the whole day. In the evening, following the release of US news on trading balance and oil inventories, the pair sharply went down up to support level of 101.80. However, after that the pair won back the lost positions. At the closing session the pair traded near the level of 102.00. This morning after the opening of the Asian trading session, the pair tried to break out the level of 102.20, which coincides with Fibonacci level of 61.8%. The “bulls” managed to go up and at the moment the pair is traded at the level of 102.25. Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will be held a press-conference devoted to the monetary policy, which may change movement direction of the Japanese currency. Support and resistance Technical indicators show that the pair is undergoing correction, which is nearing completion. After that the pair will try to break down the level of 101.80. In case of the opposite situation the pair will go to resistance level of 102.80. Resistance levels: 102.35, 102.50, 102.70 and 102.80. Support levels: 102.20, 102.00, 101.90 and 101.80. Trading tips It is likely that the pair will move in the channel for some time; therefore, it makes sense to place pending limits at the levels of 102.60 and 101.90. Short positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 101.80; long positions are advisable after consolidation of the price above the level of 103.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: geopolitical situation is the priority No 1 Current trend On Thursday European statistics were disappointing, while American data was above expectations. However, despite this fact the pair failed to consolidate below the local lows and the key support level of 1.3370. As it became known industrial output index in Germany was only 0.5%. The interest rate decision of the ECB as well as the press-conference had hardly affected the rate of the pair. Sanctions against Russia are not favourable for EU either, as the losses of EU can amount to about 15 billion euro. Now the main catalyst is geopolitical tension and sanctions, which not only affect European economy, but also scare away potential investors. Today, European currency has slightly grown against the USD. Euro is trading at the level of 1.3390. It seems that trading on Friday will be quiet, as important new has been released and investors are prepared to have a weekend. Trading volume in the market is decreasing, which means that volatility is not going to be high. Support and resistance It is likely that the pair EUR/USD will continue to trade near the key support level of 1.3370 not being able to regain. In future the USD is likely to strengthen and the demand for Euro is likely to decrease. In such case the pair will decline to the target levels of 1.3300 (1.3250). Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3170 and 1.3130. Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3510, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3820 and 1.3900. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending sell orders from the levels of 1.3400 and 1.3450 and take profit at the levels of 1.3300-1.3250.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: general analysis Current trend The price of Brent fell last Friday, after the news that the USA are planning to attack militants in Iraq. Investors took this news as an indication of the upcoming stability in Iraq, one of the largest oil production countries in the world. Under the pressure from this news Brent fell below the level of $105.00 per barrel. Important news, which can affect the price of Brent, is not scheduled for release today. Geopolitical situation remains to be the dominating factor of the oil price formation. Support and resistance On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating the lull in the market. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are gradually increasing, which is a sign of the further decline in price. Support levels: 104.70, 104.00 and 103.30. Resistance levels: 105.30, 106.05 and 106.80. Trading tips If the “bears” manage to exceed resistance level of 104.70, next target will be at the level of 104.00. Sell positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 104.70 with the target of 104.00.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: Pound has started to win back losses Current trend At the beginning of the week the British currency tries to regain losses against the USD after the significant decline. The pair is supported by investors, who started to take profit on short positions for the pair GBP/USD near the key support level. In addition, the USD has dropped in price amid yesterday’s poor data on the US labour market. The number of vacancies and labour turnover in the USA was below expectations. Despite the decrease of the unemployment rate in the UK, the pair dropped due to poor data on average wages. The Pound is still oversold and any negative data can affect the rate of the British currency. Today, attention shall be paid to inflationary report and the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mr. Mark Carney. US index of retail sales and inventories will also become known today. Support and resistance range and the key resistance level of 1.6920. In future downtrend will continue with the target level of 1.6550. Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6700, 1.6660 and 1.6550. Resistance levels: 1.6815, 1.6920, 1.7000, 1.7060, 1.7150 and 1.7180. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending sell positions from the level of 1.6900 (1.6920) and take profit at the level of 1.6660.
Dmitriy Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited